AL SP ADP: Early Results
I aim to please. In trying to come up with a topic for today’s post, I read the applause to Jeff Zimmerman’s 2B ADP article, and in particular the plea to see a similar post for all positions. Well what readers want, readers get. Although I have periodically taken a look at Mock Draft Central’s ADP results in past weeks and covered some early overvalued and undervalued pitchers, here is how the entire set of AL pitchers are being drafted.
| Player | ADP | Round | Earliest | Latest |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Verlander | 9 | 1 | 3 | 25 |
| Felix Hernandez | 27 | 3 | 17 | 43 |
| CC Sabathia | 31 | 3 | 20 | 56 |
| Jered Weaver | 33 | 3 | 21 | 53 |
| David Price | 39 | 4 | 29 | 58 |
| Dan Haren | 43 | 4 | 32 | 64 |
| Jon Lester | 51 | 5 | 35 | 79 |
| James Shields | 67 | 6 | 41 | 92 |
| Ricky Romero | 88 | 8 | 67 | 122 |
| C.J. Wilson | 89 | 8 | 53 | 119 |
| Josh Beckett | 91 | 8 | 62 | 131 |
| Michael Pineda | 95 | 8 | 49 | 126 |
| Matt Moore | 103 | 9 | 64 | 208 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | 127 | 11 | 94 | 157 |
| Yu Darvish | 127 | 11 | 66 | 209 |
| Ervin Santana | 150 | 13 | 121 | 194 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | 154 | 13 | 93 | 196 |
| Max Scherzer | 154 | 13 | 110 | 195 |
| Derek Holland | 164 | 14 | 99 | 204 |
| Hiroki Kuroda | 171 | 15 | 121 | 205 |
| Doug Fister | 177 | 15 | 102 | 215 |
| Brandon Morrow | 185 | 16 | 107 | 227 |
| John Danks | 192 | 16 | 153 | -ND- |
| Justin Masterson | 200 | 17 | 148 | -ND- |
| Colby Lewis | 205 | 18 | 162 | -ND- |
| Brandon McCarthy | 207 | 18 | 156 | -ND- |
| Clay Buchholz | 208 | 18 | 133 | -ND- |
| Alexi Ogando | 208 | 18 | 142 | -ND- |
| Scott Baker | 215 | 18 | 160 | -ND- |
| Jonathan Sanchez | 222 | 18 | 218 | -ND- |
| Matt Harrison | 227 | 19 | 195 | -ND- |
| Brett Anderson | 228 | 19 | 187 | -ND- |
| Gavin Floyd | 229 | 20 | 197 | -ND- |
| Ivan Nova | 230 | 20 | 128 | -ND- |
| Francisco Liriano | 232 | 20 | 195 | -ND- |
| Luke Hochevar | 234 | 20 | 223 | -ND- |
| Alfredo Aceves | 234 | 20 | 197 | -ND- |
| Jake Peavy | 235 | 20 | 227 | -ND- |
| Henderson Alvarez | 240 | 20 | 232 | -ND- |
| Rick Porcello | 242 | 21 | 234 | -ND- |
| Phil Hughes | 257 | 22 | 249 | -ND- |
| A.J. Burnett | 268 | 23 | 259 | -ND- |
| Brian Matusz | 274 | 23 | 265 | -ND- |
| Dallas Braden | 279 | 24 | 270 | -ND- |
| Jeff Niemann | 283 | 24 | 274 | -ND- |
| Wade Davis | 312 | 26 | 302 | -ND- |
| Brad Peacock | 321 | 27 | 310 | -ND- |
| Jarrod Parker | 331 | 28 | 320 | -ND- |
| Philip Humber | 343 | 29 | 332 | -ND- |
| Jacob Turner | 346 | 29 | 335 | -ND- |
| Josh Tomlin | 362 | 31 | 350 | -ND- |
| Jeremy Guthrie | 377 | 32 | 365 | -ND- |
| John Lackey | 389 | 32 | 376 | -ND- |
| Derek Lowe | 405 | 34 | 392 | -ND- |
| Brian Duensing | 455 | 38 | 440 | -ND- |
| Carl Pavano | 457 | 39 | 442 | -ND- |
Thoughts:
–Justin Verlander with an ADP of 9?! Umm pass.
–Matt Moore at 103 and in the 9th round I am actually okay with. Of course, he’ll have an innings limit, but even in 170 innings, I think he is reasonably valued here.
–Jeremy Hellickson isn’t as overvalued as I thought he may be. I think he is being drafted a touch too early still, but there is really no one being drafted after him that I am real confident will outperform him, except for…
-Yu Darvish. At 127. I don’t know how many league drafts this includes after his signing, and if he is going earlier now that he officially has a team. But I think he is an absolute bargain this late. I would probably rank him right behind Shields and think a pick in the 8th round or so is your break even point.
–Ervin Santana went from boring late round mixed league pick to round out a staff to a 13th rounder on the heels of great fortune. Don’t bother.
-One of the things to look for during spring training is where Ubaldo Jimenez‘ velocity sits. If reports tell us it has rebounded and he is back throwing consistently in the mid-to-high 90’s, it is time to get back on board. Since his draft cost will almost certainly not jump that much after such news, he should still have the potential to yield a nice profit.
–Brandon Morrow is the perennial stat-head sleeper and all the speculation about what issues are causing him to continually underperform his peripherals should be easily correctable. In other words, his ERA can catch up to his SIERA any year without warning. In the 16th round, it’s worth it to take the chance in the hopes that the year is this one.
-I am surprised how late Justin Masterson is going. People really prefer Doug Fister to him?
–Francisco Liriano certainly dropped off the face of the earth, huh? Obviously, his health is the biggest question mark and can make him one of the best picks of the draft or lead to another lost season. In the 20th round, may as well take the gamble.
-Poor Rick Porcello. He is having nightmares now of Miguel Cabrera at the hot corner fielding all his ground balls.
Mike Podhorzer is the founder of ProjectingX IQ, an advanced fantasy baseball analytics platform that transforms projection data and in-season performance signals into actionable intelligence. He is the 2015 Fantasy Sports Writers Association Baseball Writer of the Year and three-time Tout Wars champion. He is the author of the eBook Projecting X 2.0: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance, which teaches you how to project players yourself. Follow Mike on X@MikePodhorzer and contact him via email.
Phil Humber 60-70 picks behind Brian Matusz looks like a real value.
Besides Yu Darvish being too low, other Texas starters are too high because someone (Ogando? Harrison?) will be stuck in middle relief unless there is a trade.
It looks like taking pitchers in rounds 16 and 17 might yield a much greater selection than waiting a couple of rounds.
Drafting pitchers in round one is always very strange to me. JV and Felix are probably the two best AL SP’s going forward but they are still way to close to CC, to Weaver, to Price, to Haren ect. to justify taking them well before the others.
Jonathan Sanchez in round `18 looks like a steal to me. 2011 was by far his worst year, but what are you really hoping for at that point? an ace of the staff or someone that will hurt your ERA and Whip but can put up more than a K per inning. I’ll take the gamble for good strikeouts late while hoping for a rebound to his ERA. Of course i am offsetting this with a good Whip stud early.
dan hudson? ian kennedy? beachy?
AL-only…
Wouldn’t you ask about Halladay, Lincecum, Kershaw and Lee before those guys?
I’ve done a few mock drafts there. In my experience the vast majority of drafts are empty. Presumably those don’t get counted toward ADP. But many of the drafts are half-filled.
And often managers leave around the half way point in a draft, and give way to auto-picks. Besides that, I’ve noticed myself being heavily influenced by the default suggested rankings- so I would let Justin Masterson go simply because you get a strong sense that he will be around later.
So I wonder if the default rankings provided by MDC cause people to get caught in a feedback loop that reinforces itself.
I have to agree with the above view of mock-drafting. They are usually only half full, and even then, the drafters leave way before the draft is over. I think what we’re seeing here is a product of the rankings.
Here’s a question: Why not have Fangraph readership participate in a mock draft, then analyse that?
Also, Mock-auctions would be handy.
Yup, absolutely agree. These ADPs are heavily influenced by the default rankings and the site providing their ADP data. Of course, missing drafters and the fact it’s a mock to begin with also screws with the results. BUT, it’s all we have, and this data, as flawed as it may be, is better than nothing. And what else do we have to debate about in fantasy baseball before February hits?!
Yeah, mock auctions would be interesting, but it would take way too long, so would be hard to generate interest in participating.
@Mike: It would be difficult. BUT! You allow for fan stat projections. What if you let fans specify fantasy info for players in the same way? They could specify dollar values and suggested draft slots.
Lots of people have some sort of private lists they work from to rank players anyway. Fangraphs could be the receptacle for that and do interesting stuff with the information.
@glenstein Fantastic idea. Stay tuned…
Good point on MDC, and my advice is this: Use the ADP’s as a tool, not a law governing how you draft your team. Take how your league has historically drafted into consideration along with the ADP reports. It’s good information to have, just be careful how you use it.
MD info is most valuable in less competitive leagues, I find. Casual managers draft almost exclusively by the pre-draft rankings, so it’s way more predictable. Like fish in a barrel…
Competitive league drafts, on the other hand, almost never unfold the same way.
I use adp more for seeing the order players are going at a position…not necessarily which round.
If I have a sleeper in mind (say, Dee Gordon) then I’ll use ADP results to help “time” my pick. He’s going right after Rollins/Jeter/Hardy/Aybar…so as soon as guys from that group start going I’ll pull the trigger, regardless of which round we’re in.
Not always ideal, but in the middle rounds it can create anxiety to have 3 targets at 3 positions and be stressed about which is likely to last longest. I find adp most helpful in educating those guesses.
chris sale?
I filtered based on MDC’s position classification. So he and the rest of the guys expected to transition into the rotation will still be listed as an RP. This includes guys like Bard, Neftali Feliz and Aaron Crow. If I were to rank them, it would be Sale, Bard, Feliz and Crow.
Much more bullish on Dravish than I am. 8th rd pick would make him a Top 20-25 pitcher in MLB (Not just AL). He may turn out to be that good, but I do not think anything knows. It seems he would have to end up as Top 10 to justify the risk of drafting him as high as the 8th rd.
His spring may dictate his actual draft position. My guess is that most leagues will have an owner who wants to prove how wise they are with a bit of a reach.
Just don’t see guys get a lot of press and then fall in drafts. Only takes one owner to believe the hype.
For a second, I was worried I set the earliest line on Moore. I went back and see that I took him 84 overall, but I’d be willing to draft him pre-60 in certain circumstances.
And please, keep up the good work. These lists make it very easy to tweak my personal boards.