I’ve written about Scott Kazmir a little in my daily columns before. Mike Podhorzer wrote about him – selling him high, specifically – this week. I’m a little bit more of a believer than Mike, I believe, but I can definitely see his side of it. If someone is willing to give you an ace/# 2 like package, I might have a hard time turning it down. I’m less worried about his ability to get whiffs than Mike is, though. Nearly all of my concerns are based on his ability to last 180 or more innings.

Kazmir has currently thrown 68.2 innings – tied for the 29th most among starters (at this moment). He made it through 158 last year. In 2010, his last season in the bigs before his epic comeback, he threw 150 innings. Kazmir’s body hasn’t allowed him to throw more than 160 innings since 2007. In other words, Scott Kazmir hasn’t thrown more than 160 innings since Kanye West released Graduation – which is a great album. There is a song called Barry Bonds on it, after all.

It may seem like I’m being harsh on Kazmir, but I’m not trying to be. It’s just…2007, man! I want and need Kazmir to throw 200 innings this year. It doesn’t feel like his comeback has gotten enough attention despite the fact that it is an absolutely remarkable feat. I understand selling high on him, but as for me – someone who only owns him in one league, at a good price,  with a team with no glaring holes, and receiving light offers – I’m just going to ride him until he throws me off and leaves me in a ditch somewhere.

P.S. on The Show, my created pitcher has Kazmir’s mechanics, so I’m very dedicated in my devotion.

Read the rest of this entry »

We’ve reached the points of the season where we have a pretty good idea of where our teams stand. Things can still change, but for the most part you should have a pretty good idea of how good your current roster is.

With that in mind, join me in the comments below and let’s talk about our favorite players to own so far. Try to stay away from the usual suspects: Miguel Cabrera, Mike Trout, Andrew McCutchen, etc. I’ll kick this thing off.

I’m doing my first Ottoneu league this year – currently sitting in third place. Without a doubt my best value has been Brandon Moss. During our draft we took a fifteen minute break. When we returned it was my turn to nominate a player for bidding. I nominated Moss hoping to catch some people sleeping and because most of us had blown through a ton of our money. I’m guessing the entire league was still zoned out, because no one bid. Perhaps everyone was waiting on someone else to bid, or taking roster construction into play. Nonetheless, I ended up with a $1 Brandon Moss. Dividends.

In my other auction draft – 12 teams; 5×5 with OBP, QS, and S+HLD in replace of AVG, W, and SV – I have a $2 Christian Yelich. He was only that cheap because he was the 234th player nominated. So by that point, many of the owners had their lineups set or were running low on funds. Yelich has cooled off a little of late, but he’s already earned his keep. Oh, and it’s a keeper league. So if I decide to keep him he’ll only cost $6 next season; not bad what looks to be a player with a shot at a 20/20 season perhaps as early as this year.

Read the rest of this entry »

Usually I riff a little on pitching. There are two reasons behind that: I love pitching and I find it easier to analyze because the pitcher, for the most part, controls most of their fate. Sure defense plays a role, but I usually look at stats that take that into account in the first place.

If there was ever a pitcher that embodies “peripherals are more important at this stage of the season,” it’s Shelby Miller. If you focus on traditional stats, Miller hasn’t been that bad. He’s racked up six wins (!) and has a 3.18 ERA. As we know, that doesn’t tell the whole story. Miller’s been very, very lucky; not just with babip, either. Miller’s wiggled out of trouble a ton, evidenced by his 87.7% LOB%. His strikeout rate has plummeted ~5% while his walk rate has increased ~5%. All in all, Miller’s k-bb% (perhaps my favorite metric) has decreased nearly 10 percentage points. Not good.

Surely you, the astute Fangraphs reader, have known for a little while that Miller’s pitching on borrowed time. If you haven’t shopped him yet, do it quickly.

Read the rest of this entry »

Memorial Day is behind us. Hopefully your long weekend treated you well. Fortunately there was a full schedule yesterday; today, the same. Brandon Moss kept on raking yesterday. As did Derek Norris, who has been the best hitting back stop by quite a margin. The Athletics are fantastic, in case you were wondering what my point was. I will continue to keep gushing about them.

Read the rest of this entry »

I was going to riff a little on Corey Kluber today, but Fangraphs’ newest addition August Fagerstrom took care of that yesterday. I moved onto to Dallas Keuchel, only to remember that Mike Petrellio wrote about him wonderfully. Finally, I said: “I guess I’ll write about Phil Hughes.” Too late, Jeff Sullivan already beat me to it and I can’t compete with him.

I found someone to talk about, though. Jimmy Rollins. Rollins’ obituary was written by most fantasy players late last season. His power had vanished, and his speed was just waning with age. Not so fast. Using wRC+, Jimmy Rollins is having the best offensive season of his career, by a rather large margin. Rollins has only posted a wRC+ better than 105 once, when he posted a 119 mark during his 2007 MVP season. He’s currently (Friday afternoon) sitting at 132. His power has bounced back, and so has his walk rate.

His batted ball profile hasn’t changed much, but his approach at the plate has. Rollins is swinging at fewer pitches than he ever has. His 38.5% swing percentage gives him the 16th lowest swing% in the major leagues. You may be wondering, why does that matter so much? Well Rollins has always had pretty good contact skills, so dropping the percentage of pitches he’s swings matters a ton. His overall swing% has dropped; likewise his o-swing%. He’s chasing less, and even when he’s chasing he’s making less contact, therefore putting fewer bad balls (which usually don’t amount to much) in play. Rollins is swinging less, but it appears when he swings he’s swinging at pitches he knows he can do damage with. It’s an approach that has helped countless people over the years including: Brian Dozier, Adam Lind, Edwin Encarnacion, and Jose Bautista (go Blue Jays, I guess?).

Read the rest of this entry »

Another Friday is upon us. On Wednesday, we talked a little about Sean Doolittle. Today, let’s focus on C.J. Wilson, who happens to be pitching tonight.

Wilson has often been labeled: inconsistent. Maybe he’s been a little inconsistent at times, but that happens to everyone.  Since 2010, though, Wilson has been the 15th best pitcher in the major leagues according to WAR. If you prefer RA9-WAR, he’s been the 13th best pitcher. Granted, WAR isn’t of much use in fantasy leagues, but humor me. Without looking, would you have guessed Wilson was essentially James Shields’ equal during that timeframe? I wouldn’t have. I also wouldn’t have placed him above Gio Gonzalez, Mat Latos, or Matt Cain, but there he is.

The past few years, the only qualm anyone has been able to have with Wilson has been the amount of free passes he’s given out. Well, he’s remedied that somewhat in 2014. His walks are down a little; the lowest they’ve been since 2011. His strikeout rate is also the highest it’s ever been as a starter. And so his his ground-ball percentage. Keep it rolling, sir.

Read the rest of this entry »

Sean Doolittle gets a lot of love. He’s similar to former Athletic Brandon McCarthy in some respects: He’s accessible on Twitter. He has a good sense of humor. And he’s more than okay with advanced statistics. But since he hasn’t been a full time “closer” until this season he’s somewhat overlooked, or at least he feels overlooked. Perhaps I’m just looking in the wrong places for Doolittle praise.

In this space, I had written: Sean Doolittle hasn’t walked a batter yet. Not one in 81 plate appearances. He then went out and walked one last night. So, his total now sits at one, after facing 85 batters. Damn it, Sean.

Thanks, in part, to an increase of his slider usage Doolittle’s strikeout rate has soared to a career high 34% (12 k/9). He’s been a little unlucky, with respect to his career norm, on home runs, but he’s still posting the best FIP of his career. If more context and adjustments are your thing, his xFIP- of 54 ranks him tenth among relievers, ahead of Kohi Uehara and Glen Perkins. (Dellin Betances is first, with a 33(!), but that’s for another day.) In short, Sean Doolittle is really, really good. And best of all, in today’s age of specialists, Doolittle destroys lefties and righties almost equally. You’ll find no discrimination in Doolittle’s game. For his career, right handed batters have a wOBA of .252; lefties, .260. Not too shabby.

Read the rest of this entry »

Josh Beckett has burned me a few times this year. Or better put, Josh Beckett has burned me by pitching well against stacks I have chosen against him. Much of the attention pitchers have received this year have been due to injuries (Jose Fernandez) or breakouts (Masahiro Tanaka). Beckett’s resurgence hasn’t garnered much attention, if any.

Beckett’s besting his career strikeout pace of 22.2%, and walking a few more batters than he has during his career – 7.3% career BB%. His peripherals aren’t far off from his 2011 campaign, in which he was worth roughly four wins. He’s also generating his highest ground ball rate since 2009. Unfortunately, that’s where good news stops. His hr/fb rate is higher than his career average. His babip allowed is .064 below his career average. And finally, his LOB% is a marvelous 84.6%.   From 2011 until 2013 Beckett struggled out of the stretch. He allowed a.340 wOBA with men on base. In 2014, however, he’s allowed a .201 wOBA in such situations; a number undoubtedly aided by a .132 babip –  .292 is league average in those instances, so far.

Beckett might have made legitimate improvements. His velocity is still intact. So are his above league average homer issues, though. Beckett’s pitched pretty well this season, but it probably won’t last, at least in this magnitude. It’d be pretty cool if he kept it going a little while longer, though.

Read the rest of this entry »

Eric Stults‘ wasn’t hit hard after all. In fact, he was barely hit at all. Baseball, man. It’s a weird game. And speaking of weird, despite the fact that Brian Dozier is completely legit, it’s weird to see his name at the top of leaderboards. He went deep again last night – bringing his total to ten. Weird game, indeed.

Read the rest of this entry »

As usual, we have a full slate tonight. Unfortunately, the odds of all of the games being played without a hitch is in question. Yankee Stadium (Pirates @ Yankees) has a an 80% chance of rain at game time, and 90% throughout the day. There’s also a 60% chance of rain in Colorado, but it does appear the weather will begin to taper off at/around game time.

A few more games – Cincinnati at Philadelphia, Detroit at Boston, Milwaukee at Chicago (NL) – could be delayed. So be mindful of those when you’re setting your lineups. The only game I’m strictly staying away from is Pittsburgh at New York (AL). And that’s a shame, because I really liked Neil Walker versus David Phelps.

Read the rest of this entry »