5 Spring Training Hitter Performances I Care About
It’s easy to dismiss Spring Training stats. Heck, I used to vehemently deny they had ANY value. They are small samples against a wide variety of competition so how valuable can they truly be to what’s about to take place in the upcoming season? Pretty valuable it seems, if you’re looking at the right ones. Many studies have been conducted on spring stats and they have found that certain stats are indeed useful. The consensus is that strikeouts, walks, power, and stolen bases can be meaningful. With that in mind, here are five stats that stood out to me from the Cactus and Grapefruit Leagues.
Jung Ho Kang: .548 ISO in 45 PA
Kang is back in the States and grabbed hold of the 3B job with a massive spring. His .548 ISO was an MLB-best among the 250 players with at least 41 PA. Of his 10 hits, seven left the yard and two others were doubles. He did fan 18 times (40%) so he seemed to sell out for the power and maybe he ups his 21% K rate, but I’d gladly take a 25-27% K rate if he’s going to chase down 30+ HRs.
Ian Desmond: 6 K, 9 BB (nice) in 50 PA
The two worst wRC+ totals of Desmond’s last seven seasons have come with the Rockies and in case you’re worried that the Coors adjustment to wRC+ is dragging that down unnecessarily, it’s also his two worst OPS totals. He needs to change something if he’s going to hang onto his job because there are just too many good players in Colorado. Walking more than he struck out is an encouraging sign, especially as this has been paired with a .366/.490/.659 line. Getting back to 2017’s average of .274 with last year’s power (.186 ISO) would pay some handsome dividends.
Franchy Cordero: 8 SB attempts (75% success)
Cordero is an absolute toolbox with 70 raw power, 70 speed, and 60 arm. We’ve seen the pop with a .199 ISO in his 253 MLB plate appearances, but he has just six stolen bases in that same span. Equaling that total in 50 PA is encouraging for those hoping to get the power-speed performance from him this year. The referenced studies above pointed out that team SBs can be indicative, too, so the fact that the Padres led baseball in steals (39) and attempts (54) is encouraging.
I’ll use this space to point out that Hunter Pence went 6-for-6 on bases, too. I didn’t give it a separate entry because I’m not sure that it portends a stolen base rebirth for the 36-year old who has just 12 steals in his last 1452 PA. It did get my attention, though.
Jeimer Candelario: .347 ISO, 0.9 K/BB in 53 PA
A two-fer here as the Candyman showed big pop while also maintaining a fantastic plate approach in the limited sample. One of the reasons I like Candelario coming into this year is that I think he’s better than his 26% K rate from a year ago. He struck out just 17% of the time in the minors so if posts something in the low-20%s, he has a better chance to hit something in the .265-.275 range. Meanwhile, the power was there early on last year before a wrist injury lingered over his summer. Seeing it on display here in spring aids my belief that he could pop 25 this year.
Cedric Mullins II: 4-for-4 in SBs
Mullins might’ve had more, too, had his OBP been better than just .261. Baltimore is under new management top-to-bottom so their aversion to stolen bases could be a thing of the past. They were 7th in attempts with 36 this spring compared to just 22 last year which had them tied for 29th. This could be great news for fantasy players as they several potential speedsters in Mullins, Jonathan Villar, Richie Martin, and Dwight Smith Jr.
The thing to watch with Desmond is the ground ball rate. So far he has 17 ground outs and 4 fly outs. Not saying it is the stickiest of stats, but not what you want to see either way.
Ya his GB issues have been wild in Coors
Well basically any part of his profile could stand to improve. Ground balls def still an issue but plate discipline def was too, maybe he works on angle next?
6. Ian Happ…..
In the other end, Muncy seems worrying: 57 PA, 4 walks, 19K, 1.44 GB/FB rate, 0 Homers, 10 hits for a .196/.281/.294 slashline.
The one that’s bothering me most is Aaron Judge. In 47 plate appearances, he only has one single. You’re not going to do very well in the game if you can’t ever hit singles. Of course, the 6 homers, 4 doubles, and 1 triple combine to give him respectable BA / SLG lines, but that sole, solitary single is concerning. He only has a .240 BABIP this spring. Something to keep an eye on.
Spring babip? Really? I can’t imagine a number I would care less about. Maybe a pitcher’s spring won-loss record
Are you really worried because the man has too many XBH?
A couple Aaron Judge streaks:
4/22-4/29/17: 26 PA, only 2 singles, 1143 OPS
9/7 – 9/18/17: 48 PA, only 1 single, 1222 OPS
9/20-9/30/17: 45 PA, only 1 single, 1837 OPS (I initially put 1281 OPS but realized that was his SLG)
Those last 2 are wrapped around a 2 single game so putting those all together:
9/7-9/30/17: 98 PA, only 4 singles, 1480 OPS
I think he’ll be just fine. My only concern is that I didn’t draft him even though I had a shot at him and he might come back to beat me. . . .
I imagine this is satire but it is just too hard to tell these days.
Shame on everyone who can’t recognize this beautiful sarcasm
Yoan Moncada’s had a nice spring hitting .358/.469/.642 (1.110 OPS). Of course, spring training triple-slashes don’t matter, but what’s encouraging is his 16 K & 11 BB in 64 PA, good for 25% K & 17.2% BB, which are pretty significant upgrades on his 2018 season’s 33.4% K and 10.3% BB.
It certainly can’t hurt that he has hit really well this spring. I really hope he keeps it up.
I can’t stop calling him Yo-if Moncad-if. Thanks Paul…
I always wonder about the raw power and speed things. For example. Frenchy hits the ball harder than guys who are 80 raw power, and farther as well. You would think his raw power would be 80. But, I guess scouting is sort of a joke , plenty of the fastest guys by statcast have 60 speeds, and plenty of slow guys like jram have a 70.
Not sure why you’re being down voted here. I think people are butt hurt by the “I guess scouting is sort of a joke” line.
However, you are correct. If a guy who had a 489 foot home run and an average exit velocity that was 7th highest in MLB isn’t an 80 grade power. Then who is? It makes your grading look like a joke if a guy with that power isn’t an 80.
Correct me if I’m wrong, but I’m pretty certain scouting speed factors not just sprint speed, but also ability on the basepaths and stealing bases. For example, a Billy Hamilton with terrible jumps and instincts would not receive 80 speed.
Maybe they should call it “Run” or something instead of “Speed” then.
We should just change everything, because the names are all just wrong. “Runs”? How about They all run, derr. “Home Plate”? Not if you are the visiitng team, “Dugout”? A lot of them are field level. “Fans”? They are all too often just hot air.
Faster acceleration is also desirable, even if it comes with a slightly lower top speed.
I would say that BB/K rates mean very little in spring training. I don’t have any stats to back it up, but pitchers that are established are just trying to get their work in and work on command. If they think the fastball needs work, they might throw it 80% of the time in a spring start. Only guys that are not established and are trying to make the team team pitch real, and then you get all the minor league scrubs pitching to established major league players. Case in point – March 20th Desmond goes 3 for 4 against KC and the immortal Jorge Lopez. The next day he went 2 for 3 against Lauer and then hit Lester next day. Plus it’s Arizona, everyone hits in Arizona during the spring. No humidor. All that matters in the spring is health (and velocity) and opportunity.
Except I included links that pointed out that K and BB numbers have a useful correlation
While I’m not jumping on the wagon yet…
▪Braves SS Dansby Swanson
He hit another opposite-field HR yesterday, giving him back-to-back games with oppo homers. Before those 2 homers, he had never hit an oppo HR in the majors in his career.
He posted a .421 OBP (.980 OPS) this Spring and just looks like a different player now that he’s fully healed from his wrist injury of 2018. I’m not saying he’s going to reach the potential that we all had initially predicted, but a .260 BA with 15 HR / 20 SB isn’t out of the question. And that’s a drastic improvement from previous seasons, especially if he can hit breaking balls now.
I’m pretty excited to see Byron Buxton with only 5 Ks in 39 ABs. If he can keep his K rate even close to that, I’m confident he’ll have a 5+ WAR season. Fingers crossed.
I don’t check the Twins daily but two things strike me as unusual. Why would a player with his history not be given many more AB’s, nobody needs them more, and, on a positive note, if he can cut his K’s to 13% he is the MVP.
Kang hitting 30+ homers would be a gift. The Pirates need power something fierce. They have the pitching staff of a 90+win team and the offense of a 75 win team. No one knows what to expect out of them. Even if Kang hits 30+ homers, I still can’t wait to see Hayes manning 3rd base. He’s gonna be a star.
I wonder if the Pirates would try to shoehorn Kang back into SS if Hayes forces the issue. You figure they would do plenty of shifting to hide Kang’s range plus Hayes has a great glove to help cover him in the hole.
I would like to see spring training stats, split by a date when most team go through major cuts. Over the years, I have realized that lot of AAA+ players tend to have very good spring training numbers, mostly boasted by early spring games where they may not face major league talent as often as in later spring games.
B-ref’s spring stats have exactly that – they have a column for opponent quality so you can see whether someone is facing major or minor leaguers. What you find is that most of the guys who are locks to make the roster are facing major leaguers and vice versa.
How about Adalberto Mondesi, 9 Ks (and 5 BBs) in 53 PA?
Two of Kang’s 7 ST homers were walk-off grand slams. If he can limit K’s to the mid 20% range and if the Pirates can get runners on base for him, he is going to have a monster season. He’s a FA at the end of the year and may be trade bait in July depending on how the Pirates are doing and given that an even better guy (Hayes) is waiting in the wings. Contending teams (assuming the Pirates are not) that need an upgrade at 3B, let the salivating begin….
Do you care about Dansby Swanson’s spring (.353/.421/.559)?
Paul I know you have shares of Matt Olson. 5×5 10 team AL only -I have him at $13 with opportunity to grow hi, back before the draft (and lose ability to buy him in auction)….. would you still keep him at $13 or dump him and move on in the muck of AL 1B market?