Daily Fantasy Strategy — May 20 — For Draftstreet

Josh Beckett has burned me a few times this year. Or better put, Josh Beckett has burned me by pitching well against stacks I have chosen against him. Much of the attention pitchers have received this year have been due to injuries (Jose Fernandez) or breakouts (Masahiro Tanaka). Beckett’s resurgence hasn’t garnered much attention, if any.

Year IP K% BB% ERA FIP
2011 193 22.8% 6.8% 2.89 3.57
2012 170.1 18.1% 7.1% 4.65 4.15
2013 43.1 21.0% 7.7% 5.19 4.66
2014 41.2 23.8% 8.9% 2.38 3.94

Beckett’s besting his career strikeout pace of 22.2%, and walking a few more batters than he has during his career – 7.3% career BB%. His peripherals aren’t far off from his 2011 campaign, in which he was worth roughly four wins. He’s also generating his highest ground ball rate since 2009. Unfortunately, that’s where good news stops. His hr/fb rate is higher than his career average. His babip allowed is .064 below his career average. And finally, his LOB% is a marvelous 84.6%.   From 2011 until 2013 Beckett struggled out of the stretch. He allowed a.340 wOBA with men on base. In 2014, however, he’s allowed a .201 wOBA in such situations; a number undoubtedly aided by a .132 babip –  .292 is league average in those instances, so far.

Beckett might have made legitimate improvements. His velocity is still intact. So are his above league average homer issues, though. Beckett’s pitched pretty well this season, but it probably won’t last, at least in this magnitude. It’d be pretty cool if he kept it going a little while longer, though.

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Probables Chart

Weather looks pretty good around the country today, except for in Chicago. The Cubs-Yankees game might have some issues, so keep that in mind when setting your lineups.

Felix Doubront is on the bump today, and he’s facing a very potent, especially from the right side, Blue Jays lineup. Franklin Morales is back home, except for him that isn’t a good thing. Coors Field isn’t friendly, and neither is the Giants offense (kinda still can’t believe I typed that; not used to it). And finally, Colby Lewis is facing a Mariners’ lineup that has struggled, but is predominantly left handed.

The Daily Five

Giants stack

Mike Morse – $7,042
Pablo Sandoval – $5,047
Buster Posey – $7,839

All righties. All facing the aforementioned Morales in the light Colorado air.

Brandon Moss – $8,148

Moss is an animal right now. He’s been the sixth best hitter this season, according to wRC+, with a 170 mark. He’s been even better than that since April 18, posting a 196 wRC+.

Ian Kennedy – $16,898

My love for 2014’s version of Kennedy has been documented. He’s back in the ever spacious Petco Park today against a Twins offense, that while improved still has the seventh highest strikeout rate.

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Landon is a senior writer at The Fantasy Fix. You can follow and interact with him on Twitter (@joneslandon).

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