2014 Batted Ball Distance Decliners

Yesterday, I discussed the hitters who enjoyed the largest surges in batted ball distance compared to their 2013 campaigns. Today I take a look at the other side of the coin, the decliners. In the 114 player sample that lost at least 15 feet of distance in Chad Young’s study, the hitters gained back about a third of their lost distance in year three. So a distance loss is more permanent than a gain, but players generally bounce back toward their historical marks.

Name 2014 Distance 2013 Distance Diff
Mike Carp 256.91 294.89 -37.98
Raul Ibanez 265.83 297.62 -31.79
Dan Uggla 265.66 296.58 -30.92
Jose Tabata 256.49 286.78 -30.29
Hanley Ramirez 279.62 309.03 -29.41
Ryan Zimmerman 280.17 309.31 -29.14
Jean Segura 263.23 292.08 -28.85
Norichika Aoki 247.99 276.77 -28.78
Hank Conger 258.30 286.56 -28.26
David Wright 265.66 291.35 -25.69
Daniel Descalso 248.90 273.72 -24.82
Eric Hosmer 272.36 296.97 -24.61
Elvis Andrus 246.08 269.42 -23.34
Wil Myers 270.33 293.01 -22.68
Derek Dietrich 266.26 288.82 -22.56
Jason Heyward 265.45 287.24 -21.79
Will Venable 258.16 279.60 -21.44
Jason Kipnis 266.02 287.12 -21.10

Hanley Ramirez’s power spurt seemingly came out of nowhere, but the forces of gravity did its work, bringing his distance back in line with previous years. Fenway Park won’t be much more favorable for his home run output, though it will certainly help boost his doubles total.

Ryan Zimmerman posted a career low in batted ball distance, likely due to injury. In the two mock drafts I’ve participated in, he’s become a forgotten man, and at age 30, isn’t over the hill just yet. For the first time in a while, he may actually be a potential source of profit.

Whoever took over Jean Segura’s body during the early part of 2014 swiftly left. I would like him significantly more as a bounce back candidate if he wasn’t essentially locked into the bottom of the order. It’s going to be awfully tough for him to move back into the leadoff slot.

Ooof, David Wright. This is the first time his distance has slipped below 285 feet and we could be sure the shoulder is to blame. Unfortunately, he escaped surgery and is going the rehab route, which is risky. Not knowing exactly how healthy he’s going to be in 2015 means that he needs to come at a significant discount to be worth rostering.

Eric Hosmer’s distance was trending in a beautiful upward direction heading into 2014, and then things came crashing down. If he continued to steal bases, then at least we knew there was some downside cushion. But slipping into the low single digits mean we have to hope that both his power and speed return for him to be much more than replacement level in mixed leagues. I think his power will rebound, but have no idea if he’s going to be willing to run again. Luckily, he should come rather cheaply, so it won’t take much to find out.

It wasn’t just the wrist injury that sapped Wil Myers‘ power, as he was terrible before it happened as well. Given his age and minor league track record, I’d figure a rebound was in store, but he moves to a slightly tougher ball park for right-handed homers.

Seriously, what happened to Jason Heyward? He displayed all the skills of a future superstar, and then his power went MIA. Heyward’s new home of Busch Stadium is less favorable for left-handed homers than the neutral Turner Field, so the park switch won’t help contribute to a rebound. He returned to the 20-steal plateau to keep his fantasy value afloat, but he’s been so up and down in the speed department that it’s hard to really know what to expect. Expect more power and less speed is as specific as I will get.

Jason Kipnis missed about a month early in the season due to an oblique injury and you wonder if that affected his ability to drive the ball. That he still loves to run and has been quite successful at stealing bags means that a healthier season with some better BABIP luck could push him back into the top five among second basemen.





Mike Podhorzer is the 2015 Fantasy Sports Writers Association Baseball Writer of the Year. He produces player projections using his own forecasting system and is the author of the eBook Projecting X 2.0: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance, which teaches you how to project players yourself. His projections helped him win the inaugural 2013 Tout Wars mixed draft league. Follow Mike on Twitter @MikePodhorzer and contact him via email.

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J Black
9 years ago

Heyward getting drilled in the face has mentally changed him at the plate.

Ron
9 years ago
Reply to  Mike Podhorzer

I believe I remember seeing a broadcast show that Heyward now stands further away from the plate than he did before getting hit in the face.