Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 4/10/2018

3:57	Brad Johnson: Let’s get rolling in a minute or two. I’ll be off on twitter to scrape some competition for ya.

3:58	o’HOOLIGAN’S: I have Alex Reyes, Dinelson Lamet and Greg Bird on the DL but only two DL spots so one of them is taking up a bench spot. Drop one of them for Albers in a 12-team 5×5 roto league? My closers are Iglesias, Kela and Soria right now.

3:59	Brad Johnson: Could drop Lamet. I don’t think you have to go out of your way for another part time closer.

3:59	Brad Johnson: I’d probably save that move for a more meaningful addition

3:59

Erik: You’re a daily guy, right? How do you decide when to pay up for a top pitcher instead of running with a cheaper guy? I usually go for the cheapest starter that I’m comfortable with in order to get as many top bats into the lineup as possible, but on nights like last night I get burnt when Scherzer and Kluber are predictably dominant.

3:59	Brad Johnson: I only play GPPs so for me it comes down to expected ownership rates.

4:00	Brad Johnson: and those can be hard to guess correctly

4:00	Brad Johnson: but basically, I’ll use expensive guys if I think they’ll be unpopular and vice versa

4:00	Brad Johnson: usually looking for people to overreact to a matchup like Godley vs. the Dodgers

4:01	Brad Johnson: it’s not a good matchup, but it’s not so terrible that you can’t use him

4:01	Brad Johnson: RotoQL’s super expensive version has a tool that predicts ownership pretty well

4:01	Bad Johnson: Brad! Brad. What to do with Addison Russel in a ten team dysnasty? Hold?

4:02	Brad Johnson: If you have a MI slot, probably yes. Otherwise, no need to worry about holding him

4:02	Nels: Nick Senzel worth a stash even in 10-team?

4:02	Brad Johnson: I think so. I expect him to be activated very soon

4:02	Pie: Blackmon or Ohtani in a 15 team 5×5 dynasty with OBP and (W+QS)? It’s a daily league so I’d have the flexibility to have Ohtani hit when he’s in the lineup?

4:03	Brad Johnson: If you’re contending now, I’d go Blackmon. If you’re just hoping to get lucky or flatout rebuilding, it’s Ohtani.

4:03	Brad Johnson: One issue with Ohtani is injury risk. Of supposedly healthy players, he has to have some of the highest risk in the entire league.

4:03	Brad Johnson: So that could really hurt his dynasty value.

4:04	Slamboni: 5×5 QS instead of wins 10 team, D Price for Gallo a fair deal?

4:04	Brad Johnson: Smells fine to me

4:04	Luis CKastillo: Need a SS in 12 team mixed (OBP, SLG). Rosario, Aledmys, Asdrubal, Dansby, Marte, Solarte, Beckham. Any of them excite you enough to own and hold or should I just play the wire and matchups?

4:04	Brad Johnson: Rosario has 5 cat monster potential

4:04	Brad Johnson: with SB the best and most important

4:04	Brad Johnson: Solarte’s a nice patch. Batting cleanup.

4:05	Pie: Robles or Tucker as a stash in a 12 team standard? The injury is starting to scare me…

4:05	Brad Johnson: Robles until we learn more

4:05	hscer: just two? slacker! ; p

4:05	Brad Johnson: Justin Mason had the first chat. I have no idea if this is going to become a regular thing.

4:05	David: I have two young players on my team. Who do you think will have more value this year. Ozzie Albies or Trey Mancini?

4:05	Brad Johnson: Albies all day

4:06	Luis CKastillo: 12 team mixed, OBP, SLG. Would you do Jose Mart or Smoak for Puig?

4:06	Brad Johnson: So I wouldn’t, but there’s nothing wrong with doing so

4:06	Brad Johnson: Either option is a fair swap

4:06	Brad Johnson: It may even be smart to do the Martinez one due to playing time concerns

4:06	Brad Johnson: he legit can’t field anywhere

4:07	Brad Johnson: if he hits enough to play anyway, you’ll be sad

4:07	Brad Johnson: but fair trades are always risky

4:07	3 Ben Sheets to the Wind: Snell, Corbin, Berrios, Taijuan, Godley, Stroman and Bauer are my fungible starters. Who should I drop if/when a closer becomes available on the wire?

4:07	Brad Johnson: Snell is my first drop there

4:07	Brad Johnson: followed by Bauer and Stroman probably

4:08	Brad Johnson: Can’t you trade Berrios for a good closer instead of taking a waiver scrub?

4:08	Don Gately: Like clockwork and regardless of experience, people forget how long the fantasy baseball season is.

4:08	Sean: Joe Mauer has put up a sneaking .850 OPS over his last 600 PAs. Not a stud, but worth taking a look at.

4:09	Brad Johnson: I’ll go one farther, Joe Mauer is a borderline stud in ottoneu FGpts. And he consistently costs nothing.

4:09	big trade: which side of this trade do you want to be on? Getting Acuna + Grienke or Bryce Harper (OBP dynasty league)

4:09	Brad Johnson: Harper me please

4:09	Brad Johnson: Not that I think the Acuna side is “losing”

4:09	Brad Johnson: especially if they need an arm now and have surplus OF studs

4:09	brood550: What kind of production are you expecting from Kyle Tucker this year?

4:10	Brad Johnson: Hard to expect him to break into the lineup. Needs a few injuries to clear a path.

4:10	Sean Manaea: For 2018, am I going to be a top 30 pitcher in QS leagues?

4:10	Brad Johnson: Possibly. A’s are showing no qualms with using their SP

4:10	Brad Johnson: which is becoming a serious issue for QS leagues

4:11	Nels: David Peralta 10-team worthy? His absence of speed or power has me batting an eyelash…

4:11	Brad Johnson: nope, he’s an injury patch

4:11	yojiveself: if and when Kingery gains SS eligibility, hold him and move/drop Chris Taylor? or hold both? 10 team H2H 5×5. I like to keep a deep bench of SP’s. Thanks!

4:11	Brad Johnson: Hold both

4:11	Sean: Scott Kingery value if he gets SS, 3B, and OF elg? Pretty appealing. (FYI: he already is 2B elg. in Yahoo)

4:12	Brad Johnson: Certainly doesn’t hurt. He’s playing most days too. I’ve been saying poor man’s Byron Buxton since he signed the contract. I’m starting to think he might outperform Buxton (mostly because Buxton isn’t reliable)

4:12	3 Ben Sheets to the Wind: Neris and Paxton on the wire and I could use both. Should I waste my high WW claim for the average closer Neris or hold off and hope he clears to use it and grab Paxton?

4:12	Brad Johnson: Have to take Paxton. That’s a potential top 10 pitcher when he’s right.

4:12	Brad Johnson: I doubt Neris is closing by end of season

4:13	Brad Johnson: Nothing against him, he’s just the fifth or seven best reliever in that system.

4:13	Tom: Hi Brad- thanks for the chat. I’m in a league with a DH- who would you rather have ROS- Evan Gattis or Nomar Mazara? Both expected to be my primary DH (Posey at C).

4:13	Brad Johnson: Mazara

4:13	Mark Zuckerberg: Who is the next Nick Senzel? Besides Acuna, Flaherty, and other highly owned players.

4:13	Brad Johnson: How deep can I reach?

4:14	Brad Johnson: I’m super in on Jhailyn Ortiz.

4:14	Brad Johnson: That’s going to take awhile though

4:14	Brad Johnson: If you’re looking more near-term, I think you’re asking about Vlad Jr. Bo Bichette, Luis Urias, or Fernando Tatis Jr. Not in that order.

4:14	Brad Johnson: Brendan Rodgers perhaps

4:15	Luis CKastillo: what ways are there to access your opinions about our fantasy problems?

4:15	Brad Johnson: Check out the signature at the bottom of the post.

4:16	Brad Johnson: I try to walk a line between promoting it and not beating everybody over the head with it. Not easy.

4:16	Brad Johnson: And just a general note: Ivan Nova batting is the best

4:16	John Haha: Trade Beltre for Margot? Not particularly desperate for speed, just as an upside play. standard 5×5

4:16	Brad Johnson: I like the buy low attempt

4:16	Brad Johnson: I also really like Beltre

4:16	Brad Johnson: works for me though based on your stated need

4:17	Brad Johnson: Kingery could be another option with better utility and a similar offensive profile

4:17	Sean: Worried about Ryan Zimmeran? He’s just been an .800 OPS-ish guy since May 1 of last year. That doesn’t play as a 1B-only guy who doesn’t run…

4:17	Brad Johnson: Not worried so much as I was never in on him

4:17	Brad Johnson: I’ll buy him as a stud bat when healthy. When is he healthy?

4:18	Matt: Have to grab a closer or two off the heap. How would you rank Ziegler/Albers/Parker/Yates for a team that needs S but not so much ratio help?

4:18	Brad Johnson: Ziegler, Parker, Albers, Yates

4:18	Josh: Is Colin Moran an add in 12 teamers? Think he can .280/20?

4:18	Brad Johnson: Fringe and basically yes

4:18	Brad Johnson: Maybe closer to .270

4:18	Mark Zuckerberg: Re: next Nick Senzel question. I was looking for guys not universally owned, and for 2018.

4:19	Brad Johnson: Let me think about that a moment

4:20	Brad Johnson: Austin Hays, Urias, Alex Verdugo, Jake Bauers, Francisco Mejia

4:20	Brad Johnson: Urias is the best of those but maybe the least close to the majors

4:20	Taylor: Is Abreu + grandal enough for Hoskins in 12 team H2H 10×10. I would pick up Barnes for catcher

4:21	Brad Johnson: No…

4:21	Brad Johnson: Go ahead and try it though

4:21	ThickTanPretzel: Just lost Suarez. What do you expect from Brian Anderson this year? OBP league. Thanks

4:21	Brad Johnson: Similarish to Suarez. Much more volatility in the projection.

4:21	Poncho: Should I be rushing to pick-up Nick Senzel? What does the ROS return look like?

4:22	Brad Johnson: Probably yes, if only to re-sell him right away

4:22	Brad Johnson: Expect some five category production early in his career

4:22	Taylor: Would you drop either of Ian happ or schwarber for senzel?

4:23	Brad Johnson: Maybe Happ. Probably not rushing to do that

4:23	yojiveself: I just saw that Pivetta was traded to the phils for papelbon back in 2015. that trade is looking pretty good now for the phils!

4:23	Brad Johnson: The Nationals can’t have nice things. At least when it comes to developing their own pitchers in recent years

4:23	Brad Johnson: they’re all traded away

4:24	Linus: Domingo Santana: beast or bust this season? I’m growing concerned.

4:24	Brad Johnson: In between?

4:24	Brad Johnson: Still the less popular version of George Springer to me. Will usually have some playing time.

4:24	Breezy: Selling Kimbrel?

4:25	Brad Johnson: Considering it. Not forcing the issue though. The red flags are worrisome

4:26	Brad Johnson: Last year was as good as it was due to career best velocity and command. Right now he’s showing career worsts of both

4:26	Matt Harvey: Am I better than a streamer in 12-team mixers? Maybe with the 8-1 start for NYM someone believes.

4:26	Brad Johnson: I don’t buy it

4:26	JS: I know it’s early, but have you noticed Maikel Franco doing anything different this year to fuel his hot start?

4:26	Brad Johnson: Very obvious changes actually

4:26	Brad Johnson: Let’s see…

4:27	Brad Johnson: Now: https://www.mlb.com/video/francos-rbi-double-in-the-4th/c-1914824183?t…

4:28	Brad Johnson: Past: https://www.mlb.com/video/francos-three-run-homer/c-1858902283?tid=647…

4:28	Brad Johnson: Those aren’t great

4:28	Brad Johnson: Working quickly 🙂

4:28	Brad Johnson: But try to pay attention to the setup

4:28	Brad Johnson: He’s closed off that unnecessary open bullshit

4:28	Brad Johnson: I think it’s quieted him down and helped him to get more lift while staying through the middle of the field better

4:29	Vegan Man!: Can Colin Moran be a decent fill in at 3B for me (once he gains eligibility in 2 games) in a 12 team roto? Lost Suarez and Lamb to the DL. Thanks!

4:29	Brad Johnson: Yes

4:29	AT: Are Albert Almore and Austin Barnes going to ever be released from the shackles of wrong-side platooning?

4:29	Brad Johnson: Probably not Almora

4:29	Brad Johnson: Although their OF defense is so bad

4:29	Brad Johnson: Happ is responsible for 2 of the 5 runs today

4:30	Brad Johnson: Failed to catch an easy fly ball, turned into a double instead

4:30	Marc: How much of a second piece should I have to add to Willy Contreras to land Sanchez in a 10-team mixer?

4:30	Brad Johnson: Pretty serious.

4:30	Brad Johnson: Because the format is so shallow, it’s hard to beat replacement level with a second piece.\

4:31	Brad Johnson: Better to look 2-for-2

4:31	Dever Fever: What are we expecting from Senzel this year? Next year?

4:31	Gorky: What kind of a pacing 5×5 stat line are you expecting from Senzel for 2018 only?

4:31	3 Ben Sheets to the Wind: Senzel or Chris Taylor? Also, is Senzel a SB guy or no?

4:31	Moelicious: Senzel never played above AA. Why is there so much hype?

4:31	54: What are the chances that all this Senzel hype is misplaced, the Reds dont care about our fake teams, and he doesnt sniff the Show until rosters expand? Looking for a % pulled out of thin air plz.

4:31	Biggy: Senzel a priority pickup?

4:32	Brad Johnson: So I’ve received a few questions about Nick Senzel

4:32	Al: What’s Hoskins hr/ba/avg upside?

4:32	Brad Johnson: All of them

4:32	Brad Johnson: 🙂

4:32	Brad Johnson: Okay okay, I’ll go back to Senzel

4:32	Brad Johnson: Yes, Senzel can steal bases. Like 10 to 25. We’ll just have to wait and see.

4:33	Brad Johnson: I’m sticking with Taylor over Senzel for now

4:33	Brad Johnson: Would like to see Taylor get going since his breakout was kind of not supported by his peripherals

4:33	Brad Johnson: I’ll say 20 HR pace, 15 SB, .275 average for 2018

4:34	Brad Johnson: Could be a very wide range of outcomes though

4:34	Brad Johnson: Same for next year.

4:34	OddBall Herrera: What do you think the Padres do with Myers if he continues to prove what we all knew – that he seems to break frequently if asked to be an outfielder?

4:34	Brad Johnson: Probably have to trade him

4:34	Brad Johnson: What other choice do they have?

4:35	54: Stick with Mr Kipnis in the early going, or go with… Panik, Villar, Wong, uh… Devon Travis… Logan Forsythe…

4:35	Brad Johnson: With those options, I’ll stick with Kipnis

4:35	Erli: Are Junis and Estrada worth keeping over a streamer in 12-team mixers?

4:35	Brad Johnson: Stream Estrada still

4:35	Brad Johnson: You probably wind up streaming Junis too, but you might as well get a better look at him

4:36	o’HOOLIGAN’S: Sleeper hitters for RBIs that might be on the waiver wire in a 12-team league?

4:36	Brad Johnson: Solarte bats cleanup!

4:36	Brad Johnson: Really, just look for everyday guys who bat 3 to 5

4:36	Taylor: For help with ratios and holds with a rp in the sp slot do you prefer Jordan hicks, gsellman, or bud norris?

4:36	Brad Johnson: Hicks

4:36	Jonah: How can Joey Votto, who is almost certainly the best pure hitter in the game, go through such extended periods of incompetence? I just don’t get it.

4:37	Brad Johnson: So the thing about Votto is that he’s aging

4:37	Brad Johnson: The wheels will eventually fall off

4:37	Brad Johnson: but he seems to be elite when it comes to making adjustments

4:37	Brad Johnson: had all kinds of red flags last year and was a monster

4:37	Brad Johnson: I’ll keep buying an adjustment until it doesn’t happen

4:37	Brad Johnson: Also, baseball is hard

4:38	Steve: Any sleeper prospects you expect to come this year and make a big fantasy impact?

4:38	Brad Johnson: Roman Quinn is probably my favorite. His batting profile is basically OF-only Trea Turner

4:38	Brad Johnson: plus a lot older and always injured

4:39	A Random Dude: Re: Franco “He’s closed off that unnecessary open bullshit.” I love when there’s cursing in the responses. Also, I swear a lot so I’m glad I’m not the only one who swears in normal conversation

4:39	Brad Johnson: Our guidance here at FanGraphs is basically “don’t fucking overdo it with the cursing”

4:39	Alvaro: Is it a fair bet to say the minor leaguers called up will have less of an impact than last year’s crop? 2017 seems unusually strong for call ups.

4:40	Brad Johnson: Last year was unusually productive. I mean, Aaron Judge…

4:40	Brad Johnson: He wasn’t supposed to be much of anything

4:41	Brad Johnson: Hoskins and Olson were supposed to maybe struggle too

4:41	Brad Johnson: instead they basically were the 3 best power rookies ever

4:41	Brad Johnson: Javy Baez is having a day

4:41	Brad Johnson: likes this Ivan Nova dude

4:41	Brad Johnson: Also ruining my ottoneu H2H stats for Nova

4:41	MikeHoncho: Thoughts on Mikolas…stay the course or drop for guys like T.Ross, Ryu, E-Rod, or Newcomb?

4:41	Brad Johnson: Stay!

4:42	Brad Johnson: I haven’t watched Ross yet

4:42	Brad Johnson: but he’s probably at least a standard deviation better than those alternatives

4:42	Ozzie: Hoskins HR yesterday was easy … so easy. Like, wowza, it was hot.

4:42	Brad Johnson: https://www.mlb.com/video/hoskins-two-run-jack/c-1920475883?tid=647926…

4:43	David: 10 team, OPS & AVG. Traded Stroman & Shane Greene for Eddie Rosario and Gausman. Think I did okay?

4:43	Brad Johnson: It’s fine

4:43	Brad Johnson: None of those players are difference makers in the format. Rosario may be the most likely to carry you of the 4

4:43	tacopocket: I just dealt Paxton and upton for Stanton. Think I did ok but should I have traded price and upton for Stanton and a closer (treinen maybe)?

4:44	Brad Johnson: Looks fine to me

4:44	Brad Johnson: I can’t find anybody to trade me Stanton

4:44	High or low volatility: How valuable is someone like Touki or Yadier Alvarez in a dynasty league? Is having someone boring but producing right now (Trevor Williams, for example) worth trading for to shed the risk?

4:44	Brad Johnson: I prefer Williams to them

4:44	OddBall Herrera: I’m starting to feel like that guy from Being John Malkovich, except everyone in the restaurant is saying ‘Senzel Senzel Senzel?’

4:44	Mike: I’ve been in my league for a very long time. My team for the past two years has been trash and once again I am noncompetitive. I really hate what this does to me. Ever take a hiatus from fantasy baseball? I’m the commish and the person who knows everyone in the league. What do I do?!

4:45	Brad Johnson: First off, it’s April 10

4:45	Brad Johnson: You’re not drawing dead.

4:45	Brad Johnson: Start approaching this incrementally

4:46	Brad Johnson: Work on fixing your biggest problems while waiting on positive regression where applicable

4:46	Brad Johnson: Don’t worry about getting to 1st all at once, just try to climb a spot at a time

4:46	Brad Johnson: Stream when applicable

4:46	A Random Dude: Colin Moran. Picked him up over Brian Anderson to cover MI with Suarez on the DL. Yay or nay? I just think I like his bat more.

4:46	Brad Johnson: Same asset class

4:46	Brad Johnson: When presented with the same choice in two similar leagues, I picked one of each

4:47	Jonah: Taijuan Walker is such a tease. Hold or stream in 10-team?

4:47	Brad Johnson: Hold

4:47	Blackbird: Look in to your crystal ball and spit out what becomes of Gregory Bird? Lifetime DL’er or something more?

4:47	Brad Johnson: I think he’ll have average health going forward

4:47	Brad Johnson: Whether he hits enough to remain a Yankee is another matter

4:48	Brad Johnson: And leaving Yankee Stadium won’t be good for his career

4:48	Hitmen: Has Reynaldo Lopez earned a promotion from streamer (12 team)? @Min?

4:48	Brad Johnson: Not yet for me

4:48	yojiveself: aside from patreon and here, where else do we see your writing? and no, I am not brad johnson using a fake chat name

4:48	Brad Johnson: Rotoworld – I do DRAFT DFS picks 3 days a week, Saves and Steals and Homer Report on the main page, and The Fringes behind their season paywall

4:49	Brad Johnson: I also do streaming picks 3 days a week at Rotoballer

4:49	tacopocket: best guess on when torres comes up? my middle infield is awful and I was wondering if I should stash him now. Problem is – its a small bench

4:49	Brad Johnson: If the Yankees continue to have health issues, we could see him soon. Probably temporarily

4:49	Brad Johnson: The Yankees aren’t worried about Super 2 cash

4:50	Brad Johnson: They’ll get the extra year of club control then make decisions purely on need and developmental considerations

4:50	YO: Would you trade Michael Conforto for Chris Sale’s Dad?

4:51	Brad Johnson: Only if they throw in a zoot suit

4:51	Guest: Ok, so that Blue Jays offense isn’t going to cut it if they want to pretend to be a wild card contender. If Guerrero continues to destroy all humans in AA, they really need to see what he can do for them before the season gets out of hand, right?

4:51	Brad Johnson: I dunno. Teams are so risk averse these days, and this is a Shapiro-run org.

4:51	Brad Johnson: I imagine they want him to develop step by step

4:52	TJ: Oh, hi there. Help a brother out and tell me what you think about these trades: gives Gary Sanchez and gets Gattis and Hamels \| gives Lindor and gets Baez and Aaron Sanchez. I mean, these are impossible to justify, right?

4:52	Brad Johnson: Gross. Gross. Gross

4:52	Brad Johnson: The second one is like vaguely excusable

4:52	Brad Johnson: I can see being a Lindor pessimist and saying Baez is 80% of the way there

4:53	Brad Johnson: Then if you also think Sanchez can be a surprise Cy candidate, it’s a reasonable swap

4:53	Brad Johnson: the Sanchez deal is almost enough to make me click veto

4:53	Brad Johnson: I never veto anything

4:53	Roto denim chikin: Chris Archer for Reds SP Luis Castillo + Edwin Diaz a fair trade? Not retired Marlins 2B Luis Castillo.

4:53	Brad Johnson: I like it.

4:54	Brad Johnson: Also, I like that you’re asking my advice and also felt the need to identify that you don’t want to trade for a long-retired player.

4:54	GGGarth: You dropping a mediocre known quantity like Yonder Alonso to take a swing on Senzel’s upside in shallow 10-team?

4:54	Brad Johnson: I don’t hate that plan

4:54	Brad Johnson: I really like Alonso 🙁

4:55	Brad Johnson: His production is very much replaceable though

4:55	Brad Johnson: And if you need the SBs, he ain’t gonna give ’em

4:55	tacopocket: i traded jose Martinez for willie Calhoun before the season (worried about PT)…..and i going to be upset about this or very upset about this?

4:55	Brad Johnson: If it’s dynasty or keeper, you’ll come out ahead

4:55	Brad Johnson: otherwise, very upset

4:55	DRAGONWAGON: Reason for optimism for Dansby Swanson? Would you want him or A. Simmons as a replacement for Bogaerts?

4:55	Brad Johnson: Simmons for me

4:56	Brad Johnson: At the end of the day, a good Swanson season is like 14 HR, 6 SB, and a .270 average.

4:56	Brad Johnson: That’s a GOOD season

4:57	Brad Johnson: Simmons actually bats 6th so he’ll get some run production to go with his 12 HR, 15 SB, and .280 AVG

4:57	Ben: Judge is 0-12 with 10 Ks vs Sale. Do him and Giancarlo combine for over/under 5.5 Ks tonight?

4:58	Brad Johnson: I almost put Judge in my DFS lineup for the lulz

4:58	Rick: Trading closers for like 50th ranked SPs is typically a no-brainer move, right? Like a Greg Holland for Chase Anderson/Lance Lynn?

4:58	Brad Johnson: Well, you’ve named some unattractive options there

4:59	Brad Johnson: I wouldn’t call it a no brainer

4:59	Brad Johnson: more like par value

4:59	Brad Johnson: Since saves are such a constrained stat, I like to extract a premium when possible

4:59	Spanky: 7×7 dynasty 12t QS and W. trade Estrada for Faria or AAron Sanchez?

4:59	Brad Johnson: Sanchez

5:00	Spanky: does fangraphs have an office, or do you guys just all work from home

5:00	Brad Johnson: The corporate offices are located in Cistulli’s Basement

5:00	Brad Johnson: Cistulli’s Basement also happens to be a very popular nightclub

5:00	Mike: I benched Baez for Franco today. This is why I hate this game..

5:00	Votto Owner: Votto has a 43% LD rate but a BABIP of only .300. Also only walking 5% also small sample size? Right? RIGHT??!?!?!?

5:01	Sean: Do you think it’s smart to be super selective / cautious with starting pitching early and wait for peripherals to stabilize before making decisions? Yea, you’ll miss out on the pickups of the year. But you also won’t have to cope with the busts who destroy your ratios.

5:01	Brad Johnson: I take the other approach and go all in

5:01	Brad Johnson: April ERAs are the lowest, although you’re right that they’re the least predictable

5:01	Matt W: Let’s talk Willie Calhoun. When’s his callup? ROS projections?

5:02	Brad Johnson: I don’t see any reason for the call to wait past April 20th or so

5:02	Brad Johnson: I’m not as hugely in on Calhoun as the projection systems

5:02	Brad Johnson: 20+ HR .265 average no speed in 450 PA?

5:02	Brad Johnson: Good run production, assuming a decent lineup role

5:03	Sean: Liverpool just knocked City out of the Champions League.

5:03	Brad Johnson: I’m stoked for Bratwurst versus Worcestershire tonight.

5:03	Vegan Man!: Should I trade Estevan Florial in a 14 team dynasty points league? I’m in win now mode, have a loaded OF with Robles still in the minors, and Florial has super high variance, and is probably 2+ years away. Also, did I just answer my own question? Thanks!

5:03	Brad Johnson: I think you got there

5:04	Brad Johnson: There are always more Florials

5:04	Brad Johnson: I swear his name grade is half his fantasy trade value

5:04	DRAGONWAGON: Do you like Miguel Andujar?

5:04	Brad Johnson: I do

5:04	Brad Johnson: It’s time for me to start wrapping this up

5:04	DRAGONWAGON: How many at bats until the batted ball info becomes more or less ‘stable’?

5:04	Brad Johnson: Depends on each stat. Most of them are a season or more 🙂

5:05	Brad Johnson: That’s why it can be better to hunt for confirmable changes like Alonso last year (and a billion others)

5:05	Andy: You starting Josh Reddick or Benintendi right now? I keep running out Benintendi for the upside and SB’s, but damn Reddick is playing well.

5:05	Brad Johnson: Benintendi

5:06	Brad Johnson: You’re asking a FanGraphs writer to decide between the better player and the hot hand

5:06	Brad Johnson: I’m contractually obligated

5:06	54: Kevin Gausman. Appealing enough upside to hold in a 16 team keeper franchise, or just a 27 y/o decent arm in a bad park?

5:06	Brad Johnson: Yea, hold

5:06	o’HOOLIGAN’S: Better stash in 5×5 catagories league, Gleyber Torres or Willy Calhoun? Position doesn’t matter, most likely will be slotted into Util slot.

5:06	Brad Johnson: push

5:06	Dood: Do you think it’s easier to win at dfs in contests with more or fewer people? What about with a full slate of games vs a short one?

5:06	Brad Johnson: Smaller is easier in my experience

5:07	Brad Johnson: But then you get $20 instead of $4,000

5:07	DRAGONWAGON: Need a replacement for Odor at 2B. Lowrie, Panik, Solarte, Beckham, who do you like?

5:07	Brad Johnson: Solarte bats cleanup!

5:07	Jose Martinez: I sure cooled off quickly. Everyone’s favorite breakout player of the year no more.

5:07	Gregory Polanco: just went 0/5…breakout season isn’t happening, folks.

5:07	Brad Johnson: Haters gone hate

5:08	Death of QS: Can you talk more about managers pulling starters early and the reduction in QS across the league? Are the top 25 SP more valuable than ever in QS leagues?

5:08	Brad Johnson: Yes. I hate QS leagues because there’s only one strategy to SP. Roster a bunch of the best ones.

5:09	Johnny: Garrett Richards has had command issues. Think maybe he’s droppable in a 14 teaser?

5:09	Brad Johnson: Not that deep

5:09	Brad Johnson: 10 team, yes

5:09

Adam: I find myself with 8 SP and 4CL (and Knebel on DL) in my 9-team mixed league. So 3 SP are taking up all my bench spots and – though I have no glaring holes on offense – I want to rebalance, at least to have someone to plug in when a hitter gets a day off. But it’s early and I don’t see any clear trading partners. In a league this shallow, is there shame in dropping a good SP (MFulmer/Morton/Manaea level) to scoop up a reasonably decent hitter off the wire?

5:09	Brad Johnson: Can’t drop Morton

5:10	Brad Johnson: I guess the other two could be cuttable. That’s a shame though

5:10

Mr. Haney: In a 14 team redraft Roto league, how late is too late to get a second closer? I have Allen only. I don’t want to spend half of my FAAB again this year chasing potential or fill-in closers. Thinking about offering a high level SP like Archer for a top closer (I have good strikeout pitchers). Who’s the best I could hope to get?

5:10	Brad Johnson: Maybe Osuna?

5:10	Kyle: Should I trade Acuna and CMart for Blackmon in a keep forever?

5:10	Brad Johnson: No

5:10	Brad Johnson: Acuna alone should be sufficient if you’re going for it now

5:10	Sean: Are you buying Matt Chapman’s plate discipline gains early on? Huge if it’s sustainable.

5:10	Brad Johnson: Not sure, but I really like Chapman

5:11	Javier Baez: Trade Javy Baez after his 2 HR day if I have Semien? I’d package Baez in a 2-for-1 to upgrade a SP, let’s say.

5:11	Brad Johnson: Sure?

5:11	woodberry: J. Montgomery a streamer in 14T 6×6 H2H, or is he worth a hold?

5:11	Brad Johnson: Hold for me

5:11	Johnny: In a holds league I’m noticing Ottavino. Dude has been filthy so far.

5:11	Brad Johnson: Yes!

5:11	Brad Johnson: Grab him. He just showed up on Jeff Z’s “healthy” list too

5:12	Brad Johnson: Ok, it’s time now

5:12	Brad Johnson: Good day folks

5:12	o’HOOLIGAN’S: How many RBIs do you think Jose Martinez accumulates this year?

5:12	Brad Johnson: 18,000

5:12	DDS: Hey Brad, I just lost Suarez, while Justin Turner sits on my DL. Should I stream 3B until Turner gets back, or try to make a trade for one?

5:12	Brad Johnson: Stream

5:12	Fone Chiggins: Willie C or Shin Soo Choo ROS?

5:12	Brad Johnson: Pretty torn about this one. I feel like Choo is the right, super unsexy answer

BAL	CHW	LAA
BOS	CLE	OAK
NYY	DET	SEA
TBR	KCR	TEX
TOR	MIN	HOU

ATL	CHC*	ARI
MIA	CIN	COL
WSN	MIL	LAD
NYM*	PIT	SDP*
PHI	STL	SFG