The Daily Grind: Not-So-Thin Thursday

I was planning to write a compelling case for joining us on FantasyDraft, but I’m running way behind today. Here is a clip from the internet instead.

AGENDA

1. TDG Invitational
2. Weather Reports
3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
4. SaberSim Says…
5. Mazwow

1. The Daily Grind Invitational

Sawyer77 crushed us yesterday by combining Julio Teheran, Nick Pivetta, Lucas Duda, Teoscar Hernandez, and Aaron Judge. Well played sir, well played. Leaderboard. The contest had a 12 entry overlay which means that every $2 entry had an expected value of $2.86. Where you at?

I tried to tell FantasyDraft to make the contest smaller for Thin Thursday. They kept it at 40 entries. Come enjoy another overlay on FantasyDraft.

If you have not signed up for FantasyDraft, please use this referral link for tracking purposes. If I understand properly, by using the referral, you will receive a 10 percent return on any rakes you pay.

2. Weather Reports

New York may see some in-game storms. The postponenessish of said storms appears to be minimal. Or in real english, I doubt there will be more than a delay.

3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse

Main Slate: We’re getting a not insubstantial nine game slate tonight. This is my kind of jam. It’s a deep collection of pitchers with no standout arms.  J.A. Happ ($21,100) is the top priced arm, but he’s probably not my pick for the top projection. Instead, he’s more of a high floor option who just so happens to occasionally provide bonus value via long outings. You may notice a high strikeout rate this year. I see absolutely no reason for the uptick. Regression inbound.

Walker Buehler is next on the list. No thank you. I’m very impressed with his future potential, but we’re looking at a guy who probably pitches fewer than six innings with a modest strikeout rate. I’m not keen to drop $20,600.

Zack Greinke ($19,900) would be the top dog if not for a matchup against the Nationals. Hell, he’s still probably top dog. Like Happ, you’re looking at more of a high floor profile with rare complete game upside.

Miles Mikolas ($19,400) is a juicy target versus the strikeout prone Padres at Petco Park. Ditto Mike Foltynewicz ($18,700) visiting a lousy Marlins team. Mikolas has what should be an auto-win while Folty will need to “outduel” Caleb Smith ($14,400). Smith has some positive peripherals.

Jose Berrios ($15,400) is coming off three poor outings. That’s kinda who he is at point. His ceiling is up there with the best in the slate. Or you might consider a contrarian Angels stack.

A bunch of other guys are viable too. They won’t be listed below.

Stack Targets: Chris Tillman, Jordan Lyles, Jhoulys Chacin, Mike Leake, German Marquez

We have a Coors Field game, a Tillman game, and a couple others to exploit. I keep going back and forth on Leake. One of these days, we’re going to look back and realize he’s on a five game hot streak. Perhaps this is a chance to jump in on the ground floor against an iffy Blue Jays lineup.

4. SaberSim Says…

I was very interested to see who The Sim liked today. Mikolas (yes!), Greinke (yes!), Smith (uh?), Buehler, and Garrett Richards were the preferred arms. I guess I can see Smith as a GPP play. Scrubs plus Smith and Eduardo Rodriguez are the values.

Bats include Charlie Blackmon, Nolan Arenado, Ryan Braun, Mookie Betts, and Lorenzo Cain. Guess which team is visiting Coors Field? Value hawks will want to try Manny Pina, Chris Davis, Jon Jay, Derek Dietrich, and Lucas Duda.

5. Mazwow!

Nomar Mazara may have arrived.

I’m sure you saw this. The LOLMets live.

A few strikeouts.