ADP Battle Royale: Third Base
Over the last few years the industry has begun to focus on NFBC leagues more and more. It is not because it is the most popular format in spite of its growth. It is because, on average, it has more competitive leagues due to the cost involved. This allows for a better average draft position. While ADP is not the end all be all, it can give us some insight into the market and if you have competing markets, it is good to compare them and see what information can be exploited. In this series of articles, I will look at the places where NFBC ADP is higher than the four other major platforms in an attempt to point out potential deals for those of you not playing on NFBC.
NFBC Versus ESPN
Adalberto Mondesi (NFBC ADP: 54.06, ESPN ADP: 223.2)- This is clearly influenced by the fact that so many of ESPN’s leagues are points leagues, but it is still a crazy low ADP for a guy that has power and speed like Mondesi. The NFBC ADP is a bit high considering his risk, but in ESPN it is a great gamble.
Ke’Bryan Hayes (133.88, 191.4)- Hayes is likely going a bit too high on NFBC for a guy who is yet to prove much at the Major League level in spite of tantalizing upside, but on ESPN he is a decent value. If he is healthy, he could end up being a 15/15 guy or possibly more.
Yoán Moncada (153.82, 203.5)- Moncada has always had natural talent, but has yet to really tap into it consistently. Injuries and COVID have played a big role in that, but the discount on NFBC is miniscule while the discount on ESPN is much more enticing.
Luis Urias (153.54, 206.8)- See the piece in this series on second basemen.
Ryan McMahon (166.49, 238)- See the piece in this series on second basemen.
NFBC Versus Yahoo
Adalberto Mondesi (NFBC ADP: 54.06, ESPN ADP: 223.2)- See above.
Ke’Bryan Hayes (133.88, 191.4)- See above.
Luis Urias (153.54, 249.8)- See the piece in this series on second basemen.
Jeimer Candelario (212.29, 261.1)- I actually think Candelario is pretty nicely priced on NFBC, which makes his Yahoo price that much more enticing. He has shown growth contact and his barrel percentage and it feels like a potential breakout could come, but at worst, he has a pretty safe floor at a nice price.
NFBC Versus CBS
Ryan McMahon (NFBC ADP: 166.49, CBS ADP: 238)- See the piece in this series on second basemen.
Eduardo Escobar (199.11, 238)- I am not a big Escobar fan at either price here. I don’t like the park change or where he likely will be hitting in New York as a Met. He is definitely cheaper on Yahoo, but that doesn’t matter much to me.
Jonathan Villar (266.71, 312.5)- See the piece in this series on shortstops.
NFBC Versus Fantrax
Adalberto Mondesi (NFBC ADP: 54.06, ESPN ADP: 223.2)- See above.
Jonathan Villar- (266.71, 326.31)- See the piece in this series on shortstops.
Gio Urshela (278.93, 319.09)- See the piece in this series on shortstops.
| NFBC ADP | Player | Team | Position(s) | ESPN ADP | Yahoo ADP | CBS ADP | Fantrax ADP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.6 | Jose Ramirez | CLE | 3B | 6.6 | 6.2 | 7.5 | 5 |
| 18.36 | Rafael Devers | BOS | 3B | 22.1 | 16.7 | 21 | 18.23 |
| 23.25 | Manny Machado | SD | 3B | 19.1 | 28.6 | 23.5 | 27.23 |
| 54.06 | Adalberto Mondesi | KC | 3B | 223.2 | 74.7 | 69.33 | 81.16 |
| 63.76 | Austin Riley | ATL | 3B | 72.6 | 44.5 | 55.33 | 48.57 |
| 82.38 | Nolan Arenado | STL | 3B | 28.4 | 51.3 | 60.5 | 66.4 |
| 100 | Alex Bregman | HOU | 3B | 32.5 | 54.1 | 56 | 67.13 |
| 101.49 | Kris Bryant | SF | 3B, OF | 109.2 | 85.3 | 92 | 96.73 |
| 116.39 | Anthony Rendon | LAA | 3B | 71.6 | 78.8 | 102.67 | 107.56 |
| 117.7 | DJ LeMahieu | NYY | 1B, 2B, 3B | 76.8 | 93.2 | 137.5 | 125.72 |
| 133.88 | Ke’Bryan Hayes | PIT | 3B | 191.4 | 180.7 | 151.5 | 160.44 |
| 153.54 | Luis Urias | MLW | 2B, 3B, SS | 206 | 249.3 | 197.17 | 182.86 |
| 153.82 | Yoan Moncada | CWS | 3B | 203.5 | 122.9 | 148.33 | 138.85 |
| 166.49 | Ryan McMahon | COL | 2B, 3B | 238 | 163.5 | 223.25 | 183.73 |
| 173.52 | Justin Turner | LAD | 3B | 109 | 144.8 | 187.67 | 180.03 |
| 194.98 | Matt Chapman | OAK | 3B | 176.8 | 133.4 | 177 | 153.88 |
| 199.11 | Eduardo Escobar | NYM | 2B, 3B | 230.5 | 208.3 | 238 | 226.77 |
| 210.35 | Josh Donaldson | MIN | 3B | 154.4 | 210.7 | 166.5 | 218.83 |
| 211.69 | Eugenio Suarez | CIN | 3B, SS | 244.4 | 164.1 | 197.83 | 192.53 |
| 212.29 | Jeimer Candelario | DET | 3B | 212.9 | 261.1 | 256.5 | 259.66 |
| 251.05 | Abraham Toro | SEA | 2B, 3B | 259.1 | 243.7 | 390 | 262.85 |
| 266.71 | Jonathan Villar | NYM | 3B, SS | — | 246.1 | 312.5 | 325.21 |
| 278.93 | Gio Urshela | NYY | 3B, SS | 249.7 | 245.9 | 223.67 | 318.23 |
| 286.4 | Josh Jung | TEX | 3B | 258.5 | 250.9 | 179 | 278.38 |
| 286.89 | Cavan Biggio | TOR | 3B | 256.8 | 245.4 | 225.6 | 276.1 |
| 291.54 | Alec Bohm | PHI | 3B | 259.4 | 245.5 | 219.8 | 275.24 |
| 297.8 | Luis Arraez | MIN | 2B, 3B, OF | 177.1 | 236 | 363.33 | 332.38 |
| 330.19 | Patrick Wisdom | CHC | 3B | 259.1 | 233.9 | 247.8 | 301.69 |
| 342.54 | Hunter Dozier | KC | 3B, OF | 259.5 | 247.9 | 331.33 | 351.6 |
| 348.29 | Yandy Diaz | TB | 1B, 3B | 244.6 | — | 376 | 375.5 |
| 349.35 | Joey Wendle | MIA | 3B, SS | 259.6 | 243.5 | — | 353.06 |
| 352.48 | Ha-Seong Kim 김하성 | SD | 2B, 3B, SS | 259.8 | — | 378.33 | 378.48 |
| 353.06 | Mike Moustakas | CIN | 3B | 259.2 | 247.7 | 282.67 | 352.45 |
| 358.07 | Evan Longoria | SF | 3B | 258.8 | 241.4 | 266.2 | 391.73 |
| 366.54 | Brian Anderson | MIA | 3B | — | — | 316.33 | 365.73 |
| 373.3 | Wilmer Flores | SF | 1B, 2B, 3B | 258.3 | 249.1 | 384.5 | 385.54 |
| 375.87 | Josh Harrison | OAK | 2B, 3B, OF | — | 238.2 | — | 434.74 |
| 393.88 | Jose Miranda | MIN | 3B | — | — | 252.67 | 366.49 |
| 425.01 | Tyler Wade | LAA | 3B, SS, OF | 259.6 | — | — | 516.03 |
| 430.04 | Rougned Odor | BAL | 2B, 3B | 259.9 | — | — | 439.52 |
| 432.13 | J.D. Davis | NYM | 3B | 259.8 | — | 421.5 | 397.8 |
| 451.89 | Carter Kieboom | WAS | 3B | — | — | — | 429.92 |
| 468.98 | Santiago Espinal | TOR | 3B | — | — | 387 | 518.64 |
| 517.88 | Aledmys Diaz | HOU | 3B | — | 243.4 | — | 561.35 |
| 576.43 | Matt Duffy | CHC | 2B, 3B | — | — | — | 623.76 |
| 576.62 | Jon Berti | MIA | 2B, 3B | — | — | — | 565.59 |
| 620.89 | Mike Brosseau | MLW | 2B, 3B | — | — | — | 634.53 |
| 626.56 | Yu Chang | CLE | 1B, 3B | 259.9 | — | — | 616.27 |
| 627.21 | Jake Burger | CWS | 3B | 259.9 | — | 527.5 | 642.78 |
| 634.21 | Nolan Jones | CLE | 3B | — | — | — | 570.02 |
| 648.71 | Josh VanMeter | ARZ | 2B, 3B | — | — | 482 | 724.43 |
| 649.18 | Colton Welker | COL | 3B | 259.9 | — | — | 624.46 |
| 669.1 | Phil Gosselin | LAA | 1B, 3B, OF | — | — | — | 721.34 |
| 674.15 | Maikel Franco | BAL | 3B | 259.9 | — | — | 809.87 |
| 681.87 | Yonny Hernandez | TEX | 3B | 259.9 | — | — | 649.08 |
| 692.18 | David Bote | CHC | 2B, 3B | — | — | — | 590.46 |
| 707.88 | Kelvin Gutierrez | BAL | 3B | — | — | — | 738.67 |
| 709.48 | Elehuris Montero | COL | 3B | — | — | — | 761.13 |
| 710.74 | Kevin Smith | TOR | 3B | 259.9 | — | — | 753.73 |
| 731.3 | Joshua Fuentes | COL | 1B, 3B | — | — | — | — |
| 732.29 | Hanser Alberto | KC | 2B, 3B | — | — | — | 957.37 |
| 735.38 | Asdrubal Cabrera | CIN | 3B | — | — | — | 858.16 |
| 736.65 | Starlin Castro | WAS | 3B | — | — | — | 856.01 |
| 737.4 | Miguel Vargas | LAD | 3B | — | — | — | 691.5 |
| 738.92 | Romy Gonzalez | CWS | 3B | — | — | — | 871.6 |
| 741.11 | Travis Shaw | BOS | 1B, 3B | — | — | — | 779 |
| 743.42 | Brett Baty | NYM | 3B | 259.9 | — | 334 | 724.15 |
| 744.88 | Jack Mayfield | LAA | 3B | 259.9 | — | — | 899.17 |
| 745.5 | Brendan Donovan | STL | 3B | — | — | — | 955.3 |
| 746.64 | Willians Astudillo | MIN | 1B, 3B | 259.9 | — | — | 903.87 |
| 748.06 | Isan Diaz | MIA | 2B, 3B | 259.9 | — | — | 806.86 |
| 748.42 | Brendon Davis | LAA | 3B | — | — | — | 655.1 |
| 748.61 | Emmanuel Rivera | KC | 3B | — | — | — | 1078.23 |
| 748.82 | Charlie Culberson | TEX | 3B | — | — | — | 1184.4 |
| 748.89 | Ronald Torreyes | PHI | 3B, SS | 259.9 | — | — | 964.94 |
| 750.38 | Ryan Dorow | TEX | 3B | 259.9 | — | — | — |
| 750.74 | Jason Vosler | SF | 3B | 259.9 | — | — | 963.9 |
| 750.88 | Kevin Padlo | SEA | 3B | — | — | — | 1193 |
Justin is the co-host on The Sleeper and The Bust Podcast and writes for Rotographs covering the Roto Riteup as well as other periodic articles. In addition to his work at Rotographs, Justin is the lead fantasy writer/analyst and co-owner for FriendswithFantasyBenefits.com, and the owner of The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational. He is also a certified addiction treatment counselor. Follow Justin on Twitter @JustinMasonFWFB.
Thanks for all your work. But one note of caution with Yahoo: the ADP is based on any draft in which the player was drafted. It doesn’t average out drafts where the player was not taken. For instance, Dylan Moore has an ADP of 229.6, but he was only drafted in 5% of drafts. Josh Harrison has an ADP of 238.2, but he was only drafted in 3% of drafts. This Yahoo quirk explains why guys like Harrison and Moore have a higher Yahoo “ADP” than clearly better players like Urias (who has been drafted in 88% of drafts).