We’re not quite a quarter of the way through the season—enough for most owners to figure out what they’ve got and what they need, but too early to pack it in. And, as usual, that makes for some fairly interesting trade opportunities. Of course, it also makes for some preposterous trade offers. Our Trumpian desire for peace and comity among owners prevents us from telling you about the most egregious ones we’ve received so far, but that shouldn’t stop you from sharing about yours in the Comments section if you’re so inclined.

Nonetheless, the melancholy fact is that even the most reasonable, temperate, and unassuming of your adversaries are trying to get the better of you in a deal. True, they probably need what you’ve got. But sometimes, you and/or they don’t have what you and/or they appear to have. So, as a public service, we’re identifying guys who, as measured by BABIP, HR/FB%, and Hard-Hit Percentage, have been unlucky and can be expected to improve, or, in the case of one player, lucky and likely to decline. And since Cheap Players R Us, we’re tossing in a guy who might actually be available on your league’s waiver wire, though you won’t want him unless something bad has befallen or befalls your regular at the position. Read the rest of this entry »

I was planning to write a compelling case for joining us on FantasyDraft, but I’m running way behind today. Here is a clip from the internet instead.

AGENDA

1. TDG Invitational
2. Weather Reports
3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
4. SaberSim Says…
5. Mazwow

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Anytime news breaks regarding an injury or the need for a change at closer, the speculation ensues. With Toronto’s Roberto Osuna placed on administrative leave by baseball, adding the correct Blue Jay reliever means a chance at procuring saves. Some focused on Seung-Hwan Oh who owns closing experience, but he pitched the sixth inning with his team down by one. Others took a chance on John Axford, he’s been pitching very well of late with seven straight scoreless outings over 9.1 innings with eight strikeouts and only one walk. Alas, he worked the seventh inning and his ability to work more than one inning could keep him out of the save mix going forward unless he records a “Hader”.

So, it boiled down to Ryan Tepera or Tyler Clippard. Manager John Gibbons opted for the closer experience with Tepera keeping his role in the eighth inning. Tepera garnered the win giving up a walk with a strikeout after Toronto rallied for four runs in the bottom of the frame. Then, Tyler Clippard entered for his first save of the year giving up a hit with two strikeouts. Over his last six appearances, Clippard’s registered three holds, a win and a save allowing four hits, an unearned run and a walk with 10 strikeouts. Although regression will happen with Clippard, it’s his role to lose with Toronto until more clarity emerges with Osuna’s pending suspension.

It’s hard to believe, but Craig Kimbrel’s never recorded a save requiring him to get more than four outs. He tried again to make history last night, but not only blew the save, his outing led to a Red Sox loss. Many will question his entering the game so soon, but with it on the line, Alex Cora made the right move, it just did not work out. Kimbrel entered with runners on first and third with one out giving up a triple to Brett Gardner to turn the tide then Aaron Judge hit a home run to center before Kimbrel retired the last two by strikeouts to end the inning. In spite of the blown save, Kimbrel’s been trending in the right direction of late. Speaking of which, Aroldis Chapman closed the door notching his ninth save giving up a hit and striking out three working on back-to-back days. Same goes for Chad Green, so if a save chance presents itself in the Bronx tonight, plan on David Robertson to get the opportunity.  Read the rest of this entry »

The Roto Riteup reminds you to always put your best foot forward…..

Bend the knee. pic.twitter.com/ws2QQuBJxt

— MLB (@MLB) May 10, 2018

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For the vast majority of the season, I completely ignore ERA, instead relying on SIERA for rest of season projection purposes. While this method is far better than looking solely at ERA, what about the pitchers you expected to be good, but have been terrible, with weak skills to match? These are the guys whose SIERA confirms they have pitched poorly, but that doesn’t necessarily mean they will continue posting such weak skills. So let’s discuss three starters we expected better from, but whose current skills don’t provide much hope for a rebound.

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5/9/18

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 19, the best baseball strategy game ever made – available NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms! Go to ootpdevelopments.com to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER19!

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• @sporer – Host
• @justinmasonfwfb – Producer/Co-Host
• @jasoncollette – Co-Host

GET THE SLEEPER & THE BUST T-SHIRT FROM ROTOWEAR!

The All-Struggle Bus Team

• Gary Sanchez
• Anthony Rizzo
• Jose Altuve (doesn’t really fit the team name, but you’ll hear why I included him)
• Scott Kingery
• Matt Carpenter

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Rarely is OPS (on-base percentage plus slugging percentage) a fantasy stat. It’s off many people’s radar but it’s widely available and closely mimics a position player’s overall hitting talent. While other stats (e.g. wOBA and wRC+) also give a hitter an overall value, these stats aren’t available at every website. Most sites have their own unique blend but OPS is commonly available. Because of this availability, I’ve been using it as a baseline in recent articles on adjusting projections based on prospect pedigree and when hitters get platooned ($$). Now, it’s time to use OPS to help predict the individual categories.

The process I used for this study was to simply see how much various stats changed when OPS changed a certain amount. For rate stats (e.g. batting average) the conversion is straightforward. For counting categories, I put the stats on a per 600 plate appearance scale. Additionally, I only compared data from 2015 to 2017 during the current “juiced” ball era. I know the process is not close to being 100% precise and that is fine. I’m just trying to create general adjustments and can look to hone the process later. I’m putting in 20% effort to get 80% of the answer.

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I’ve long believed that ottoneu owners should essentially ignore the league standings through the first month of the baseball season, but that doesn’t mean teams should be resting on their laurels. The first couple months of the season are the best times to pounce on unexpected breakouts, and even if 75% of your pickups end up being duds the one or two studs you might find make the hunt fruitful. Let’s take a look at the players ottoneu teams are picking up and dropping most frequently over the past week:

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Roberto Osuna was arrested in Toronto on Tuesday morning and charged with assault, and shortly thereafter, the Commissioner’s Office placed him on administrative leave. Osuna is scheduled for a June 18 court date, and meanwhile, Major League Baseball will be conducting its own investigation under the joint MLB-MLBPA Domestic Violence Policy.

With James Paxton tossing a no-hitter against the Blue Jays on Tuesday night, Toronto had no need for a closer. John Gibbons put the team’s closer situation in its proper perspective, given the seriousness of the charges against Osuna; he has yet to indicate who might fill the ninth-inning role. General manager Ross Atkins stated that Osuna could be out longer or shorter than the default seven-day leave period for an investigation, depending on how the investigation progresses. During that time, Ryan Tepera and/or Seung Hwan Oh would presumably be called upon in save situations.
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Turn out for the Invitational has been below my expectations. If you previously participated in Invitationals and have opted not to transition with us to FantasyDraft, could you leave me some feedback? Comments, email, Twitter DM – whatever works for you. I’m trying to understand how to make this better for everyone.

AGENDA

1. TDG Invitational
2. Weather Reports
3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
4. SaberSim Says…
5. No No No

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