Reviewing 2017 Pod Projections: Trea Turner

Moving along on our recaps of my 2017 Pod Projections, we stumble upon Trea Turner, who delivered a fantasy half-season back in 2016 that made him the talk of the town heading into 2017 drafts. He was so darn good, he was generally a first round pick. How much, if any, regression was I projecting and how did that compare to his actual results? Let’s find out.

Plate Appearances: 657 Projected vs 447 Actual

Turner missed significant time due to both a strained hamstring and wrist injury, which ultimately meant that he didn’t exactly deliver first round value. But, he certainly was on pace to provide such value when he was actually on the field.

BB%: 6.9% Projected vs 6.7% Actual

Turner’s plate discipline metrics suggested much better than that low 4.3% during his 2016 half season, leading to my projection for a jump. Amazingly, I almost nailed the walk rate. He actually helped his cause by cutting down on his O-Swing% dramatically and I think there’s more room for walk rate upside.

K%: 19.4% Projected vs 17.9% Actual

The reduction in swinging at pitches outside the zone helped him beat my strikeout rate projection, and amazingly, this was actually the lowest mark he has posted at any stint during his entire professional career. I wouldn’t project continued improvement yet, but some degree of pullback.

GB%/LD%/FB%: 45.5% / 22.5% / 33% Projected vs 51.7% / 14.8% / 33.5% Actual

Almost nailed the fly ball rate, but he literally turned his liners into grounders, which isn’t absolutely terrible for a speedster, but obviously not ideal. His line drive rate should rebound in 2018, and that will help his BABIP, discussed next.

BABIP: .345 Projected vs .329 Actual

Obviously, the knee-jerk reaction to Turner’s huge .388 BABIP in 2016 was that it was driven by a heaping of good fortune. But, xBABIP actually disagreed, suggesting he deserved something not too far lower at .364. My projection was therefore quite aggressive at .345, and even despite the drastic dip in line drive rate, he still managed a .329 BABIP. He was a BABIP monster in the minors too, so this looks like his floor over the next several years.

HR/FB Ratio: 10.0% Projected vs 9.9% Actual

While we knew Turner possessed tons of speed, his 16.7% HR/FB rate in 2016 was a huge surprise. His xHR/FB rate was well below his actual mark at 12.7%, so I knew regression was in the cards, but how much was the question. I leaned heavily on his weak minor league record and settled on 10%, which proved almost perfectly accurate. Since his Brls/BBE declined from 2016 and xHR/FB just about matched his actual mark, I’m not going to project much of a bounce back.

Runs and RBI: 90 and 67 Projected vs 75 and 45 (110 and 66 extrapolated to my PA projection) Actual

My projection was based upon the assumption that he would hit second in the batting order. Instead, he opened the season hitting leadoff and because of the injury to Adam Eaton, he remained there the vast majority of the season. So he was able to crush my runs scored projection on the per plate appearance level, and still hit my RBI projection on the nose, even though hitting lead off is typically a negative for RBI versus hitting second.

SB: 39 Projected vs 46 (68 extrapolated) Actual

Turner attempted a stolen base during his time with the Nationals in 2016 more often than ever before, so I projected regression in 2016. Instead, attempted a steal at the same rate of plate appearances despite the fact that his OBP plummeted. So he was even more steal happy! Imagine if he remained healthy all year and went something like 15/65? He may have finished as the top fantasy player. Since he has been such an effective basestealer, it’s hard to guess if and when he might slow down a bit.

Below is a comparison of all the preseason projections and the actual results, with highlights for the system with the closest forecast:

So for counting stat comparison purposes, I extrapolated his stats over the 657 plate appearances I had forecasted. It’s pretty amazing how close the systems were on Turner’s homers and RBI. One system perfectly nailed the RBI, while two systems were only off by one! Obviously, none of us came close to the steals, but the Fans being the optimists were the closest. We were all also amazingly similar in walk rate.

It always shocks me when my projection, especially for a young player with a limited track record, ends up being so close to the systems. I never look at the computer projections first before coming up with my projection and most of the time don’t even look after my projection is finished. So when I do look and see them so close, it’s always a surprise.

Look at that, I was closest on BABIP simply because I was the lowest! The notoriously aggressive regresser Steamer was actually highest at .355, wow.