Sometimes it’s obvious when a hitter’s BABIP is due for a rebound or regression, but that isn’t always the case. For the first time before this season, I decided to discuss some of the hitters whose BABIP marks looked relatively sustainable, but my new xBABIP equation disagreed. Let’s see how this group ended up doing.
Yesterday, I reviewed the 2017 starting pitcher walk rate improvers using my updated xBB% equation. Today, I’ll recap my walk rate regressers, which includes those starting pitchers whose actual walk rates were significantly better than their xBB% marks.
In late January, I updated my pitcher xBB% was include and additional variable, 3-0%, which is the percentage of a pitcher’s plate appearances in which a 3-0 count is seen. Since Alex Chamberlain had already published such a formula, which built upon my original equation, I simply updated the variables of his. I then used the new formula to highlight a group of starting pitchers with an xBB% significantly lower their actual 2016 marks. This group was then discussed as potential walk rate improvers in 2017. Let’s see how they did.
Yesterday, I reviewed my 2017 starting pitcher strikeout rate upsider list, which produced embarrassing results. Let’s hope the downsider results look much improved. Once again, this list was compiled by using my pitcher xK% equation to identify starters whose 2016 xK% marks were significantly above their actual K% marks.
At the beginning of January, I used my xK% equation to identify six starting pitchers with significant strikeout rate upside in 2017. Let’s see how these pitchers actually performed.
Alas, we reach the final position to dive into for this year’s recap of Pod’s Picks & Pans. We finish with the starting pitchers, a group that always garners varying opinions. Let’s see how the players I was most bullish and bearish on versus the RotoGraphs consensus actually performed.
Today we complete the hitter side of the 2017 Pod’s Picks & Pans with the outfielders. Let’s see how my rankings on the players I disagree with the RG consensus performed.
Let’s finish the infield by reviewing my 2017 Pod’s Picks at second base and shortstop.
We start with my picks at each of the two positions, those players I was significantly more bullish than the RotoGraphs Consensus:
We continue our look back at my picks and pans, this time with the infield corners. Refresh your memory by checking out my original article.
A regular season in the books does not mean my work is over. I still have 27 recaps of pre-season articles to share! Yes, 27. Hope you’ll stay with me through the playoffs and the NFL season to grade my advice performance and many, many lists. We’ll start with the Pod’s Picks & Pans series, which compares my rankings to the RotoGraphs consensus, highlighting those players whose rankings I differ from most. I’ll use the final CBS rankings as the determinant of end of season value. Let’s see who was right on those headscratching hitters at the catcher position.
