In case you were wondering, Brett Gardner does not mess around when it comes to recycling.
Live look-in at @Yankees Twitter. pic.twitter.com/enR2jdWlfU
— Cut4 (@Cut4) April 11, 2018
Fastball velocity changes may be getting beat to death but they are one of the few stats in which stabilize early in the offseason. I’ve created a couple tools which I use during the season to help find which pitchers to evaluate further using velocity. I have one which grades fastballs and a new pitcher injury finder.
Fastball Grades
This tool simply gives an ERA and 20-80 grade to a fastball based on its projected results from its velocity and spin. The velocity component is simple to understand. It’s hard to hit fast flying small objects. It’s even harder to hit faster flying small objects. Understanding the spin component is a little tougher.
The Nick Senzel edition of Brad Johnson Present Chatting About Baseball is complete. See transcript.
| 3:57 |
: Let’s get rolling in a minute or two. I’ll be off on twitter to scrape some competition for ya.
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| 3:58 |
: I have Alex Reyes, Dinelson Lamet and Greg Bird on the DL but only two DL spots so one of them is taking up a bench spot. Drop one of them for Albers in a 12-team 5×5 roto league? My closers are Iglesias, Kela and Soria right now.
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| 3:59 |
: Could drop Lamet. I don’t think you have to go out of your way for another part time closer.
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| 3:59 |
: I’d probably save that move for a more meaningful addition
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| 3:59 |
: You’re a daily guy, right? How do you decide when to pay up for a top pitcher instead of running with a cheaper guy? I usually go for the cheapest starter that I’m comfortable with in order to get as many top bats into the lineup as possible, but on nights like last night I get burnt when Scherzer and Kluber are predictably dominant.
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| 3:59 |
: I only play GPPs so for me it comes down to expected ownership rates.
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As we are not even two weeks into the season, it is ridiculously early to draw many conclusions from season-to-date stats. Still, most of us aren’t just standing pat with our opening day rosters, and it’s not just injuries and playing time trends that are guiding our add/drop moves.
It’s certainly not mere coincidence that Jakob Junis is coming off Monday night’s scoreless seven-inning performance against the Mariners and he is atop the most-added lists on ESPN and CBS for starting pitchers. Owners have not been scared off by Junis’ total of nine strikeouts over 14 innings, as they have been drawn in by his 0.00 ERA and 0.50 WHIP.
Read the rest of this entry »
Here is the transcript from my first ever chat. Hope everyone enjoyed it! Read the rest of this entry »
• Alex Colome has had some struggles of late and although he allowed the first two batters to reach base last night, he didn’t allow one to score and held onto the one run lead for his second save of the year. On the year Colome has allowed four runs in 3.1 innings, which can happen early on for a reliever after a rough outing but what’s troublesome is his 4.8% K% and 14.3% BB%. For his career, Colome has a 11.6% SwStr% and this year it’s only at 8.6%.
Colome displayed fantastic swing and miss stuff in 2016 paired with a better walk rate, but both of those went in the wrong direction last year and that trend has continued this year. There seems to be no real concerns with his velocity and he will have a long leash in Tampa Bay but it’s worth noting his appearances here on out. If he continues to slip look for Sergio Romo, Jose Alvarado, and Chaz Roe to be next in line. Roe and Alvarado shared the 6th and 7th innings last night with Romo getting four outs and three strikeouts to set up Colome with the save.
• Rough start to the Greg Holland era in St. Louis. Holland came on in the 10th inning last night and walked four batters while only getting one out. Bud Norris finished the inning but the damage was done as Holland received the loss. The Cardinals didn’t pay Holland to give him just one save opportunity but it might take a few appearances in non-closing situations before he’s given the role. I’d expect Bud Norris to see the next save opportunity with Dominic Leone, Tyler Lyons, and Jordan Hicks setting up along with Holland.
Be sure to roster Felipe Vazquez. He’s one of the best relievers in the league.
AGENDA
Yesterday, I discussed the starting pitchers who have experienced the largest spikes in ground ball rate. In the era of the fly ball and home run, it’s more important than ever to induce the batted ball type that cannot leave the park — the grounder. Today, let’s dive into the starting pitchers who have seen their GB% dive compared to last year. Remember we’re still dealing with tiny samples here, so it’s likely the majority of pitchers regress toward their career average. But that won’t always be the case, so it’s worth trying to catch the batted ball type distribution changers early.
How my fantasy teams look right now:
The baseball strikes back. pic.twitter.com/0Yq4cKReQU
— Cut4 (@Cut4) April 10, 2018
Apologies for publishing this more than a week after Opening Day. Life gets in the way sometimes.
I had grand plans to make a prediction for each defensive position (two for pitchers — one starter, one reliever). Turns out I won’t even make the standard 10 predictions. Again, apologies. As opposed to waiting any longer, I’m moving forward with my favorites and letting the others decay on the cutting room floor.
Here’s how my post, had it been published on time, would’ve started:
For me, making bold predictions is not about being bold just to be bold. It’s about abiding by The ProcessTM — albeit sometimes by grasping at sabermetric straws — and using it to extract value where the market insists there is none (i.e., identify the market’s largest inefficiencies). Works vice versa, too. It also takes a little bit of balance to not make the predictions too bold so I don’t stand a chance to get any correct, but I also don’t want them to be too easily attainable, either.
In the past, The ProcessTM has led me to prophetic predictions about Jose Ramirez and Austin Barnes. It has also led me to humiliating defeats, like predicting a Giancarlo Stanton bust preceding one of the more memorable seasons in recent history. Such is the nature of bold predictions; you must wear your victories loudly and proudly, but also own your mistakes. Above all, bold predictions should be teachable moments, not pissing contests.
FYI: I concocted these predictions prior to Opening Day, first week of the season be damned.