I promised an update to the May rankings and it’s here! When ranking 125+ players (130 last time, down to 125 here), I obviously don’t have up-to-minute stats and performance memorized on everyone so while I felt pretty good about the groupings everyone was in, there were some individual rankings that needed work. I also added another tier at the top for the stone cold fantasy aces. It’s a tight group, but it gets them separation from the must-starts because I think people still bug out when seeing Chris Sale and Tyson Ross in the same tier and I understand that.

I do think the Must-Start tier is important, though, because one of the unintended consequences of the information age for fantasy baseball is the overwhelming desire to see every start as actionable. Some guys you just have to start through the ebbs and flows of a season, even after a few clunky starts. Not every bad start is the beginning of the end for a pitcher. Conversely, every gem from some 4th or 5th starter isn’t the emergence of a new stud.

I can’t imagine it’d really be possible to do, but I’d love to see a study on team ERAs in fantasy pre- and post-internet. I’m sure pre-internet saw established guys given a longer leash as there were often weeks in between updates (the first fantasy league I was ever in started in 1989 and ran stats every other week) and similar time periods between pickups. Anyway, here’s the update! As always, heed the tier over the # ranking and let me know what you think in the comments down below!

• March rankings
• Early-May rankings

The tiers are as follows:

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Each week through the season, I’ll be looking at the collection of starting pitchers owned in under 15% of leagues (consensus Yahoo/ESPN ownership from Fantasy pros) and pointing out the options to consider if you need an extra arm or two at the end of your staff.

It’s been another week of Fantasy Baseball, and the waiver wire has shifted. Let’s highlight my ten favorites, roughly ordered from top to bottom:

Daniel Mengden (Oakland Athletics) – It’s far from the big upside plays that are already above 15% owned, but if you’re looking for some stability, maybe consider the pitcher who just cruised through a pair of starts against the Astros and Red Sox. He’s throwing his curveball for strikes while getting outs with his heater and those in need of preserving ratios should consider Mengden as he gets a comfortable schedule of Jays, Diamondbacks, Rays, Rangers, and Royals next.

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With our auction calculator update, I going to look at three top-rated batters.

Ozzie Albies

In my recent Launch Angle podcast, I had a tough time deciding if I’d draft Ozzie Albies or Jose Altuve in a new 2018 league. I decided I’d go with Altuve but being that I had to think about it, I needed to see if I buy Albies’s ascension into a possible first or second round talent.

Others and myself had an idea Albies was going to be good but just not hit for so much power. If someone would have told me to predict six and 13 for Albies’s home runs and stolen base totals, I would have swapped them. Last year, he had 15 HR and 29 SB. The season before, it was 6 HR and 30 SB. I figured the speed was safe (and it is) but his power may come later. I was right, he isn’t hitting for more power, he’s utilizing his it better.

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The Robinson Cano suspension will be a big loss for the Mariners and for fantasy owners. Dee Gordon’s imminent move back to second base should at least give the Mariners a defensive upgrade, and it gives Gordon’s keeper league owners another year of second-base eligibility.

Understandably, the question of who replaces Gordon in center field has received far less attention than the loss of Cano has. Scott Servais‘ plan is to use Guillermo Heredia as Gordon’s primary replacement, and that’s a development that should not be ignored by fantasy owners, at least in deeper leagues. He headlines this week’s list of five hitters who are widely available on all of the major sites.
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Having morosely completed our efforts to determine the over-under on A.J. Pollock’s rest-of-season plate appearances—100, and we’ll take the under—we attempt to identify starting pitchers whose fantasy-relevant stats belie their actual performance so far this season. We think that pitchers who aren’t being hit hard, but have high BABIPs and home-run-to-fly-ball ratios, have been unlucky rather than bad, and that their luck will change. Those are the guys you might want to trade for. And we think that the guys who are getting hit hard but have low BABIPs and HR/FB% have been lucky. Those are the guys you might want to unload while the unloading is good. Read the rest of this entry »

Growing up, I threw a lot of balls in the dirt. So I became quite skilled at teaching my catchers how to smother the ball. Bartolo Colon uses a different approach to smother the ball.

He wound up tossing 7.2 innings of four hit, no walk, shutout ball. I’m guessing his belly is interesting colors today…

AGENDA

1. TDG Invitational
2. Weather Reports
3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
4. SaberSim Says…
5. SaberSim Under the Hood

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After the Phillies announced there would be a committee approach to the ninth inning, fantasy owners should worry. Gabe Kapler’s still plying his trade as a first year manager armed with an emerging bullpen. Hector Neris started the year in the traditional closer role, but lost the role following a blown save last Friday. Edubray Ramos recorded his first save on Sunday yet no clarity arose. On Wednesday, Philadelphia started with Ramos in the top of the ninth in a save situation and he responded by striking out both hitters he faced on six pitches, both being right-handed batters. Then, they brought in Neris to pitch to Chris Davis, a left-handed slugger, who grounded out to second base securing the win. For the Phillies, the win will be the important factor, not preventing Ramos or Neris from notching a save. This will be important to remember when trying to chase saves in this bullpen going forward, especially given Ramos has limited left-handed hitters to a .200 batting average against this year compared .184 for Neris. No matter how the team spins the ninth, it’s going to be match-up based which will mean headaches for the saves chasers looking at this bullpen. All being told, it may be easier to avoid until clarity arises.

One day removed from suggesting a fluid bullpen, Atlanta provided Arodys Vizcaino with a redemption save chance last night. Vizcaino responded with his first clean save of the season. It’s Vizcaino’s eighth save and even though he has his warts, he’s closed out 20 of 23 save chances dating back to July 30th of last year. Of course, overlooking his 10 walks in 20.2 innings of work this year would be shortsighted, but dropping him due to the latest committee warning would be as well. A.J. Minter garnered the win in relief working one inning giving up a hit and striking out one. Many will keep tabs on Dan Winkler, and rightly so, due to his minuscule 0.98 ERA and 0.65 WHIP with 27 strikeouts versus 67 total batters faced (40.3 strikeout percentage) in 18.1 innings. With Vizcaino working the last two games, perhaps Winkler will get an audition on Thursday? Read the rest of this entry »

Earlier this week, I looked at Statcast’s expected metrics to identify hitters who may improve or decline from their current ISO marks. Today, let’s talk pitchers. I’m simply going to sort the Expected Stats leaderboard by difference between wOBA and xwOBA and discuss the fantasy relevant starting pitchers with the biggest negative gaps between wOBA and xwOBA (higher wOBA than xwOBA). Remember that xwOBA fails to account for home ballpark, defensive support, quality and opposition, and perhaps other factors I’m not able to come up with at the moment. It’s why I stick to the extremes, as even with all factors accounted for, it’s highly likely these guys are still due for the same directional move in wOBA, though perhaps not to the same degree.

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This is further proof that I have the body to play professional baseball:

?belly belly belly belly rockin’ everywhere? pic.twitter.com/NCOOhNLLq6

— Cut4 (@Cut4) May 17, 2018

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Note: This post was scheduled for the early morning, but didn’t go through. If I do this again it the future, it will post in the morning. 

A look at the most interesting pitching performances from last night and what I’m looking forward to on Wednesday’s slate.

About Last Night

Some quick thoughts on the most interesting starts of yesterday:

Jordan Lyles (7.3 IP/0 ER) was perfect for 22 outs before a Trevor Story base hit. A walk to Pat Valaika immediately after ended his excellent day. It was Lyles’ second strong start since joining the rotation, but his big outing further underscores the issues against righties for the Rockies offense. Their 64 wRC+ versus righties is dead last in the league and their 25% strikeout rate is fifth highest. As for Lyles, he is throwing 94 mph (a career-high) and his curveball is working as well as ever. He was second to only Thor with 16 swinging strikes on Tuesday. He’s got the Dodgers and Nationals both on the road in a two-start setup next week. Let’s give him a shot.

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