Yesterday, I reviewed the results of the wOBA forecast showdown, filled with the hitters that THE BAT X was most bullish on compared to Steamer. Today, we’ll flip over to Steamer’s wOBA favorites.
Let’s move on to batter wOBA forecasts as we review the results of the 2023 projection showdown, pitting THE BAT X against Steamer in various statistical categories. Today, we’ll begin by reviewing THE BAT X’s wOBA favorites, as compared to Steamer. While wOBA is typically not a fantasy category, it strongly correlates with home runs, RBI, runs scored, and batting average. And of course, keeps a hitter in the lineup if it’s high, while puts the hitter at risk of losing playing time if low. Let’s now find out how THE BAT X’s wOBA favorites performed.
Yesterday, I reviewed THE BAT X’s runs scored favorites, as part of the 2023 projection showdown, pitting their projections against Steamer’s forecasts. Now let’s find out how Steamer’s runs scored favorites ended up performing.
Today, we move on to reviewing the runs scored forecasts as part of the 2023 projection showdown pitting THE BAT X against Steamer in various fantasy categories. Just like RBI, runs scored is heavily driven by lineup spot. While the extra plate appearances for hitters atop the lineup doesn’t matter for this analysis because we’re keeping a constant 650 PAs, the guys at the top of the lineup benefit from better hitters behind them to drive them in. So they are likely to score a higher percentage of the time when they are on base versus hitters in the bottom half of the lineup. So let’s keep that in mind when reviewing the actual runs scored here as a change in lineup spot may be the cause of exceeding or missing the projections. We start with THE BAT X’s runs scored favorites.
Yesterday, I reviewed the hitters that THE BAT X was most bullish on for RBI compared to Steamer. Let’s now flip over to Steamer’s RBI favorites.
Today, we transition our 2023 projection showdown review to runs batted in. This is a fun one to look at because lineup spot (and obviously the strength of the hitters ahead of the player in question) dramatically influences RBI projections. So I’m always curious how a system forecasts a player’s lineup spot and whether that forecasted spot changes as we head into opening day. A system can’t always assume a hitter will hit in the same spot as the previous year, so there has to be some sort of awareness of where the hitter is hitting during spring training and adjustments made if necessary. Sometimes we see a speedy guy with a mediocre OBP flip-flop between leading off and hitting ninth and where he ultimately ends up will influence all his counting stats. As a result, it is imperative that a computer projection system knows where a hitter is expected to hit in the lineup.
Yesterday, I reviewed THE BAT X batting average favorites, as part of my recap of the 2023 projection showdown, pitting the system against Steamer in various fantasy categories. THE BAT X was closer for five of six players in which it was most bullish on. Let’s now check in on the hitters Steamer was most optimistic on for batting average compared to THE BAT X.
Let’s continue on reviewing the 2023 projection showdown series, pitting THE BAT X projections against the Steamer forecast in various statistical categories. Today, we’ll move on to batting average. Batting average projections are tough as they rely heavily on BABIP, which is driven a great deal by the whims of lady luck. So over a small sample of players, the system that proved closer here isn’t necessarily better at projecting batting average. So that’s the caveat. With that out of the way, let’s get to the players that THE BAT X was projecting for a significantly higher batting average than Steamer and find out which system ended up closer.
Yesterday, I reviewed the five hitters THE BAT X was most bullish on for stolen bases compared to Steamer projections. Now let’s flip over to Steamer’s favorites. As a reminder, this exercise isn’t as enlightening as the exercises in the various other categories I hosted a showdown for. That’s because leaguewide stolen bases were up 41% compared to the 2022 season, so the typical stolen base forecast is going to be lower than the actual total. Let’s see if that means that Steamer forecasts proved closer here more often, just as THE BAT X took four of five wins yesterday.
Let’s continue reviewing the results of the 2023 projection showdown, pitting THE BAT X projections against Steamer forecasts. Today we move on to stolen bases. The various rule changes implemented for this season helped increase leaguewide stolen bases by a whopping 41%. So, whichever system was more bullish on any particular player’s stolen bases is far more likely to have been proven closer as a result. Let’s see if that’s the case here. We start with THE BAT X’s stolen base favorites. Did their projections for these players prove closer in a clean sweep and will Steamer show the same results tomorrow? Let’s find out!
