Daily Fantasy Strategy — May 31 — For Draftstreet

I’ve written about Scott Kazmir a little in my daily columns before. Mike Podhorzer wrote about him – selling him high, specifically – this week. I’m a little bit more of a believer than Mike, I believe, but I can definitely see his side of it. If someone is willing to give you an ace/# 2 like package, I might have a hard time turning it down. I’m less worried about his ability to get whiffs than Mike is, though. Nearly all of my concerns are based on his ability to last 180 or more innings.

Kazmir has currently thrown 68.2 innings – tied for the 29th most among starters (at this moment). He made it through 158 last year. In 2010, his last season in the bigs before his epic comeback, he threw 150 innings. Kazmir’s body hasn’t allowed him to throw more than 160 innings since 2007. In other words, Scott Kazmir hasn’t thrown more than 160 innings since Kanye West released Graduation – which is a great album. There is a song called Barry Bonds on it, after all.

It may seem like I’m being harsh on Kazmir, but I’m not trying to be. It’s just…2007, man! I want and need Kazmir to throw 200 innings this year. It doesn’t feel like his comeback has gotten enough attention despite the fact that it is an absolutely remarkable feat. I understand selling high on him, but as for me – someone who only owns him in one league, at a good price,  with a team with no glaring holes, and receiving light offers – I’m just going to ride him until he throws me off and leaves me in a ditch somewhere.

P.S. on The Show, my created pitcher has Kazmir’s mechanics, so I’m very dedicated in my devotion.

Probables Chart

We had the right idea last night – betting against Vidal Nuno. Josh Willingham came through, if only I’d stuck with Oswaldo Arcia despite not having platoon advantage.

Weather shouldn’t be an issue anywhere today, considering most of the parks that might be affected have roofs. I find myself picking against Andre Rienzo often, but I might leave him be today. The Padres’ offense doesn’t make me feel some type of way. Chris Tillman faces the Astros today. Coming off two rough outings, it won’t be an easy start considering how well Houston is currently swinging the bat. Trevor Bauer’s going to need his command today versus Colorado. The Yankees are at home tonight and facing Kevin Correia, who, like Rienzo, I always find myself betting against. And finally, Chris Young (Eno’s pal!), is on the mound tonight. He’ll be trying to beat his peripherals versus a potent Tigers’ lineup.

You can easily pick a stack against any of the above pitchers, but I ultimately decided to go against Jake Odorizzi.

The Daily Five

Red Sox stack

David Ortiz – $6,651
Dustin Pedroia – $6,397
Xander Bogaerts – $5,077

Jake Odorizzi has had some troubles turning lineups over this year. He’s been better of late, but I’m still a little skeptical. Ortiz is Ortiz. Ditto for Pedroia, even though his power is seemingly gone. As for Bogaerts, he’s slashing .313/.389/.469 in May. He’s rather good.

Late night edit: Pedroia was taken out of last night’s game late, and may miss today’s game with an injury. Obviously, I’m less in love with this stack now. My back-up stack, which costs a little more is: Victor Martinez – $8,119, Ian Kinsler – $7,536, and Torii Hunter – $6,313. I’m leaning towards the Detroit stack at the moment, but I wanted to let my original train of thought be known. 

Dexter Fowler – $5,158

I mentioned Tillman’s struggles above. On top of George Springer, I like Fowler today. He’s been a little better as a righty in his career, but most of his power comes when he’s facing right handed pitching. Hopefully Tillman’s long ball issues don’t get fixed today.

Drew Smyly – $12,265

I’m not sure if Robinson Cano will be back tonight, but either way I like Smyly. The Mariners’ lineup is extremely lefty heavy. As a result, they haven’t been very good versus left handed pitching, posting an 80 wRC+ line as a team.

Lastly, it’s OSCAR TAVERAS DAY!

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