2021 Pod vs Steamer — HR Downside, A Review

Yesterday, I reviewed my Pod vs Steamer home run upside list results. Today, let’s now review my Pod vs Steamer home run downside list. As a reminder, the comparisons are AB/HR ratio and the table displays the implied home run totals over 600 at-bats. So the actual HR column isn’t necessarily what the player hit, but what his 600 at-bat pace actually was in order to truly compare home run rate projections without playing time factoring in.

Overall, the Pod Projections “won” by a slim margin, four closer forecasts to three for Steamer. As is often the case with these lists, there were lots of small samples sizes here, making the results pretty meaningless. Only two of the seven hitters recorded more than 315 at-bats! Of those two full-timers, each system was closer on one of them.

Unsurprisingly, we were both well off on Khris Davis. His power first began to slide in 2019 and then over a tiny sample in 2020, he suddenly became a weak slap hitter. It was anyone’s guess whether the 33-year-old would rebound back to his 2019 level or even his 2015-2019 levels. He was over 30 years old, but not yet at the age where you feel like this is the end of the line. Well, we know what happened now, even though 102 at-bats is hardly the sample to definitively proclaim he’s done.

Incredible, Shogo Akiyama went another 162 at-bats without homering. He now has 317 MLB at-bats and owns a .050 ISO. That’s really hard to do! It seemed like Steamer was weighing Akiyama’s NPB record a bit more heavily than I was, which was defendable given that his MLB record consisted of just 155 at-bats. But he showed absolutely nothing to suggest much better power was on its way, which is why I was so much more pessimistic.

Ryan Jeffers beat both of our projections, which is pretty amazing for a guy who skipped Triple-A, barely played at Double-A, and never posted a HR/FB rate above the mid-teens in the minors. Clearly, something must have clicked here that minor league stats couldn’t foresee.

Duh, we both massively missed on Cody Bellinger, who was one of this season’s biggest disappointments, even after his disappointing 2020. I managed to be far less optimistic because of his projected strikeout rate. In my original writeup, I noted that my xK% equation suggested he was lucky in both 2019 and 2020 when he posted mid-teen marks, so my strikeout rate projection was much more bearish than Steamer’s, which was the lowest of all the systems. Sure enough, Bellinger’s strikeout rate spiked back up to a career worst mark. That wasn’t the only reason he disappointed though, as his HR/FB rate also plummeted to single digits for the first time. I have no idea what led to this disaster of a season, but at age 26 now and with his history, it would be silly to think a rebound wasn’t in the cards.

Man, what Alejandro Kirk has done with the bat is impressive. He debuted in the Majors in 2020 having never played above High-A, so I was skeptical he would continue to show such power given that he managed just a 6% HR/FB rate at the level in 2019. His HR/FB rate did fall to the mid-teens this year, but he also improved his strikeout rate and his FB% surged, both boosting his home run total.

I thought I was the crazy one for not projecting Juan Soto more optimistically, as his 2020 season with a 36.1% HR/FB rate had everyone rushing to up their 2021 power forecast. I just couldn’t do it, especially since that mark came in just 154 at-bats, which was an even smaller sample than the other small samples from batters who played a full season in 2020. Soto was fantastic again, of course, but his HR/FB rate fell right back down to his 2018-2019 levels and he continues to hit too many grounders for a guy with so much power. He’ll hit 40 homers at some point, if he could pair his 2019 FB% with his 2020-2021 strikeout rates and won’t even require a 30%+ HR/FB rate.

Whoops, I was off on Rafael Devers! According to my original writeup, it was all about the strikeout rate, as I projected a mark worse than every other projection system. More strikeouts = fewer balls in play = fewer home runs. Devers ended up dramatically improving his strikeout rate off his career worst mark in 2020 and posting the second best mark of his career. His FB% also jumped to the second highest mark of his career, while his HR/FB rate notched a new career high for the third straight season. I was never on the Devers bandwagon, and I’m highly unlikely to draft him in 2022, but I’m guessing I’ll no longer be a bear here.