Jeurys Familia has had his ups and downs this season, but he hit a new low on Wednesday when he did not retire any of the four batters he faced in the Mets’ 5-3 loss to the Pirates. He began the top of the ninth inning with a 3-1 lead, and he allowed three straight singles. Familia stayed in to face Jordy Mercer with the bases loaded, but a four-pitch walk cut the lead to a run and ended his night. He was relieved by Anthony Swarzak, who did him no favors by allowing David Freese‘s two-RBI single and Josh Bell’s sacrifice fly.

While this most recent outing was particularly bad for Familia, he had been struggling on and off for a month and a half. Over a span of 15.2 inning entering Wednesday’s game, Famila had compiled a 3.45 ERA and 1.72 WHIP, and a .408 BABIP rate was key to the bloating of his ratios. Going back to May 13, Familia has allowed hard contact at a 34.0 percent rate, but that slightly-elevated rate hardly seems to be cause for an astronomical BABIP. According to Baseball Savant, there is reason to be skeptical — and hopeful — about Familia’s recent trend. While he has allowed batters to hit .353 against him over his last 15 appearances, his opponents’ collective xBA is just .277 over that period.
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A week ago, I listed and discussed eight starting pitchers who have enjoyed the biggest jumps in fastball velocity. As the weather warms, velocity rises on average, so we would expect the typical starter to post an average velocity higher in June than May. But that isn’t the case for everyone, of course. So let’s discuss six whose fastball velocity is actually down from May. It’s not an automatic red flag or sign of injury, but it’s something to monitor as it could lead to performance decline.

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We’re about to flip the calendar to July and many of us have teams that are floundering in the middle-to-low end of the standings. If there’s any hope to contend, not only will your current players have to turn it around, but you’re going to need some gems to emerge either off the wire or via trade. Acquiring elite assets will cost elite assets and if you had those, you wouldn’t be in this position in the first place so it’s time to take some gambles. Here’s a list of affordable assets who could perform well beyond their cost based on previous performance, skills, and/or improved health.

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We’re changing it up a little this week, formerly looking at the collection of starting pitchers owned in under 15% of leagues (consensus Yahoo/ESPN ownership from Fantasy pros) and moving toward a 30% threshold, with a few extra sub 10% discount options at the end, pointing out the options to consider if you need an extra arm or two at the end of your staff.

Let’s highlight my ten favorite starting pitcher options that may be available on your waiver wires, roughly ordered from top to bottom:

Under 30% Owned

Nick Kingham (Pittsburgh Pirates) – With Chad Kuhl leaving Tuesday’s game with forearm discomfort, it’s possible Kuhl heads to the DL for a significant amount of time, with Kingham taking his place as soon as this weekend. Kingham’s skill set speaks to a Top 60 starter if not higher with excellent fastball command and a swing-and-miss heavy slider. It’s a 1-2 punch that makes him 12-team relevant regardless of the rest of his arsenal and with a secure role in the rotation, Kingham could be in for a fantastic second half.

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I’ve updated my hitter prospect rankings (any name ideas?) based on age, level, position, and production with some regression baked in to handle small samples (link to last pitcher rankings). Besides the top-75 list, I’ve included some additional information on three lesser-known players.

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Entering the Giants’ Tuesday night game against the Rockies, it had been one week since Sam Dyson had recorded his one-and-only save since Hunter Strickland was placed on the DL. Given that he had a couple of shaky outings in the interim and that Bruce Bochy called on Will Smith to pitch the bottom of the ninth inning in a tie game with the Padres on Sunday, one had to wonder if Dyson was still the Giants’ primary closer.

Whatever worries Dyson — or his fantasy owners — may have had were somewhat assuaged in Tuesday’s 3-2 win. Dyson pitched a scoreless ninth inning for his third save of the season, though there were some nail-biting moments. He gave up a leadoff double to Tom Murphy and issued a one-out walk to pinch hitter Chris Iannetta. Dyson appeared to get out of the inning on a DJ LeMahieu double play ball, but the Rockies challenged the call, which was ultimately upheld.
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The Roto Riteup loves positional flexibility.

Tuesday Matinee:

(•_•)
<) )╯PITCHER
/ \

\(•_•)
( (> FIRST
/ \

(•_•)
<) )> BASING
/ \ pic.twitter.com/lPKfhgXXFM

— Cut4 (@Cut4) June 26, 2018

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Over the last few seasons, I have become a more aggressive pitch-and-ditcher. While I have not reached the point of taking action — either adding or dropping — on the basis of a single start, I have come to realize that a new direction taken by a pitcher in back-to-back starts often goads me into considering a move.

Two starts don’t quite represent a trend, but if you wait for a pitcher to show clear signs of trending in a new direction, you usually lose an opportunity to add pitchers who are moving in a positive direction. You may also be unnecessarily saddling yourself with bad starts from a slumping pitcher in the name of patience.
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Brad Keller is a 22-year old rookie for the Kansas City Royals, who they acquired from the Cincinnati Reds after they Rule 5 drafted him off Arizona last winter. He’s in the majors after a Double-A season that saw him post a 4.68 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, and 9% K-BB rate over 131 innings. He made the Hard-Throwing Relievers section of Eric Longenhagen’s KC prospects list. He spent the first two months of the season in that role, leaning on a 95 mph sinker to post a 2.01 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in 22 innings, but just a 7% K-BB rate.

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• Edubray Ramos was placed on the DL and in a corresponding move the Phillies recalled Hector Neris from AAA. Hector Neris threw two innings in the minors, striking out two while issuing a walk. While we can’t clean much from that performance he pitched better in the majors than his ERA would suggest with a 2.96 SIERA not matching his 5.79 ERA. Neris pitched in the 7th inning last night, striking out two batters in a perfect inning. Although he won’t lead the saves committee in Philly, I put him back on the grid with Seranthony Dominguez and Tommy Hunter ahead of him. As you know, it’s hard to tell how Kapler will run the bullpen on any given day but Neris should have a chance to make some noise again.

• When Kelvin Herrera was hurt I went through almost every reliever in Kansas City except Wily Peralta. So naturally Peralta gets the save chance last night, getting his first save and striking out two in the process. I’m going to put Peralta in the lead for saves with Kevin McCarthy next in line as he pitched a perfect 8th. As for the last slot, it’s between Tim Hill and Brandon Maurer but for now I will keep Hill on the grid, as a lefty he might see high leverage innings against lefty heavy lineups. While it looks like Peralta could run away with the job if he pitches well, he’s not likely to rack up a ton of saves on the Royals. I would pick him up if you need saves, but I wouldn’t consider the category safe because you have Peralta now.

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