2023 Projection Showdown — THE BAT X vs Steamer Home Run Forecasts, Part 2

Yesterday, I began a new series, pitting THE BAT/THE BAT X against Steamer in a series of projection comparisons. I started off by identifying eight hitters who THE BAT X was projecting for a greater home run total over a 600 AB pace. Let’s now find out which hitters Steamer is forecasting for a greater home run total than THE BAT X.

Well this was unexpected. If you recall yesterday, the most optimistic THE BAT X projection versus Steamer resulted in just a 5.9 home run difference. Here, the biggest difference is 12.2, with two hitters in double digits. A whopping 18 hitters exceed the 5.9 home run difference the hitter THE BAT X was most optimistic about! Turns out, Steamer is simply more bullish on home runs than THE BAT X is, as it projects 5,362 home runs hit by the top 300 hitters in projected homers, versus just 4,882 for THE BAT X. With that clarified, let’s turn to the specific hitters.

Oscar Gonzalez tops the list of hitters Steamer is more bullish on for homers compared to THE BAT X. The 24-year-old debuted last year after some interesting minor league metrics. The rookie enjoyed a power spike in 2021 and sustained it in 2022, but THE BAT X just ain’t buying it. Steamer is most optimistic about his ISO, projecting the highest mark among the system, but still below the consistent .200+ marks he has posted since 2021 in the minors. The big question here is whether he’ll increase his FB% to take advantage of his power. A FB% below 30% isn’t ideal for a supposed power hitter, so it’s possible the two systems heavily disagree on his batted ball distribution.

Vinnie Pasquantino is another 2022 rookie who burst onto the scene after strong minor league performances. He’s got a fascinating skill set that’s exceedingly rare to find. Not only has he shown strong power (though his HR/FB rate has yet to eclipse 20%), but his plate discipline has been sublime. He has consistently walked around the same number of times as he has struck out and swings and misses quite infrequently. No pressure on Pasquantino, but this is a very Albert Pujolsian set of skills! Once again, we find that THE BAT X is most pessimistic and Steamer most optimistic among the systems. Personally, I’m a Pasquantino fan and side closer to Steamer’s high end than THE BAT X’s low end.

Spencer Steer is the third straight 2022 rookie atop the list, which makes sense, as rookies are far tougher to project than veterans are. After five straight double digit HR/FB rates in the minors, Steer managed just a 7.7% mark over a small sample during his cup of coffee with the Reds last year. The Statcast metrics were unimpressive, between his maxEV and Barrel%, so it’s likely THE BAT X is weighing what little Statcast data we have pretty heavily. With little speed and an expected batting average that’s unimpressive, he’ll need his power to bounce back to his minor league levels to be worth even considering in even deeper mixed leagues.

The fourth best prospect in baseball according to our rankings, Corbin Carroll rocketed through the minors last year and produced a fantasy owners’ dream line, hitting 23 homers and swiping 31 bases. He seemingly didn’t miss a beat during his taste of MLB action, but a maxEV of just 107.5 MPH and a 5.5% Barrel% were disappointing and don’t justify a 20% HR/FB rate. Good thing it was a small sample so how he performed during his first taste matters little! With a significantly lower xSLG than actual SLG, it’s likely that THE BAT X is more heavily weighing his small sample MLB performance, and weighing his minor league performance a bit less than Steamer. Great, hopefully everyone is scared away from Carroll so I could grab him cheaper in my leagues! That power/speed combo upside is too tantalizing to concern yourself with a mere 115 PA sample in the Majors.

The rookie parade continues, as we move to Triston Casas, who also showed an advanced knowledge of hitting by routinely posting big walk rates in the minors without striking out too often. He, too, overperformed his xSLG, but did so in even fewer PAs than Carroll did. Of course, I wouldn’t expect him to maintain a 26.3% HR/FB rate, whether that was backed by Statcast data or not. I think THE BAT X is far too pessimistic here, but I’m not sure he’ll be much of a shallow mixed league asset anyway. That said, he gets a massive value boost in OBP leagues.

Our final rookie (and no, I didn’t filter this list for just rookies!) is Shea Langeliers, who may have lost his catcher eligibility depending on your league rules. Luckily, he should earn it pretty quickly as the team’s starting backstop. He was another who massively outperformed his xSLG, though his maxEV and Barrel% were perfectly solid. I think again THE BAT X is putting too much weight on small sample Statcast data, which means I personally believe his power output will be closer to Steamer’s forecast.