There are two things that jumped out at me looking at 3B. First is that there are 6 really good, exciting bats at the top, and then a big tier drop. Second is that I run out of starters I really trust before I get to 12. I’ll be pretty focused on getting one of those top six via trade or auction this offseason.
After a holiday hiatus, we’re back at it with 2B today and we’ll be powering through other positions quickly. My goal is to finish this series in January and to make updates in February as new information comes out or my thinking changes. Second base has already been delayed because of new information and updated thinking.
With catchers out of the way, we continue to move around the IF, going from the worst offensive position to the best. First base is always both top-heavy and deep, and that is the case again this year. It creates an interesting dynamic where there is big production to be had by adding the top guys, but there is also good value to be had by waiting out the rest of the league and seeing who shows up cheap later in the auction. It creates an interesting strategic choice in which there are a lot of ways to build a team.
As with catchers, before I share the list, I want to share some notes on my process.
Last week, I posted my catcher rankings for Ottoneu FanGraphs points leagues, but those are, of course, not the only rankings out there. There are other formats, there are values created by other analysts and more. Before moving to the next position in my rankings, I wanted to take a moment to look at where other values might differ from mine at catcher, and why.
I didn’t start this series until January last year (which was already this year!) but I wanted to get out a bit earlier in 2023 (which is still 2022) as trade season is well underway. This comes with some risk – a number of players are still unsigned, trades are still to come, not all projections are available, etc. – but I think the risk is worth the reward, don’t you?
As in past years, before I share the list, I want to share some notes on my process.
Yesterday we looked at league and team data, today we turn our attention to player data. This is, arguably, the more interesting data. It has an immediate impact, since it tells us something about player valuations as we get ready for trade season. It also is an interesting signal outside the Ottoneu universe for the same reason – it’s a signal early in the off-season about how players are being valued. Arbitration data has, historically, influenced my rankings, keeper plans, and more. The wisdom of the crowds can be a powerful thing.
Arbitration wrapped up Monday and before we move onto trade season (though some of you already have), it’s worth looking back at what happened in arbitration and what we can learn from it.
Ottoneu arbitration is wrapping up soon (all allocations and votes need to be in by November 14, at 11:59 pm ET), so now is your last chance to make sure you got it right. For some of you, it means being annoyed your league-mates haven’t finished arbitration yet, and posting messages on your league message board begging them to finish up (note: this is me). For some of you, that likely means panicking, realizing you haven’t done it, rushing to your league site, and getting something in. For some it is just one last chance to make some edits and decide if you are happy.
Which group you fall in determines what you should do this weekend or early next week.
“But wait, Chad,” you say. “You have told us so many times that allocation arbitration dollars to prospects doesn’t make sense! Why even write this article?”
“You’re right,” I reply. “I probably shouldn’t. But I am going to do it anyway. Let me tell you why.”