The preseason reviews continue to trickle in and today I’ll recap my list of xBB% underachievers. Using my xBB% equation, I identified pitchers whose walk rates were well above their xBB%, suggesting likely improvement in 2015. Let’s see how the equation did for the names I discussed.
Heading into the season, Addison Russell was ranked as the Cubs’ second best prospect and third best prospect in baseball. After finishing last year at the Double-A level, he figured to open the year at Triple-A and remain there for the majority, if not all, of the 2015 season. But that didn’t happen.
It’s second base week on RotoGraphs and that gives me the opportunity to perform the first review of my 2015 Pod Projection breakdowns. Anthony Rendon enjoyed a breakout year in both real and fantasy baseball in 2014 and given his previous top prospect pedigree, was then highly valued heading into this season. At the time of my Pod Projection, Rendon was being drafted 13th overall in NFBC leagues. Unfortunately, a knee injury that was supposed to only keep him out for a week or two to begin the season dragged on and on. He didn’t make his 2015 debut until early June and then missed another month with a quad strain. Ultimately, he finished ranked 35th in value…among just the second basemen!
For the first time this year, I decided to compare my Pod Projections to Steamer and discuss the players we disagreed on most. Of the hitters we both projected, it was clear I was much more optimistic than Steamer on the whole. However, for Jose Abreu I was actually significantly more pessimistic.
In the review of this series, I will be including my original Pod Projection, and Steamer counting stat projections extrapolated over the same number of plate appearances that I had projected. However, I included Steamer’s actual PA projection in that column. Also included are the player’s 2015 stats, plus the counting stats extrapolated over the number of PA I projected.
Miguel Cabrera hasn’t just been one of baseball’s best hitters over the last ten years, he has also remained amazingly consistent. As fantasy owners, we’re used to our top picks disappointing us, but Cabrera has never posted a wOBA below .374 in a full season. And yet, this was a season of firsts for Cabrera, which despite an above his career average .413 wOBA, resulted in a loss for all those who paid top dollar for his services on draft day.
Yesterday, I recapped my preseason starting pitcher strikeout rate upside target list using my xK% equation. So naturally today I’ll review the other side of that list, those pitchers who posted strikeout rates well below their xK% marks, which suggested potential downside for the 2015 season.
Review season continues this week and I begin by analyzing how well my xK% equation performed at identifying starting pitchers with strikeout rate upside in 2015. When I originally created my upside target group, it wasn’t a straight list of the starters whose xK% marks most exceeded their actual K% marks, but rather the more interesting names that were fantasy relevant that appeared at or near the top.
In the majority of fantasy leagues, Jonathan Lucroy was likely valued as a top five catcher. His strong batting average, respectable power, and best of all, consistently high plate appearance totals, made him a top option at the position. But as the books closed on the 2015 season, Lucroy finished just 12th, the last man to accrue any value in 12-team mixed leagues that start just one backstop. We’re used to catchers disappointing, which is why many fantasy owners choose to “punt” the position and just go cheap, refusing to pay the market rates for the elite. So let’s find out what went wrong.
It’s highly unlikely that Welington Castillo was drafted in your shallow mixed league this season. And heck, he was the last pick in the 15 team LABR mixed draft. He wasn’t even the starting catcher for the team he started the year with and he ended up being a member of three different organizations by season’s end. And yet after all this, he still managed to earn the 11th highest value among catchers.
Remember this site? Of course you do. This was one of the many “facts” we learned about Matt Wieters:
Before reporting to Camden Yards, Matt Wieters traveled through the time-space continuum and righted all the wrongs in Orioles history: He wiped Cleon Jones’ shoe polish off the ball, settled the 1981 baseball strike so they could win the division, straight-jacketed Jeffrey Maier, and intercepted Roberto Alomar’s loogie before it hit its mark.
After crushing minor league pitching in 2008, Wieters was all the rage. And that hype train was what spawned this hilarious-at-the-time page. Now, it looks silly in hindsight.
