Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 3/26/2019

We had a chat. It is now complete. The transcript is yours for perusal.

UPDATE: This chat did not age well. Tatis and Alonso reportedly on their OD rosters.

3:56
Brad Johnson: We’ll get started in a few minutes.

3:56
Brad Johnson: I expect this to be a busy chat so try not to flood questions at me.

3:56
Brad Johnson: Some of you are sneaky

3:56
Brad Johnson: I like to spread my answers around

3:59
Jason: Merrill Kelly or Anthony DeSclafani ?

3:59
Brad Johnson: I’ll take the devil I don’t know for now

3:59
Brad Johnson: i.e. Kelly

4:00
Brad Johnson: We can never rule out breakouts in this age of improved data usage, but DeSclafani seems pretty capped out as a fringe streamer

4:00
Jason: 16 team OBP league, 1 catcher: Barnhardt or Astudillo?

4:00
Brad Johnson: Barnhart is a safer play. Higher floor due to playing time. Willians could still come out ahead though

4:00
Anonymous: The Marlins pitchers still play for the Marlins right?

4:01
Brad Johnson: Somebody has been reading my twitter

4:01
Brad Johnson:

As an industry, we seem to be trying very hard to like #Marlins starting pitchers. Let’s remember:

1. The division… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…

26 Mar 2019
4:01
Mr. Blumenthal the Coffee Mug: In a SVHD league, should I drop Jeffress for Archie Bradley?

4:01
Brad Johnson: Yes

4:01
Closers are Fun: Who gets more saves, Archie Bradley or Strop?

4:02
Brad Johnson: Strop is probably the percentage play, but my heart says Bradley’s going to find 25 somehow.

4:02
Alex: Who provides more value, Luke Weaver or Collin McHugh?

4:02
Brad Johnson: McHugh has such a strong supporting cast

4:02
Brad Johnson: And he’s probably the better pitcher.

4:02
Closers are Fun: How much action will Jose Martinez get this year?

4:04
Brad Johnson: I’d like to know this answer. I don’t really understand where he’ll play. He’s the third 1B and fifth outfielder (Bader, Ozuna, Fowler, O’Neill)?

4:04
Brad Johnson: Clearly they see some use for him, hence the extension.

4:04
Win later?: Would you trade any of Royce Lewis, Trammell, Kirilloff or Hiura for Ohtani (Sp only)….I’m rebuilding and need pitching

4:04
Brad Johnson: Option is any straight up? I think Trammell for Ohtani is a worthy gamble

4:05
Brad Johnson: He’s a physical beast, but there’s an awful lot of swing and miss in his approach

4:05
MetsChief: Odds on Pete Alonso for NL ROY?

4:05
Brad Johnson: Gonna say pretty low on account of the Mets jerking him around

4:05
Bring back DeSpaniel Hair: Brad! What’s up? Do I need to run and stash Senzel in a points league ten teamer? Are we talking top 50 bat?

4:06
Brad Johnson: Nah, Senzel’s probably pretty ordinary for that format, and we still don’t know if/when he’ll play.

4:06
Brad Johnson: If you have a ton of bench space just aching for a stash, I suppose you can go ahead and do it.

4:07
Brad Johnson: If you’re cutting Domingo Santana or better (just as an example), then I’d stick with the known quantity

4:07
Chuckles: What value do you see Jake Lamb having this year as a bounce back candidate?  Would you prefer Jeff McNeil even with the PT concerns?

4:07
Brad Johnson: They’re really not good comps. From a category perspective, they’re polar opposites

4:08
Brad Johnson: So let your needs answer that question. I have… trepidation about Lamb though I do own a couple shares.

4:08
OF Help: Buxton or Laureono as a HR/SB upside stash?  One bench spot open.

4:08
Brad Johnson: I prefer Laureano

4:08
Brad Johnson: I’m sure we could cripple baseball Twitter with that debate

4:08
Stage 5: What kind of “jerking around” do you predict, re: Alonso?

4:09
Brad Johnson: Well… it’s the Mets so it could take any form

4:09
Brad Johnson: timeshare with Dom

4:09
Brad Johnson: When Cespedes returns, an OFer could be pushed into a weird 1B platoon

4:09
Brad Johnson: Adrian Gonzalez could appear

4:09
Brad Johnson: Jose Reyes

4:09
Don Von Handburger: Is Elvis Andrus a good bet to reach his normal 20+ SB level?

4:10
Brad Johnson: Pretty decent bet. Not guaranteed

4:10
Grant: Thoughts on Pineda and Harvey as a lotto ticket?

4:10
Brad Johnson: They’re fine as far as lotto tickets go

4:10
LFC Mike: Senzel out several weeks with ankle sprain

4:10
Brad Johnson: I did not hear this.

4:11
Brad Johnson: And yes, late breaking news of today: Senzel is out

4:11
Brad Johnson: wither 2019 Reds

4:11
Rick C: How far would Keuchel and Kimbrel need to fall for you to draft them?  I avoided both in all my drafts, but someone already dropped Keuchel so I figured I might as well drop my last guy to pick him up.

4:11
Brad Johnson: Like 50-75 spots from their ADP

4:12
Brad Johnson: Which is highly buffed by early drafters assuming they’d eventually sign.

4:12
Austin: Which Padre pitcher you like more, Paddock or Strahm?

4:12
Brad Johnson: Paddack. Like ’em both though.

4:12
Anonymous: Ketel Marte droppable in 15-team if he’s not leading off, or still some skills there? (Stupid loveable Adam Jones…)

4:12
Brad Johnson: Can’t cut Marte in 15-team

4:12
Brad Johnson: He’s a good player

4:13
MookieBestt: Cervelli or Jansen at Catcher? Cervelli hitting 5th and having the longer track record is making me think about it anyway.

4:13
Brad Johnson: They’re both around the 5th best catcher

4:13
Seth: Do you like Chirinos or Barnhart more in an OBP league? Also, are you buying a Shark rebound this year? Thanks, Brad!

4:13
Brad Johnson: Small preference for Barnhart. Not buying Shark shares. No supporting cast.

4:14
Brad Johnson: Similar to my complaint about Marlins SP except the Giants bullpen won’t fumble as many wins.

4:14
Brad Johnson: But even if Shark pitches well, he’s like a 7 game winner which is unrosterable

4:14
Bring back DeSpaniel Hair: Are you, like Sheryl, a Matt Harvey truther?

4:14
Brad Johnson: No, I’m pretty hands off with Harvey

4:15
Brad Johnson: I don’t have any shares, although I have nothing against a no-cost dice roll on him

4:15
You ma fren: On the precipice of another fantasy baseball season, what are some of your key actions that lead to a successful season – along the lines of, dont be an a-hole in trade talks, watch closer battles early, etc.

4:15
Brad Johnson: Biggest thing you can do is manage your team daily, especially after lineups are posted.

4:15
Brad Johnson: That’s a good 20% of the game.

4:16
Mike Piazza: Do we know where Danny Jansen will hit in the lineup?  Do you like him over Gomes, Cervelli?

4:16
Brad Johnson: We know very little about where anybody will bat after April 10 or so.

4:16
Brad Johnson: I do like him over Gomes. I think Cervelli is better, but he also has a history of concussions

4:16
Stage 5: So, “jerking around” is a knee-jerk assumption based on nothing the team has said or done so far this year, as compared to legit and overt shenanigans from Blue Jays, White Sox, etc.? Hard to respect someone who spouts crap like this when the Mets have seemed to do everything right re: Alonso this spring.

4:17
Brad Johnson: Where are all these Mets apologists coming from?

4:17
Brad Johnson: We have a long and storied history of the Mets comically mismanaging anything that can be mismanaged

4:18
Brad Johnson: Mesoraco was just yesterday…

4:18
Don Von Handburger: The Chris Paddack hype-o-meter is buzzing and shaking! I’m considering drafting him ahead of the likes of Hamels, Bumgarner, and Ryu.  Am I crazy?

4:18
Brad Johnson: Definitely take him over Hamels

4:18
Brad Johnson: I think the percentage play is Bum or Ryu over Paddack, but the ceiling is probably better for Paddack

4:19
Anthony: Ryan Mcmahon or Wilmer Flores as a breakout middle infield option this year?

4:19
Brad Johnson: Maybe McMahon with some Coors inflation. I’m not that keen about Flores

4:19
Brad Johnson: He’s a 1 WAR utility guy who briefly looked like a sneaky late pick because he was going to get 650 PA

4:19
Brad Johnson: Now he’s back in line for his usual 400 PA

4:19
Gonzalez: Who benefits in a k/9 league with sv+holds? Target RP earlier than usual?

4:20
Brad Johnson: Most leagues are secretly K/9. If there’s an innings cap, it’s K/9. I don’t think you need to change your RP valuations for that format. If anything it devalues saves slightly.

4:20
Mister Lobster: If Willson Contreras is 75% of his 2017 production, that’s still a top 5 catcher in most formats, right? I feel like he’s being judged too harshly on his 2018 performance.

4:21
Brad Johnson: I’m shocked I don’t have any Contreras shares. I’m fully on board with him as a top 4 C

4:21
Brad Johnson: I guess every league I’m in has one believer.

4:22
Jake: I’m in a NL auction dynasty league and  I can spend 40% of my money on Sherzer and Degrom which will probably give me the best pitching(or 2nd best) as well as probably the 2nd, maybe the 1st best offense in the league based on my keepers.  The thing I keep debating is if one of them go down I’m screwed.  Do you like the idea of grabbing both and if healthy I have a good chance to win the league or just grab one and spread the money out a bit more on the pitching to hedge my bet.

4:22
Brad Johnson: I don’t know how to evaluate your alternatives based on his info.

4:23
Brad Johnson: If it’s a matter of get those SP or roster backup position players and a bunch of Luke Weaver/Zach Eflin types, then I’d bid on the aces

4:23
Rick Sanchez: Are the Pablo Lopez / Caleb Smith / Trevor Richards rosterable in 12 teamers?

4:23
Brad Johnson: Streamers imo

4:23
Brad Johnson: They can start on a roster just in case, but you’ll probably move on quickly.

4:24
Stage 5: Seriously, Adrian Gonzalez, Jose Reyes? Those were bad decisions, but they have nothing to do with Alonso this year. I am sorry that I clicked on this chat. You’re a great disappointment  to me. I am cutting you out of the holiday letter mailing list.

4:24
Brad Johnson: Some folk don’t appreciate humor

4:24
Willie: 12 team roto re-draft – would you drop either Josh James or Dereck Rodriguez for any of the Marlins young guns ? P. Lopez, Richards or Smith?

4:24
Brad Johnson: Yea, that’s all the same asset class

4:24
Brad Johnson: Whichever you like most

4:25
Oddball Herrera: Reds second base: proof once again that it takes very little time to go from “what do we do with this logjam of players?!?!” to Jose Iglesias

4:25
baseballdude: have not seen any updates regarding the Padres OF situation.  holding onto Franmil in hopes he is given a starting job.  Should i drop for someone else like Mcmahon?

4:25
Brad Johnson: Stick with Franmil for now. They love him.

4:26
Brad Johnson: Renfroe might draw the short straw

4:26
Tom: How high of a priority would you put on picking up Freddy Peralta in a standard 5×5 roto league? Would you drop any of McHugh, Skaggs, Cron, Kang or Danny Jansen to grab him?

4:26
Brad Johnson: No priority. He’s just a guy.

4:26
Brad Johnson: So too are Skaggs and Kang depending on your depth

4:27
Jake: Which Marlins SPs could you see getting Pivetta/Hendrickson/Darvish/Ray or better type results

4:27
Brad Johnson: Weird to resurrect Mark Hendrickson for that list.

4:28
Brad Johnson: The three we’ve been discussing (Smith, Lopez, Richards) have that sort of hype to them

4:28
Seth: Are you buying a Wade Miley break out with the Astros? I know he had a good spring but it’s only spring training

4:28
Brad Johnson: I buy his breakout with the Brewers. Not expecting anything more than that. Which is basically a middle class version of Dallas Keuchel

4:29
Matt: Who you first to drop from An Sanchez, Gibson, Keller, Hellickson, Montas, P Lopez? Dynasty league, so I love the upside potential with Montas/Lopez, and thinking Hellickson’s late-season pitch mix change can create a serviceable #5…so I’m thinking Gibson is the low man?

4:29
Brad Johnson: Hellickson and Montas seem like easy cuts to me. I just don’t see a rotation future for Montas, and his stuff is no longer special for the bullpen either.

4:29
LFC Mike: Sonny Grey … redemption time? He was not complementary as to the way NY made him pitch vs. the way/style he feels comfortable with.

4:29
Brad Johnson: Yea, I’m cautiously in on Gray

4:30
Tom: Have my draft tonight. In a 12 team H2H OBP redraft mixed league. How much do you think Trea Turner is worth? I love the idea of him, but does his steals advantage really help you that much in the small sample of one week?

4:30
Brad Johnson: While he can singlehandedly win you a category several weeks a year, his low-ish OBP prices him out of the 1st round.

4:30
Bring back DeSpaniel Hair: I’m sad about Robles lineup slot… his value is almost zero for me

4:30
Brad Johnson: Be patient, this was always likely

4:31
Brad Johnson: Others can try to buy low on him batting low

4:31
Brad Johnson: Though I suspect few people are selling

4:31
Anthony: Tatis Jr. break camp with the big club…or a few weeks, OR months in AAA? I know you can’t “know”…but curious as to what you’re thinking.

4:32
Brad Johnson: Definitely not breaking camp. I went to a Padres game last Friday and watched him scamper around the bases after reaching twice on infield hits

4:32
Brad Johnson: He’s extremely talented but also overmatched by Triple-A Rockies pitchers

4:32
Austin: Paddack over Junis?

4:32
Brad Johnson: Easy yes

4:32
Brad Johnson: Junis is fine. Paddack might be special

4:32
baseballdude: looking to grab a 2b in case my starting 2b Villar is horrific.  do you prefer Ketel Marte, McMahon, McNeil, Brandon Lowe, or Joey Wendle? (or is Villar going to be startable)?  12 team H2H points league.

4:33
Brad Johnson: Marte’s my pick from that list

4:33
Brad Johnson: Playing time being an issue with the others

4:33
Brad Johnson: Though if I knew they were starting near 100%, I’d take any over Villar’s SBs

4:33
Desperate, Confused Marlins Fan: I got Brad peacock for a buck, Mchugh still on the wire. should i grab him too? I also have Gerrit Cole. too much ‘stros right?

4:33
Brad Johnson: Nah, no such thing as too many ‘Stros

4:34
Stage 5: Do you need to be an apologist to recognize that Alonso hasn’t been jerked around at this point? Just objectively compare his treatment- in what was a semi-legit position battle with Dom Smith– to what you saw with Vlad Jr, Eloy, etc. Which one of these three has been treated best?

4:35
Brad Johnson: Alonso was also explicitly left off the September roster despite arguably being the most MLB ready by classic standards. I don’t think there’s a case to be made that the Mets have been good to him to date.

4:35
CaptBaldy: What do you think of draft day category goals?  Drafting 11 team 4×4 NL only team this weekend and wondering how much time to spend on that, if any?

4:35
Brad Johnson: I think having goals is very important. Scripting how you get there should be extremely fluid though

4:35
Weenie: Could Tim Beckham be back to 2017 form? I picked him up in my deep league

4:36
Brad Johnson: Maybe? I won’t rule it out entirely.

4:36
Brad Johnson: 2017 Beckham wasn’t exactly good

4:36
Brad Johnson: He was barely a starting MI in 12-team mixed

4:36
Hakaida: How does a tiered keeper system work in fantasy? Like top 2 teams keep 6, next 2 keep 7, and so on and so forth?

4:37
Brad Johnson: I actually haven’t personally experienced this despite designing some formats that use it

4:37
Brad Johnson: Theoretically, it can be decently redistributive as long as you also don’t encourage tanking

4:38
Chuck: Hi, Brad, I need an infielder while Lindor heals. Wendle or Hampson?

4:38
Brad Johnson: Either is fine. Wendle will play with more certainty, Hampson has a better chance to turn into a tradeable asset.

4:38
Bring back DeSpaniel Hair: But, seriously Brad… you’re a great disappointment to me!

4:38
Anonymous: If ‘Followers’ have a higher chance of getting Wins, do ‘Openers’ run a higher risk of taking a Loss (for leagues that penalize losses). Related: How’s TB short guys shake out this year?

4:39
Brad Johnson: I haven’t done that math

4:39
Brad Johnson: I suspect the risk is higher but not substantially so

4:39
Dave: Dwight Smith Jr or Tauchman OF5 in AL-only?

4:39
Brad Johnson: Tauchman. Not really in on Smith at all. You’ll need a fresh solution before long in either case.

4:39
tacopocket: who do you like better – schwarber or mcmahon?

4:40
Brad Johnson: EZ Schwarber for now

4:40
Don Juan: Morrow should be claimed in fantasy, right?  Mid tier reliever in a month?

4:40
Brad Johnson: If you have the IL slot, sure. I’d expect him out until mid-May though.

4:40
Brad Johnson: He has a LONG history of taking longer than estimates to return

4:40
Greg: What are your thoughts on Samardzila and Reyanldo lopez as buzzworthy late round pitching sleepers?

4:41
Brad Johnson: I’m not really interested. I’ll make sure to check their starts though.

4:42
Chris : Do you like your Urias or Reyes as sleepers from the Padres?

4:42
Brad Johnson: Yes

4:42
Brad Johnson: Though I think Urias is going to take a couple years to be more than a guy

4:42
Brad Johnson: Consider him like the 2016 version of Ketel Marte for now

4:43
tacopocket: huge mets fan but you can NEVER trust them to make the right decision….hell, alonso making the team is the wrong decision!!

4:43
Pete(r) Alonso: Am I in Las Vegas or Queens on Opening Day? I have had no updates in a while

4:43
Brad Johnson: I think the math is pretty clearly in favor of Vegas

4:43
Stage 5: There’s no argument that the Mets haven’t been guilty of a lot of mismanagement over the years; also, they’re under a voraciously hungry microscope. But people have been suggesting for months that Alonso is going to be a victim of service time manipulation- in spite of everything the Mets have said. It looks like they will actually be true to their word and put him on their opening day roster; no one’s asking y’all to eat your words or give the team a medal, but to continue suggesting that he’ll be jerked around when he has very much not been jerked around? I think that’s pretty weak. I would love for just one writer/blogger/diamondbag with a platform like this to say, you know what, the Mets are imperfect, but maybe they’ve treated Alonso right this spring.

4:44
Brad Johnson: When he actually makes the OD roster, I will. I think it’s under 50% to happen.

4:44
Don Von Handburger: Have the Rays announced which of their relievers will be “openers?”

4:44
Brad Johnson: That’s not really how they operate

4:44
Brad Johnson: Chirinos will follow

4:44
Brad Johnson: probably Beeks too

4:44
Hanley Heisenberg Ramirez: Knebel worth stashing anywhere?

4:44
Brad Johnson: No

4:44
Brad Johnson: maybe deep dynasty as a keeper

4:45
Brad Johnson: maybe…

4:45
Rick Honeycutt: who is paddack-lite that I should be looking for?

4:45
Brad Johnson: Wilson and Wright in Atlanta

4:45
Don Von Handburger: Which Lowe on Tampa is the good one?

4:45
Brad Johnson: Joshua 🙂

4:45
Brad Johnson: I bet on Twitter his career is better than Brandon+Nate combined

4:45
rooster: Convince me that Daniel Murphy isn’t going to become the next Ian Desmond

4:46
Brad Johnson: No thanks, I don’t feel like it. They’re very dissimilar players though.

4:46
Brad Johnson: At worst, Murphy is just an ordinary, maybe injury prone 1B

4:46
Brad Johnson: Or maybe he’s a batting champ

4:47
Mario Mendoza: For a backup IF, do you like a good hitting part-timer (Chris Taylor, Jeff McNeil) or a bad starter (Wong, FP Crawford)

4:47
Brad Johnson: Crawford is starting in Triple-A

4:47
Brad Johnson: If those are your options, the part-timer

4:47
Gavin: Do you like Odor? He’s my 2B right now with Cano 1B eligible.. I don’t know how to feel about this…

4:48
Brad Johnson: Yea, he’s fine.

4:48
Brad Johnson: Just be patient with interminable slumps and hope he eventually comes out of them

4:48
HappyFunBall: Do I need 1 week of Jose Ramirez insurance?

4:48
Brad Johnson: Probably

4:48
I’m Jon Snow and I know nothing: Velasquez looks horrible this spring. Does he keep his rotation spot this year, or does he get bumped?

4:48
Brad Johnson: VV seems like a classic Follower, and the Phillies have great personnel to put that in play

4:49
Brad Johnson: But also, if Jerad Eickhoff is healthy, then VV is pretty clearly their 6th best SP

4:49
Brad Johnson: Although Eflin is the only one they can option

4:49
Brad Johnson: And they really don’t have a long relief role available for a 6th SP

4:49
Billy Beane: Speaking of Ketel Marte. Was really psyched on him. Now I’m not so sure. Is he the leadoff guy or is he in the 6th hole? Big difference in value there…. Your thoughts?

4:50
Brad Johnson: Bet he bounces around a lot as they shuffle through different scenarios

4:50
Jad Bronson: 10 tm mixed league too shallow for owning Jeff McNeil?

4:50
Brad Johnson: Way too shallow

4:50
Brad Johnson: 12 mixed is pretty fringy

4:50
Brad Johnson: I like McNeil a lot too, but lack of opportunity and category fuel really limit him

4:51
Lars: what do you think about adam conley, tayron g, diego castillo, or loe trivino in a 12 team league with k/9, holds, saves? what order would you take them in?

4:51
Brad Johnson: Castillo, Trivino, Marlins

4:51
Connie Mack & Cheese: Just how much upside are you thinking with Paddack?  Is he more ownable than say, Stripling?

4:51
Brad Johnson: I’d take Strip, but that’s a pretty good line

4:51
Brad Johnson: In both cases, you’re wishcasting

4:51
Brad Johnson: Which is fine in the mid-rounds

4:51
Dave: Better stash for 2020– Didi or McCullers?

4:52
Brad Johnson: Probably Didi. Pitchers being especially fragile and all

4:52
HappyFunBall: Is Stage 5 related to Alonso? He seems awfully defensive…

4:52
Brad Johnson: I think it’s likelier he’s a Wilpon

4:53
Closers suck: Boxberger or Wily. who has more talent?

4:53
Brad Johnson: EZ Boxberger

4:53
Brad Johnson: That said, he could be completely broken right now

4:53
Brad Johnson: hot tip, put Zimmer on your watchlist

4:53
Brad Johnson: Seems to have been resurrected by Driveline

4:53
Brad Johnson: Or so I’m told

4:53
Leake Cauldron: Thoughts on Austin Meadows as playable in 12-team

4:54
Brad Johnson: Big plus! Hearing he’ll leadoff vs RHP

4:54
Brad Johnson: Which is just an early season thing but still a lot of fun to see

4:54
Dave: Early season bench strategy, all other things being equal– roster position players, starters, or relievers?

4:54
Brad Johnson: I roster depth where it’s most needed

4:54
Brad Johnson: That varies by team

4:54
Always bat flip : Lost Scooter in 12-team H2H with OBP. Would you prefer to pick up and start McNeil or Kiki? Assume no glaring category needs

4:54
Brad Johnson: Maybe Hernandez at first

4:55
JT: Is Diego Castillo worth holding onto in 12 team 6×6 roto (QS, SV, IP, K/9, ERA, WHIP)?

4:55
Brad Johnson: If you got this far with him, might as well see how the first few weeks shake out between him and Alvarado

4:55
Biggy: Who is this years Bauer?  Berrios, Flaherty, or Buehler?

4:56
Brad Johnson: I think Flaherty and Buehler are ineligible

4:56
Brad Johnson: having already established themselves.

4:56
Brad Johnson: I did pick Berrios to win the AL Cy (partly because I picked the Twins to win the ALC, and that division has like 3 hitters not on the Twins).

4:56
Leake Cauldron: K. Marte or Jeff McNeil to start the year

4:56
Brad Johnson: Marte

4:57
tacopocket: I’ve asked a bunch of Qs.  Not sure if i asked this one:   Do you trade piscotty for luis castillo in a 5X5 12 man league (i am sorry if I did ask this)
thanks again for the advice

4:57
Brad Johnson: Yea that’s fair if you need the pitching

4:57
Bring back DeSpaniel Hair: Between Puig, BringerOfRain and DMurph, do I have too much injury risk in my starting lineup? Could add Devers to my bench

4:57
Brad Johnson: No, but add Devers anyway

4:57
Dave: Is Cesar Hernandez’ position in the batting order a significant concern at this point?

4:57
Brad Johnson: Yes. The spring injury ruined his chance to defend himself as the leadoff man

4:58
Brad Johnson: He’ll have to play his way back in which will be hard in that lineup

4:58
Tom: Follow up question: Is there any reason to believe that Turner starts hitting more HR. And if not, was there really any more reason to think that Lindor and Ramirez would turn into 30 HR guys?

4:58
Brad Johnson: Not really, he has one of the highest soft contact rates in the league

4:58
tacopocket: What are the odds the Phillies sign Keuchel and move VV to the pen?  5%?  I’m sure it depends on the cost but I think that makes the phillies much better

4:58
Brad Johnson: Probably better than 5%.

4:59
Brad Johnson: I suspect the Phillies have one of, if not the strongest offer on the table

4:59
Brad Johnson: It’s just a matter of Keuchel accepting a short term deal

5:00
Brad Johnson: Boras might have convinced him to wait until a contender is desperate, but I suspect with the way teams are bidding for talent, even a desperate team will only go over their “values” by a few mil

5:00
Don Von Handburger: Do you think the trade to STL was beneficial or malignant to Goldschmidt’s SB production?

5:00
Brad Johnson: That was already in a rapid fade

5:00
Mario Mendoza: re:josh lowe, is that because you like him, or are you making point that Brandon & Nate are overrated?

5:00
Brad Johnson: A little of both

5:01
Brad Johnson: Though I will admit I was shook by the Rays extending Lowe

5:01
Brad Johnson: They obviously like him a LOT more than I do to give him the Kingery deal

5:01
TX Spur: What other Fangraphs writer challenges your thinking and approach the most?

5:01
Brad Johnson: That’s a fun question

5:02
Brad Johnson: I think Jeff Zimmerman approaches fantasy in an incompatible way to me. I wouldn’t be able to co-manage with him

5:02
Brad Johnson: Sporer probably has the most epic/incredulous arguments with me

5:02
Brad Johnson: Though we usually secretly agree about the player and are actually arguing over what certain words mean

5:03
Brad Johnson: (ahem, *mediocre*)

5:03
Stage 5: Stage 5 not a Wilpon, not an Alonso, not a Mets employee, just a person avoiding work and challenging lazy assumptions…

5:03
Don Von Handburger: What is the most immature fantasy team name you’ve ever had?

5:04
Brad Johnson: I still have Brad’s Hand in FG Staff one, which I implemented immediately upon drafting Brad Hand (who I still own 3 years later).

5:04
Brad Johnson: That was a GoT reference in addition to innuendo

5:04
AL G: Any thoughts on Aaron Sanchez?  Chances he can rebound?

5:04
Brad Johnson: No deep thoughts, I’m interested to see him work

5:04
tacopocket: cody allens gonna lose that job soon, right?   Who’s next Buttrey?

5:05
Brad Johnson: Dunno about Allen losing the job. Before last year, he’d often struggle early then dominate in the second half

5:05
Brad Johnson: Buttrey does seem to be next

5:05
Hans: Cron or Cano for 1b?

5:05
Brad Johnson: Cano!

5:05
Jake: Please help with my last two keepers!  AL only 10 teams, 4X4 standard Pick two of Y Gurriel $10, Voit $10, Grichuk $10 Soler $5, Marco Gonzalez $5 Rodon $5 Brandon Lowe $10. Thanks

5:05
Brad Johnson: You still have keepers to pick!

5:06
Brad Johnson: Uh, I wanna say Gurriel and Marco, but I feel really sad about leaving Voit

5:07
Brad Johnson: I’d cross off Lowe and Soler

5:08
Brad Johnson: If you need to prioritize power, keep Grichuk

5:08
Brad Johnson: If you need steady production Gurriel is nice. I like Marco more than Rodon for this year.

5:08
Brad Johnson: And I kinda trust Voit to land a bigger share of PT than Bird

5:09
Brad Johnson: That’s a tricky group to parse quickly. Good luck.

5:09
Michael: NFBC ADP seems really high on pitchers – Is this because of the 15-team format? Are pitchers (Scherzer, Sale, deGrom) still viable first rounders in 12-team leagues?

5:09
Brad Johnson: Yes, and some groupthink

5:09
Brad Johnson: It was widely accepted that aces are a MUST this year

5:09
Kevin: Strasburg or Corbin this season?

5:09
Brad Johnson: Push

5:09
Brad Johnson: Same asset class

5:09
Yankz: Believe in a D Peralta repeat?

5:10
Brad Johnson: Not exactly, but I think he’ll be solid

5:10
aka22: NL Only MI options looking like Wong or Neil Walker… have a preference? Wong feels better, but I’m thinking in the heart of the Marlins order Walker might actually be more valuable than Wong batting #8.

5:10
Brad Johnson: I’d try Walker personally

5:10
Brad Johnson: Similar thinking

5:10
Johnny5Alive: If your NL only pitching staff in an auction roto league is already nola, buehler and pivetta, do you still bid big (estimating ~$50) for deGrom as the best starter available, or spread it around to a couple middle tier and/or high upside guys that are available (i.e. robbie ray, luis castillo, your boy paddack).

5:10
Brad Johnson: I’d try for deGrom personally

5:10
Brad Johnson: Planning to get multiples always goes sour for me

5:11
Don Dadda: Better upside power add: O’Hearn, Healy, Franmil, C Stewart?

5:11
Brad Johnson: Franmil, but he has PT concerns

5:11
Brad Johnson: Stewart next best

5:11
2 Shoes: 4 year deal for Hendricks.  With such a low ceiling, but high floor, how do you view him when building a team?

5:11
Brad Johnson: IP volume, nothing more

5:12
Brad Johnson: and I don’t expect him to maintain it for 4 years

5:12
CW: Which side do you have in a 10 tm keep forever, OBP/QS league: Archer/A. Mondesi/J. Abreu for J.Verlander/N. Cruz   I’m in win now mode

5:12
Brad Johnson: Verlander

5:12
Brad Johnson: It’s basically Archer/Mondesi for Verlander

5:13
Brad Johnson: In a super shallow league so there’s no need to fret about Mondesi’s future value

5:13
Brian: Are you taking Corbin Burns or McCugh in a 12 team dynasty?

5:13
Brad Johnson: The dynasty wrinkle makes this worth thinking about. For 2019, the play is McHugh

5:13
Brad Johnson: Are letting go of Jimmy Nelson and Heaney shares given their injury reports?

5:13
Brad Johnson: I never was back on Nelson

5:14
Brad Johnson: He was good so briefly, and there’s no indication he’s recovered that talent level

5:14
Brad Johnson: I do like Heaney, but I’m shying away for now

5:14
Brad Johnson: Not sure I’d cut him just yet unless guys like Wright/Wilson are available.

5:14
Brad Johnson: Or better

5:14
BirdMan: How would you rank Musgrove, McHugh, Lucchesi and Skaggs? Any of them a must own in a 10 team H2H?

5:15
Brad Johnson: In that order. Maybe Musgrove

5:15
Rick: Any chance Edwards ends up closing for the Cubs at some point?

5:15
Brad Johnson: Yes, there’s a chance

5:15
Brad Johnson: But it’s not especially large

5:15
CaptBaldy: Atlanta’s Wilson or Wright?  Thinking Wilson?

5:15
Brad Johnson: I like Wright a little more for immediate production

5:15
Brad Johnson: And yes

5:15
Patty: Is Garrett Hampson going to be a sneaky shortstop eligible add? Or will he lose so much time to Ryan McMahon that he is unrosterable?

5:15
Brad Johnson: That’s the million dollar question

5:15
Brad Johnson: We don’t know

5:16
Rico: Buying a Yu Darvish rebound year, or is he done?

5:16
Brad Johnson: Cautiously buying

5:16
Brad Johnson: Think I got 1 share

5:16
Walugi Time: Do you roster high upside starters with reliable bench (choo, hosmer, etc) or more reliable starters with high-upside bench?

5:16
Brad Johnson: It varies considerably. I usually aim for high upside + high upside

5:17
League Rules: What semi-common league rules or settings chap your ass the most?

5:17
Brad Johnson: Weekly anything

5:17
Brad Johnson: I can’t pay attention

5:17
Brad Johnson: I draft the teams then assign a co-manager

5:17
Brad Johnson: and advise on decisions

5:17
Michael: Wouldn’t Heaney also fall under that he was only good so briefly category though?

5:17
Brad Johnson: Kind of

5:17
Brad Johnson: Heaney’s been quite good for awhile, but he can’t seem to stay on the field enough to prove it

5:18
Brad Johnson: I’ve been in on Heaney since like 2014

5:18
Brad Johnson: Ok, time to start wrapping up

5:18
Siri: Peraza or Cezar Hernandez?

5:18
Brad Johnson: I like Cesar more

5:18
CaptBaldy: A Conley getting enough saves (chances) to be worth rostering?

5:18
Brad Johnson: I’m speculating on him, but only in deep formats

5:18
Brad Johnson: Should be there as a pick up in shallower leagues

5:18
Brad Johnson: Like 12-team mixed

5:19
Sharky: Any chance David Robertson will be used in high leverage situations and have Dominguez close it out? Thank you Brad

5:19
Brad Johnson: Oh yes, the Phillies bullpen will be highly fluid

5:19
Brad Johnson: Predicting around 20 SV for Robertson, 12 for Ser, maybe 8-10 for Neris, and a few more spread to others

5:20
Aaron: Speaking of high upside, where do you stand on Donaldson?  Guy is 1 bad calf removed from being a top-10 hitter.

5:20
Brad Johnson: I like him. Seems like every league has somebody who’s really in on him though

5:20
bruce: 5×5 Mullins or Gardner the first week

5:20
Brad Johnson: I’d probably try Mullins as I’m still not clear on Gardner’s role

5:21
Brad Johnson: They might be assessing Tauchman…

5:21
Walugi Time: In a league where everyone chases high upside, that would make a guy like Hosmer undervalued. Wouldn’t you say that year-long he’s a lock to make top-15 1b, but since he wont get to top 10 he gets overlooked?

5:21
Brad Johnson: He didn’t make top 15 last year so I can’t say he’s a lock

5:21
Brad Johnson: There’s also a decent chance he loses time to Wil Myers in a confusing OF/1B platoon

5:22
Jung Ho Kang Bang: Will Brandon Lowe have enough value to be rostered in a 10 team H2H?

5:22
Brad Johnson: Almost certainly not

5:22
Jon: With my auction a few days away, I still have a share of Wily Peralta, but it’s making me queasy. Fine to cut ties with him, stay away from the Royals bullpen, and try to grab someone like Trevor May instead?

5:22
Brad Johnson: Yes, cut ties

5:22
Brad Johnson: That’s an emergency pick up, not somebody to roster OD

5:22
Brawndo: Just dealt Pollock for J. Gray in 10 x 10 H2H leagu. Bueno or no bueno?

5:22
Brad Johnson: The hell is 10×10?

5:23
Brad Johnson: The categories will provide the answer. Usually, Pollock is WAY better than Gray

5:23
Matt: Based on Cashman’s history, Tauchman is basically a must-add, right?

5:23
Brad Johnson: Kinda feels like it, huh?

5:23
CaptBaldy: How do you set draft day goals, category or player tiers?

5:24
Brad Johnson: I manage the categories, and there are some I’m less concerned about solving right away

5:24
Brad Johnson: Saves are easiest to skip

5:24
Brad Johnson: I’ll try to get one good closer though

5:25
Brad Johnson: Then sometimes I end up with 4 late game CL

5:25
Johnny5Alive: What do you see out of Tapia this year? I know Rockies and all, but he should see a bunch of outfield time, no?

5:25
Brad Johnson: Only if there are injuries

5:25
Brad Johnson: And they’ve not succeeded in quieting down his goofy mechanics

5:25
Brad Johnson: He’s a 5th outfielder imo

5:25
Brad Johnson: Though he’s also very interesting if he happens to start at Coors

5:25
Brawndo: 10 categories x 10 teams

5:26
Brad Johnson: Oh phew

5:26
Brad Johnson: Strong preference for Pollock though

5:26
Trader Bob: Ian Happ in a keeper league. A hold but … how much of one? Is he the new Russell Branyan?

5:26
Brad Johnson: Not a bad comp except Happ can’t hit velocity. Branyan was more of a Pedro Cerrano

5:26
JD: Should I be worried about Max Muncy being in a platoon situation?

5:26
Brad Johnson: Only early. It’ll solve itself

5:27
Matt: Thoughts on LaMaheiu? He should pretty quickly gain 3B, and maybe 1B, right? Good multi-positional depth guy?

5:27
Brad Johnson: Yea. I like him as depth, but we might have to wait for an injury for full PT

5:27
Austin: Should Hader owners be excited for more saves, or more of the same?

5:27
Brad Johnson: Pretty excited for now

5:27
Brad Johnson: Even if they sign Kimbrel, he’s 3 weeks out or more

5:27
Jung Ho Kang Bang: Which Giants pitchers do you like?  Is anyone besides Bumgarner more than a streamer at Oracle?  Rodriguez, Samardzija, Pomeranz, Holland.

5:28
Brad Johnson: I like ’em all as streaming targets. But I agree, no need to roster permanently in 12-mixed

5:28
Chuck: Any interest in Frankie Montas, since he’s added a pitch and named for the rotation?

5:28
Brad Johnson: Not yet

5:28
Brad Johnson: Ok, that’s ballgame. Thanks for playing

We hoped you liked reading Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 3/26/2019 by Brad Johnson!

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LFC Mike
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Member
LFC Mike

Brad, seems like you and the Padres front office disagree on Tatis Jr. He is breaking camp with team….we will soon find out just how ready he is. I am a big fan of his but I am in your camp on him going to AAA for a few games. Very interesting.