Revisiting My $9 Pitching Staff

Before the season began, I decided to have a little fun by constructing a fictional $9 pitching staff using the winning bids from the 15 team Tout Wars mixed auction league. I didn’t bother to consider any relievers as speculating on starting pitching breakouts in significantly more exciting. So without further ado, let’s take a look at how my selections panned out, with Zach Sanders’ dollar values indicated. It’s not perfect since his values are based on 12 team leagues, but good enough.

James Paxton – ($3)

Paxton’s value loss certainly wasn’t due to ineffectiveness on the mound. Instead, the southpaw was limited to just 74.0 innings due to a strained lat. But he was quite good when healthy, posting a 3.04 ERA and a solid overall skill set highlighted by a 55% ground ball rate. His injury shortened season will depress his price in 2015 and should make him a good purchase.

Tommy Milone – ($9)

A strikeout rate collapse was behind Milone’s poor fantasy season, as his already poor velocity declined even further and he missed time late in the year with a sore shoulder. It’s not crazy to believe that the shoulder affected him all year. If healthy, he could earn a bit of value in AL-Only leagues, but the Twins defense isn’t going to do him any favors. I wouldn’t touch him in a mixed league given his soft skill set.

Ubaldo Jimenez – ($12)

Three for three so far in picking negative earners, awesome! Jimenez proved that his rebound in 2013 was a fluke as his strikeout rate dropped right back to pre-2013 levels and his walk rate ballooned. His fastball velocity dropped yet again, now for the fourth straight season. Without the ground ball skills he possessed earlier in his career and a big fastball, he has little else to lean on since his control has never been good. If you haven’t already, I think it’s time to move along for good.

Tanner Roark – $14

It’s about time I picked a winner. Frankly, I’m surprised I even picked him at all, as he’s not the type I’m typically a fan of. Oddly, I liked him in part due to his ground ball tendency, but that completely disappeared this season. His strikeout rate also fell, while his walk rate dropped only slightly, and not enough to offset the loss of grounders and strikeouts. Yet, he was fortunate enough to post an ERA more than a full run below his SIERA. Hey, I’ll take it, whether his results are sustainable or not! But he’s an easy bust candidate next year.

Wily Peralta – $6

Two in a row, I’m on a roll! I reviewed Peralta’s season a couple of weeks ago and there are the seeds for something exciting here. But as with many young pitchers, the key will be the progress of his control and development of a third pitch (his change-up).

Tanner Scheppers – ($16)

I looked at Scheppers yesterday when reviewing my spring K% breakout candidates and unfortunately elbow issues limited him to just 23.0 innings. His 9.00 ERA was due to poor luck all around over a tiny sample.

Garrett Richards – $15

Boom. Richards was one of this year’s biggest breakouts as he was finally able to turn his quality stuff into boat loads of strikeouts. His knee injury, though, makes him a risk as we won’t know exactly how that will affect his velocity and repertoire.

Jon Niese – $1

The first $1 guy to actually earn exactly $1! Niese did exactly what he has been doing since 2012 — deliver solid ratios that excite few, but remain a stabilizing force on fantasy squads across the land. But remember that the fences are coming in again at Citi Field, so Mets pitchers are a bit less attractive now than they had been.

Ricky Nolasco – ($17)

This is what happens when you scavenge from the bargain bin. It wasn’t just the 5.39 ERA that hurt, but the fact that he posted those putrid results over 159.0 innings. We could mostly blame his horrendous .351 BABIP, as you combine a guy who typically suffered from a high BABIP with a poor defense, and disaster strikes.

So four of the nine pitchers earned positive value, two of which earned their owners significant profits en route to top 20 pitcher status. This is a perfect example of why it’s worth stockpiling cheap pitching, whether on the back half of your staff or on your bench. It’s much less rare that a cheap pitcher delivers a top 20 season than it is for a hitter.





Mike Podhorzer is the 2015 Fantasy Sports Writers Association Baseball Writer of the Year. He produces player projections using his own forecasting system and is the author of the eBook Projecting X 2.0: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance, which teaches you how to project players yourself. His projections helped him win the inaugural 2013 Tout Wars mixed draft league. Follow Mike on Twitter @MikePodhorzer and contact him via email.

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Jon
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Jon

It actually took me awhile to figure out that dollar values in parenthesis were negative dollar values. I know that is standard convention in some places but I think it would be clearer if you used this for negative values… Pitcher name: -$7

You made some pretty good calls though!

Jason B
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Jason B

Agreed, I was super confused when I saw that Ubaldo had apparently earned $12.

Also, are the dollar values based on their stats being prorated across an entire season’s performance? That is, is it saying that Scheppers would have earned -$16 if he had pitched a full complement of innings (whatever that would be), or did he actually earn -$16 in just 23 IP, in which case he would have returned a mind-boggling -$70 over 100 IP (assuming he were somehow left to flounder in the rotation with his 9.00 ERA, which is pretty unlikely).

james
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james

It is common in accounting. If i had not taken a few accounting courses (mostly taxation classes in law school), I would have been lost too.

In fantasy baseball it is more common to just see -10 than (10)