15 Starting Pitchers, Just Because

This offseason I set out on a personal journey. Sentences like that usually precede stories of enlightenment, and I suppose this story features some enlightenment of its own. We won’t know how much enlightenment until after the 2022 season concludes.

I’m not asked this question often, but I have been asked it often enough to have a stock answer for it. It’s some variation of, “What’s the best thing someone can do to improve as a fantasy baseball player?”, to which my answer is some variation of, “Develop an opinion about every player—well, not every player, but you know what I mean.”

This is something that, when I had more time on my hands, I used to do. But in 2020 I became a work-from-home/stay-at-home father navigating a pandemic, and I burned out. Although I managed sporadic success and positive returns on investment in the 2020 and 2021 seasons, I was lucky to escape unscathed—I was all but flying blind. I was, and still am, fortunate to have years and years of watching baseball and playing fantasy baseball to have built an encyclopedic knowledge about most players.

It’s easy, however, to miss the big changes—the breakouts, the fall-offs, the rookies. It’s easy to dismiss them, and easier yet to enter a draft room and ignore them all together. Indeed, you can build a winning team without deeply investigating these types of players, instead relying on existing knowledge about existing players. You can do it, but it’s difficult, and it’s foolish.

So, I dedicated myself to the task of developing opinions about nearly every player.

It almost worked—I dove deep on roughly 150 starting pitchers and probably another 120 relief pitchers before burning out. I documented all my thoughts in what is now a 68-page, 33,000-word document, which became my north star in slow drafts. The burnout was worth it: I felt I achieved a lucidity with respect to player analysis I hadn’t attained in years. Hence, the enlightenment.

Of course, it remains to be see how enlightened I really became. Then, it was my north star; now, it’s a manner of accountability, something to which I plan to return in October to evaluate my evaluations. Because what’s the point in developing a process and not rigorously testing that process? The season is its own test, sure, but good results does not equal good process (ditto, the inverse).

I will keep myself accountable, but I figured, hey, why don’t you keep me accountable, too? Maybe you’ll come away reading my analysis of a pitcher have a new opinion, or maybe you’ll have your existing opinion bolstered, or maybe you’ll think I’m way off base and how on earth did Alex end up where he did. All great outcomes! All great outcomes. I’m not even sure I will agree with myself in October. That, of course, is the benefit—and bias—of hindsight.

Speaking of bias: I wrote all of these blurbs without consulting anything except FanGraphs, Statcast, and my Pitch Leaderboard tools (including my personal sleeper, the Pitch Comps tool, to which I will refer routinely). I wanted to develop opinions unsullied by outside sources, to rid myself of other peoples’ biases, of groupthink. If I were to succumb to any bias, let it be my own, and let me expose myself to it. That said, if you feel like you’ve read some of this analysis somewhere else, it’s purely coincidence. Ideally, if you already read something here somewhere else, it means it is correct and good analysis, and therefore you should be encountering it through multiple sources. External validation, baby.

This is a long prologue—par for the course for me, but I wanted to paint the picture, lay the groundwork, you know. The player blurbs you read henceforth, ordered alphabetically, are lifted straight from my document, unedited (unless for clarity or profanity). They are also “first instincts”—that is, they do not factor in any offseason news or spring training developments, which can be crucial. These ones I found most interesting, primarily because the player surprised me, for better or worse. If you’re unclear about terminology, there’s a glossary at the end of this post. Otherwise, without further ado: 15 starting pitchers, just because.

Aaron Nola | PHI | $14.6 ($5.8 per IP)

Previous 79 starts: 3.13 ERA, .274 BABIP, 78.4% LOB. Last year’s 32 starts: 4.63 ERA, .308 BABIP, 66.8% LOB. Screams of bad luck but also too zone-friendly in 2021. Release extension, historically at 6.4 ft, increased to 6.9 ft in 2020 and stayed at 6.8 ft in 2021. Higher release point in 2021 (bad year) than in 2020 (bad) despite similar extension. ERA estimators suggest skills plenty intact, but there are clear mechanical differences here, perhaps for the worse. 190 IP, 3.60 ERA (29% K | 7% BB | .380 wOBAcon)

Dylan Cease | CHW | $6.3 (-$0.9 per IP)

Big K’s, big BBs. It can work, but it’s a tightrope walk. Big FF, elite SL. Stuff might be strong enough to offset detriment of poor command that might allow hard contact (think pre-2021 Robbie Ray). Certain to be a sleeper darling. Should be perceived as high-variance (again, think old Ray). 160 IP, 4.10 ERA (29% K | 10% BB | .390 wOBAcon)

Freddy Peralta | MIL | $16.3 ($10.3 per IP)

I admit I bought “two-pitch” fearmongering. Doesn’t matter: Peralta now four-pitch, headlined by one of MLB’s best FFs. New SL notched 21% SwStr and boasts great comps; it began to displace CU—unique, more slurvy—which also boasted strong comps. New CH used least but might be best of three secondaries, which says a lot. Command will hold him back. I expect 2.81 ERA will drive up ADP, and yet (without looking) I wonder if it’s high enough. 160 IP, 3.20 ERA (33% K | 10% BB | .360 wOBAcon)

Glenn Otto | TEX | $3.2 total ($1.0 per IP)

One of 2021’s pop-up minor-league arms (16% SwStr), shipped to TEX at deadline. Carried by SL with elite comps (Clevinger, Ottavino, Manoah, McHugh). Painfully bad FF thrown 50%. Decent KC that echoes distantly of Bieber. Easiest fix is more SL, fewer FF. Hard contact will remain a wart, but count on less of it. 130 IP, 4.00 ERA (27% K | 7% BB | .390 wOBAcon)

Ian Anderson | ATL | $2.4 (-$3.6 per IP)

Consistently double-digit BB% throughout minors into MLB debut a concern. Never ran low BABIPs in minors but could be beneficiary of better defense. Solidly below-average FF comps, which conflicts with sparkling outcomes thus far. CH as excellent as advertised, echoes of Giolito/Wacha. Unique CU, inhabits CU-KC-SL Venn Diagram with interesting but volatile comps. Secondaries are MLB-caliber, but FF casts shadows; difference between 3.58 ERA and 4.38 SIERA hinges on it not being a mirage. 150 IP, 4.00 ERA (24% K | 10% BB | .360 wOBAcon)

Joe Ryan | MIN | $6.2 ($4.6 per IP)

Another “young” Twin with eye-popping minor league numbers. Mostly weak comps on FF despite FanGraphs’ 60-grade on it; could make or break him, especially at whopping two-thirds usage. SL might be a FC (per scouting report) but comps more closely to SLs; either way, it gets whiffs. CH not strong but echoes of Hendricks/Davies/Nolaesque contact suppression. Overall, nice package with nice track record. 60 IP, 4.60 ERA (14% K | 5% BB | .360 wOBAcon)

John Means | BAL | $5.2 ($1.6 per IP)

Modern-day Marco Estrada induces more PUs than anyone, resulting in MLB-low .245 BABIP since start of 2019. Elevated fastball gets whiffs plus endless free outs; CH and SL carried their weight in 2021 (although could erode slightly). Some projections will underrate outlier contact quality suppression, as projection systems tend to do. Re: ADP: Don’t understand the bear market here. And after the expansion of Camden’s left field? Let’s go. 160 IP, 3.80 ERA (22% K | 5% BB | .360 wOBAcon)

Josiah Gray | WAS | $6.7 ($4.3 per IP)

Dominated minors since pro debut and made mincemeat of AAA hitters. Baker’s dozen of mediocre starts undersells talent, although FF, thrown 50%+, stands out as weak link. CU, SL boast 20%+ SwStr and both comp to other good SLs (the CU is a slurve). Double-digit BB% troubling but not historically an issue. Wouldn’t be the first good pitcher with bad fastball but plus secondaries. 140 IP, 3.70 ERA (27% K | 7% BB | .370 wOBAcon)

Logan Gilbert | SEA | $4.1 ($1.4 per IP)

Glasnow-esque FF, above-average SL. At less than 10% each: knee-buckling CH, work-in-progress KC. Call-up darling and obvious sleeper candidate soured by run of bad starts, finishing 2021 with 4.68 ERA. Fantasy players aren’t stupid, but Gilbert has fallen in favor behind Manoah/McClanahan. Would like to see him use CH much more. 3.87 SIERA points to better luck-adjusted outcomes; with optimal usage, ceiling could be much higher. 140 IP, 3.80 ERA (24% K | 7% BB | .360 wOBAcon)

Luis Garcia | HOU | $7.6 ($2.9 per IP)

FC recorded highest SwStr% (23.4%) of any FC thrown 500+ times in a season in last three years. It comps more closely to SLs with so-so SwStr%, while SL bears some strong CU comps, which, if nothing else, points to beneficially atypical arsenal. CH reminisces of MLB’s modern elite CHs (Hendricks, Greinke, Davies, etc.). FC will come down to earth, but repertoire looks pretty fantastic. Depends on ADP but I’ll likely target him heavily regardless. 160 IP, 3.70 ERA (25% K | 7% BB | .360 wOBAcon)

Pablo López | MIA | $3.8 ($4.6 per IP)

Arsenal of CH-FF-FC-SI. Replicates release point, spin axis, velo (88 to 94 mph) with widely varied movement patterns. Synthesis of traits—four pitches nearly identical out-of-hand but wildly different movements/locations—makes sense why López succeeds. New FC (which has killed ball off bat), more CH (big SwStr%), less FF and CU helped fuel post-2019 breakout. Coming away really impressed, even if ceiling is not sky-high due to lack of wipeout secondary. Feels high-floor. Concerning history of shoulder injuries curbs enthusiasm re: volume. 120 IP, 3.60 ERA (25% K | 6% BB | .360 wOBAcon)

Patrick Sandoval | LAA | $8.7 ($5.8 per IP)

(I approach most blurbs with an idea of how I’ll feel. Sandoval knocked me on my ass.) Elite CH/SL combo. Displaced some FF usage with SI that boasts same velo and spin axis but opposing SSW movement. Both fastballs stymied hard contact. Honestly, with CH-first approach, heavy GB slant, big whiffs, lukewarm command—a budding (peak) Luis Castillo. Almost certainly will be all in. 140 IP, 3.50 ERA (29% K | 9% BB | .360 wOBAcon) (P.S. I made a bold prediction about Sandoval.)

Shane Baz | TBR | $10.5 ($9.0 per IP)

Absolutely punished high-minors hitters in 2021. Works exclusively from stretch, which cleaned up delivery and has magically fixed his command, changing his trajectory from high-leverage relief to, finally, mid-rotation SP (or higher). Fastball comps include Cole, Wheeler, deGrom. SL and CU legit weapons. CH will likely be disposed of eventually. Comps are sparkling for FF-SL-CU combo and point to good outcomes both deserved and sustainable. Best of all, deserved BB%, even in just 13 IP, was just 5.4%. I want Baz over McClanahan. 140 IP, 3.40 ERA (30% K | 7% BB | .370 wOBAcon) (Damn shame he’ll have surgery. We’ll reevaluate the McClanahan statement on a per-inning basis at year’s end.)

Triston McKenzie | CLE | $6.2 ($4.5 per IP)

Jekyll: 8+ walks per 9 IP in first 10 starts before injury. Hyde: 2.2 BB/9 in last 14 starts after IL return, including 8-start stretch (50.1 IP) with just 6 BB alongside 52 K and 2.86 ERA (3.52 xFIP). Graduated top of class from Robbie Ray School of Just Throw Strikes, Damn It. Gets into trouble working up in zone but worth it for BABIP-suppressing PUs. Fantastic glimpse of top-prospect upside that briefly eluded him. Smart drafters will know to look past 4.95 ERA. 140 IP, 3.70 ERA (26% K | 6% BB | .370 wOBAcon)

Tyler Mahle | CIN | $7.7 ($1.1 per IP)

Was skeptical of 2020 breakout despite addition of SL. In my defense, its effectiveness cratered as SwStr% plunged. Truth probably somewhere between 2020 and 2021. FS bounced back—one of MLB’s better pitches—but unclear if he can command it. In fact, unclear if he has command at all. Feels like… a glorified Caleb Smith. Despite evidence, I remain wary, especially while he calls Great American Ball Park home. 170 IP, 3.90 ERA (26% K | 8% BB | .370 wOBAcon)

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Glossary (all terms may not have been used)

FF four-seamer
SI sinker (includes two-seamers)
FC cutter
CH change-up
SL slider
CU curve (KC knuckle-curve)
FS splitter
GB ground ball
LD line drive
FB fly ball
PU pop-up
IP innings pitched
K% strikeout rate
BB% walk rate
SwStr% swinging strike rate (swinging strikes ÷ all pitches)
LOB% left-on-base percentage (“strand rate”)
CSW called strikes plus whiffs ([called strikes + swinging strikes] ÷ all pitches)
BABIP batting average on balls in play
EV exit velocity
LA launch angle
wOBAcon weighted on-base average on contact (value of batted ball outcomes)
xwOBAcon expected wOBAcon (a measure of contact quality)
SSW seam-shifted wake
ADP average draft position
NFBC National Fantasy Baseball Championship, a high-stakes fantasy baseball series
DC Draft Champions (draft-and-hold league: 15 teams, 50 roster spots, no adds/drops)
TJS Tommy John surgery

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If you made it this far, and you feel so inclined: Leave one (1) starting pitcher’s name in the comments. I’ll pick 10 or 15 at semi-random and publish a follow-up post. (Don’t name more than one—I’ll ignore your comment. Sorry! Not trying to be a meanie. Someone has to set some rules around here.)