It’s Chris Sale day. Jeff Sullivan had a post about him the other day. Spoiler: he’s fantastic. Here are some of the highlights from said piece:

For Sale, there are a few goals. One, he wants to keep himself healthy and able to pitch. Two, adding a better changeup should allow him to be effective longer within games. And three, Sale indicates that the changeup helps him keep his mechanics consistent. These things always sound good in theory, but Sale’s gone beyond theory, to the point where he’s genuinely executing. He’s dramatically cut down his slider usage. By our data, he’s increased his changeup usage by 12 percentage points, the biggest hike in baseball. According to Brooks, he’s actually second toHenderson Alvarez, but by the same source Alvarez used a changeup often in the past, so at least for Sale this is significant and new.

And Sale owns a career-high strikeout rate. He owns a career-low walk rate. Since he came off the disabled list, he’s posted a league-leading K% – BB% of 33%. Sale’s gotten better against both lefties and righties, and for an idea of the confidence he’s developed in his change.

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For another glimpse at how Sale has kind of phased the slider out, here are his rates of strikeouts for which the slider was responsible:

2012: 58% strikeouts on slider
2013: 52%
2014: 22%

Sale’s slider is still good. It’s still Chris Sale’s slider. This season it’s been knocked for all of three hits. But Sale hasn’t needed to rely on that pitch, as his changeup has been knocked for just 11 hits despite a large gain in frequency. The one Sale changeup hit for extra bases so far wasn’t even a bad changeup; it was a good changeup thrown to an amazing hitter. Otherwise, the changeup has gotten 20 strikeouts and ten singles. Righties have struck out against the changeup 17 times; they’ve struck out against the slider six times. Last season, those numbers were 34 and 79.

Mr. Sale will be going against the NL ERA leader, Tim Hudson, today; should be a dandy.

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After yesterday’s somewhat abbreviated slate of eleven games, we’re back at full strength today. Fifteen games, and outside of the midwest, the weather looks great. The following games might have some weather issues; listed in chance of precipitation from most likely to least likely: San Francisco at Chicago (AL) [40%], Kansas City – Detroit [30%], and Cincinnati – Pittsburgh [30%]. There are a couple more games that have a 20% of precipitation, but those forecasts typically don’t end up ruining much of anything. I’m not purposely avoiding any game today, except for maybe San Francisco at Chicago; that game does have some nice matchups, though, if you’re willing to roster the players involved.

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Andrew McCutchen is really good. Groundbreaking stuff, I know. McCutchen gets a ton of a press; he did win the MVP last year, after all. Despite that, it feels like we don’t talk about the things that make him so, so good enough.

So far this season, among qualified batters, six batters have walked more than they’ve struck out. Those batters are: Victor Martinez, Jose Bautista, Coco Crisp, McCutchen, Kurt Suzuki, and Carlos Ruiz. Martinez has accomplished this feat by only striking out 6.6% of the time; Suzuki has taken that same path, striking out 8.1% of his plate appearances. Bautista has done so by slashing his strikeout rate, while also upping his walk rate a little closer to his unbelievable 2011 campaign. Crisp and Ruiz have been able to keep the scale in their favors by walking at a career high clip. As for McCutchen? He’s maintained his contact rate, while chasing even fewer pitches out of the zone. Only seven qualified batters have chased a fewer percentage of pitches out of the strike zone.

In 2012, McCutchen slashed .327/.400/.553, good for a 158 wRC+; 2013, .317/.404/.508, 155 wRC+. This year, his line is: .321/.435/.550, 177 wRC+. McCutchen’s hitting for the same amount of power he did in 2012 (.229 ISO versus .226), while besting his career high walk rate by more than 3%. Andrew McCutchen is an incredible player, and he’s currently maxing out every portion of his offensive profile. It’s a thing of beauty.

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C.J. Wilson is taking the ball for the Angels today. I’ve written a little about him before, but yesterday I was fooling around with the pitch value leaderboards after reading Dave Cameron’s post on Johnny Cueto, and noticed something that I found pretty neat: Wilson has three pitches that have been top 10 offerings this year. His fastball, slider, and change-up have all graded out phenomenally. He’s facing the Braves tonight, a team that has hit left handed pitching very well, so it’s a very interesting matchup. And speaking of the Braves, Julio Teheran also has three pitches in the top 10 (fastball, curveball, change-up). Adam Wainwright comes close; his curveball currently sits twelfth, but his fastball and cutter are firmly planted near the top. Side bar: Please be ok, Adam.

There are a lot of fun ways to grade out pitches. Whiff rates are my favorite, and we all know they’re Eno’s favorite. The pitch values are also fun though, because it’s always nice to know how these pitchers come to their over numbers. Most of the time, at least to me, the parts that make up the whole are more interesting when they’re viewed as separate entities.

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Jason Hammel is on the mound today, so let’s chat about him! Hammel was signed by the Cubs in the offseason. Undoubtedly, the Cubs’ plan was to have him perform well, and then be flipped for future assets. So far, so good.

Hammel’s having a career year – the first three columns are all career bests; the fourth is second only to his 2012 campaign. His K-BB%, perhaps the best in season predictor of future success, is due to both an increase in strikeouts and a decrease in free passes. We love it when a pitcher improves their strikeout or walk rate, but when they improve both? That’s the dream.

His run prevention, so far, has outperformed peripherals a little bit; undoubtedly because he’s sporting a career low HR/FB rate. Regression is accounted for and baked into his xFIP-, which is still rather good. The worst thing we can say about Hammel’s performance so far is: his ERA could easily be around 3.50.

Jeff Samardzija gets all of the trade headlines in the Windy City. That’s fine. He’s phenomenal in his own right, but perhaps it’s time we pay a little more attention to Hammel. Samardzija will garner a larger prospect package for the Cubs – due to multiple reasons – but the team that acquires Hammel is likely acquiring one hell of an upgrade for their stretch run.

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It’s hard to put into words how excited I am was (note below) for tonight’s Cleveland-Kansas City match-up. In case you didn’t know, Corey Kluber and Yordano Ventura (thank you, Based God, for sparing his elbow for now) are squaring off tonight. Kluber’s 2014 dominance isn’t a secret. Ventura’s prowess and potential is well known thanks to his triple digit heat. But let’s get some numbers involved.

There’s a ton of sexiness in that chart. Obviously, Kluber’s been the better pitcher – only Felix Hernandez has been better in 2014. His peripherals have been impressive for quite some time, but so far, his run prevention stats have caught up as well. Despite the Indians’ terrible defense, he’s still rocking a sub 3.30 ERA. Rather impressive.

Ventura might lack results at this point, but he’s one of the most aesthetically pleasing pitchers in the game. We all know about his fastball, which has averaged a tick over 96 mph to this point. His change-up, however, seems to be overlooked a little. According to pitchf/x, 14.4% of the pitches he’s thrown thus far has been a change-up, and they’ve averaged 86.2 mph – roughly a 10 mph difference. That difference in mph, combined with the pitch’s movement, has lead to a swSTR of 15.3%.

Edit: Thanks to the rain, Jason Vargas was pushed back until tonight. I’m leaving the chart and notes because Ventura is awesome, and Kluber is still pitching. Thanks for nothing, weather. 

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I don’t have much for a cool intro today. I’ve spent most of my time the past day and a half reading scouting reports of draft picks. Put it this way, I’ve spent way too much time on YouTube watching footage of batting practice, especially considering I have no idea what in the hell I’m looking for. Feel free to ask me questions, though. I’ll make up something that’ll make you feel good about someone who has a pretty solid chance of letting you down in the future!

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Let’s talk a little about league settings today. I’m assuming a few of you still play in standard leagues. Different settings have begun to take hold, though. For the first time in my life, I’m not in one league that uses batting average or wins.

I’m in five leagues this year; one keeper and one dynasty. Three of the leagues have the following settings: R, HR, RBI, SB, OBP x QS, ERA, WHIP, K, SV+HLD. One other league has the same settings, except SLG replaces HR and SV replaces SV+HLD. And my final league, here on Fangraphs (shameless company plug), is points based; Fangraphs points, specifically.

I like portions of each league. I love OBP – sure would be nice if ESPN offered wOBA, though – and I like giving credit for saves and holds, because as we all know, sometimes the “closer” isn’t anywhere near the best reliever on the team.

So far, my favorite setup is the Ottoneu league. Admittedly, it took a little while to come around to it. Some plays that have positive value in other leagues (RBI, etc.) don’t do anything for you in Ottoneu. I’ve come around quickly, though. It’s isolation at it’s finest. Player hits a double? Gets credit for it. Teammates don’t drive him in, though? No harm done. The league’s settings don’t punish players for having weaker teammates. Nor do they help out mediocre hitters who happen to be in the right place at the right time – cough, 2013 Brandon Phillips, cough.

So, what are your favorite settings?

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Usually I don’t talk about myself very much. At least I try not to, mostly because I’m a shy person. I’m going to today, just for a second, though. I’m assuming sabermetrics – Fangraphs, specifically – changed the way you played fantasy. The first few years I played fantasy baseball, I knew nothing about sabermetrics. That changed three years ago. I stumbled onto Fangraphs, thanks to Twitter. I was quickly enamored with the numbers and principles behind them; learning about FIP, BABiP, small sample sizes, and their nuances forced me to do a complete 180 degree turn in the way I thought about the game.

For example, Pablo Sandoval was dreadful in April. In earlier years, I might have sold low. I would have essentially thrown out his entire body of work for a minuscule sample. Learning more about the game changed me. FIP is a go-to statistic for me now. Without it, or Carson, I would not have known a thing about Corey Kluber last year. I would have seen his ERA around draft time this year and said: “Oh cool, another mediocre pitcher.” Once again, I would have been pissed for either missing out on him, or worse, dropping him.

You’re on Fangraphs, so I’m preaching to the choir here, but learning something new is awesome. In this case, learning something new made a hobby into something even more fun.

If you’re wondering where this came from, I was in my cube at work yesterday thinking about the first year I played fantasy baseball – a salary cap league on Sporting News. It was 2003, Runelvys Hernandez posted a 1.58 ERA during the first month of the season. He struggled in May, got hurt, and his owner dropped him. I thought: “Man, what an idiot,” – I was 12, so cut me some slack. (sorry if that makes you feel old) – and picked him up in preparation for his return. In his final eight starts, he posted an 8.15 ERA while striking out 10.9% of the batters he faced. That guy knew more than me. He knew he didn’t miss bats, among other things. Damn shame it took me so long to figure out that it wasn’t hard to look for signs of a fluke. And granted, now that I’m older, with a career, fantasy takes up a little more of my time because I can’t sit at home and play Final Fantasy VII all summer or play wiffle ball with friends like I did was I was 12. Fantasy is an escape. And thanks to Fangraphs, I’m a little better at fake life.

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In the comments I’ve had some interesting interactions lately. Because of that I wanted to address a few things here, in case some of you don’t make it down to the comment section.

First off, thanks for reading these. It feels like the pieces are getting bigger responses.

Secondly, when I make picks I’m doing my best to give you value options. For example, the Blue Jays’ offense is ruthless. You know that, and you definitely don’t need me to recommend them four days a week because you’re more than smart enough to do that on your own. I usually pick a stack against one of the pitchers that has a lot of green cells in the chart I embed. I alluded to it last week, but you could probably pretty easily throw together a stack, or play match-ups, against any of the pitchers I mention in the blurbs under the chart.

Lastly, I was asked why I recommend a three man stack instead of a four man option. My response and, later, my further explanation is below:

It’s honestly kind of just personal preference. Most of the time when I enter GPPs I use multiple three man stacks. This is a good read (http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/daily-fantasy-strategy-march-31-for-draftstreet/). I’ve just usually had better a little better luck with a three man stack. Sorry if that seems like a cop-out. I may start including a fourth option for you guys though now that you’ve mentioned it.

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Yeah, I should have worded that a little better. Usually I have two three man stacks against two of the five or so pitchers I highlight in the blurb. I usually then try to find two upside plays on the same team – around $5,000-$6,000 or so a piece. Then I just fill out the last position with a cheaper guy who happens to have a nice matchup. It rarely works out to where I find three stacks I like, but when it does the results have been nice.

I mostly try to save my money on pitching. Usually I can find two to three options for under $15,000 that I’m comfortable with. Sometimes I get burned on that, but at their price I’m not expecting them to carry me anyways.

I hope that helps explain the process/reasoning I undertake before making my picks. And hopefully we have a little better luck this week. Only Thursday was kind to me last week.

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