Author Archive: Mike Podhorzer

On Monday, we launched Fantasy Baseball Week on The Hardball Times, and I started things off by researching whether last season’s breakouts were solid investments the following year. Spoiler alert: they are actually terrible investments. Of course, that’s as a group. That means that not every breakout from the previous season is going to fall flat the following year. So let’s discuss some of the big breakouts from last season and try to figure out whether they end up as part of the poor investment bust group or hold onto their gains.

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The 2018 Pod Projections are now available! For the first time, the package includes NFBC ADP, along with all historical Pod-developed xMetrics. My projections are based on the methodology shared in my eBook Projecting X 2.0, and the process continues to evolve and improve (thanks Statcast!).

2018 Pod Projections Index:
Shohei Ohtani
Tommy Pham

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Last week and earlier this week, I highlighted a group of hitters who my Pod Projections projected stolen base upside and stolen base downside compared to Steamer projections. Until I performed the comparison, I had no idea I was so bearish on steals, relative to both Steamer and to 2017.

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Yesterday, I transitioned my Pod Projections vs Steamer projections series to the pitching side. I compared our ERA forecasts and discussed 11 pitchers with upside in the metric. Today, it’s time to check on a smattering of hurlers I’m projecting for a worse ERA than Steamer.

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It’s pitching time! After comparing my hitter projections to Steamer, let’s now check in on the pitchers. I’ll start by comparing starting pitcher ERA from my Pod Projections with Steamer. I have decided to only list and discuss pitchers I have projected for a sub-4.00 ERA. Do you really care if I project a pitcher for a 4.40 ERA versus 5.50 by Steamer? Nope. I also left out two free agents, Jake Arrieta and Alex Cobb, who would have made this list.

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Last Thursday, I highlighted nine hitters my Pod Projections suggested enjoyed stolen base upside when compared to Steamer projections. Today, I’ll check in on the hitters who my forecasts hint at downside versus Steamer.

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Today we continue our comparison of my Pod Projections with Steamer projections. This time I’m going to check in on stolen bases and begin by identifying nine hitters that I’m projecting for a lower PA/SB rate. Stolen bases totals are primarily fueled by three factors — on base percentage (which itself is driven by a variety of components), how often the player attempts a steal once he reaches base, and how successful he is when attempting a theft. With so many moving parts, it’s sometimes very difficult to forecast stolen bases, especially for certain types of players, like the big sluggers who suddenly decide to run (Manny Machado in 2015 and Bryce Harper in 2016).

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Yesterday, I discussed nine hitters that my Pod Projections forecast for a lower AB/HR ratio than Steamer, giving them home run upside, in my opinion. Today, I’ll check in on a group of hitters I see as possessing significant downside compared with Steamer.

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Last year, I transformed my series pitting my Pod Projections against Steamer projections into a categorical comparison. I’m going to continue that this year, but instead of comparing counting stats extrapolated over my plate appearance projection, I’m going to go straight to ratios. As an ardent supporter of ratios over counting stats, I have no idea why I didn’t do this to begin with!

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The 2018 Pod Projections are now available! For the first time, the package includes NFBC ADP, along with all historical Pod-developed xMetrics. My projections are based on the methodology shared in my eBook Projecting X 2.0, and the process continues to evolve and improve (thanks Statcast!).

2018 Pod Projections Index:
Shohei Ohtani

Read the rest of this entry »