2014 Batted Ball Distance Surgers

Because I love examining how far batters hit their fly balls and homers, I’m going to continue the hop through the leaderboard for more analytical fun. Two years ago, Chad Young found that it is very difficult for a batter to sustain a surge in batted ball distance. Between aging and good old regression to the mean, batters who gained 15+ feet in distance gave half of that back in year three. The sample used in the study was certainly small, but I doubt the conclusion would change much with a larger data set. With that in mind, here are your 2014 distance surgers of at least 15 feet.

Marcell Ozuna is your biggest gainer and the only one topping 30 feet. For a guy who routinely posted ISO marks above .200 throughout his minor league career, his complete power outage during his debut was a surprise. Then again, Ozuna recorded just 47 plate appearances at the Double-A level and had nary a walk to the Triple-A batter’s box, so perhaps it shouldn’t have been unexpected. His 2014 performance was simply a rebound back to what his minor league power suggested he was capable of. It’s still pretty remarkable that this guy has had 47 plate appearances above High-A and posted a respectable .338 wOBA.

Boy did Drew Stubbs love the thin air of Colorado. He posted a .255 ISO there, double his away mark, and a ridiculous 24% HR/FB rate, about triple his away mark! He’ll need injuries to help him clear 500 plate appearances, but he should again be a nice asset in NL-Only leagues. Just know that his .404 BABIP is going to come crashing down.

It’s the Travis Snider coming out party! It happened later than expected, but don’t forget that he’ll still be just 27 this year. He would make for a pretty intriguing power sleeper if he found his way to another team and more favorable park. Because now he’ll be battling Gregory Polanco for playing time and it would be a surprise if Snider kept Polanco in the minors all year.

It’s cool that balls go a long way when Tyler Flowers makes contact with them, but unfortunately it happens quite infrequently. His career high Contact% is just 67.1% and best SwStk% mark is an inflated 14.9%.

And there’s Devin Mesoraco, the breakout star. After posting .200+ ISO marks at every minor league in 2010, we were waiting for signs of life from the former top prospect. The power surge came with a big jump in strikeout rate and SwStk% and drop in Contact% though. He sold out for power. It’s anyone’s guess which version will show up in 2015.

Too bad Carlos Santana lost his catcher eligibility. He’s quite the offensive force, if only he could get his BABIP up to respectable levels.

After posting distance marks above 300 feet from 2010 to 2012, following three straight seasons of marks above 290 feet, Matt Kemp’s distance fell to a career low of about 285 feet in 2013. Injuries are almost surely to blame. But he proved that his health has returned as his distance rebounded back to the 300 foot plateau. Unfortunately, he now finds himself calling home the park that ranked in a tie for third worst in right-handed home run park factor. He’s not sniffing another 20% HR/FB rate.

Poor Mike Moustakas, seemingly showing progression, but the results just keep getting worse. Aside from a career high batted ball distance, he lowered his IFFB% again from mile high levels to just only like 3/4 of a mile levels, cut his strikeout rate and increased his walk rate. But his BABIP has been in free fall, overshadowing any of that progress. He still has a long way to go to return to relevancy in mixed leagues, but, 2015 AL-Only sleeper?