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To hell with reliable hitter sample sizes for the day and probably the rest of the season. I’ve waited long enough. It’s time to start figuring out which hitters are changing their approach and who should be targeted or dumped. By examining plate discipline and launch angle, the investigation can begin.

Last season, I kept diving into which stats point to sustainable breakouts. Two concepts stood out, plate discipline and launch angle. Concentration on changes in just these approaches removed 95% of the noise. If these two areas don’t point to a change, an owner can then see if power (exit velocity, HR/FB) or pull rate. Otherwise, just ignore the current stat line and expect some regression.

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A quiz for you: What do Brandon Drury, Brad Miller, J.T. Realmuto, Tyler Flowers, Ian Kinsler, Justin Turner, and Delino DeShields have in common? Yes, that’s right—they are (or were until yesterday, when Kinsler showed up for work) all on the disabled list. And they are also all members of the Concupiscent Curds, a team we acquired in an auction in February, when the preseason was young. We purchased 18 hitters that day—14 starters and 4 (of a total of 7) reserves. And here we are, two weeks into the season, and one-third of them are hors de combat—a casualty rate that compares unfavorably to that of Commonwealth infantry on the first day of the Battle of the Somme.

We do not mention this as a plea for sympathy. The Lord sendeth oblique strains on the just and the unjust alike. Rather, we raise the issue in recognition of the fact that this kind of thing is happening all over. In the narrow universe that we, and probably you, usually inhabit, “oblique,” “groin,” and “hamstring” are terms as ominous as West Nile Virus or Botulism are in the one we’re occasionally obliged to return to. Our problem, and probably yours, is what to do about injuries when they befall you in deep leagues. Among the various bodies that remain, are there any that are even lukewarm? Or are they all ready for embalming? Read the rest of this entry »

One guy ruled ’em all yesterday, and I’m going to write some stuff about him. No, not Jose Berrios.

AGENDA

1. TDG Invitational
2. Weather Reports
3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
4. SaberSim Says…
5. DJ Flies

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Thursday’s slate was short on games and also short on any sort of closer developments. We also got a break from the ongoing late-inning soap opera being acted out for us by the Brewers and Cardinals. The former team had the night off, while the latter blew out the Reds, 13-4.

Oddly enough, the Cardinals’ bullpen produced one of the two saves recorded on Thursday. Mike Mayers pitched the final three innings, giving the late-inning contingent a rest during a lopsided game. Mayers shut out the Reds over his three frames, allowing only a double, a single and a walk while striking out two batters.
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The Roto Riteup would like to wish you a Happy Friday the 13th!

via GIPHY

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4/12/18

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 19, the best baseball strategy game ever made – available NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms! Go to ootpdevelopments.com to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER19!

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Notable Transactions/Rumors/Articles

• Basebrawls (0:00)

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Yonny Chirinos

The 24-year-old righty has made two starts so far this season and I watched his start from the 5th because of a better camera angle. Since it was his first game, the Gameday’s pitch labeling was off with his slider and splitter getting mislabeled quite a bit.

• Fastball: 91-95 mph. Fairly straight pitch with a small bit of glove-side run and sink. His plus controls made this pitch play up. Also, he may have mixed in a handful of four-seamers.

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Each Thursday, I’ll be looking at the top waiver targets who could be available in your deeper leagues. Every player who will be included in this series will have an ownership rate of 33 percent or lower in CBS and Fantrax leagues, which is a pretty good indication of these players being available in at least some mixed leagues with at least 15 teams.

Note: Ownership percentages are listed in parentheses, with CBS listed first and Fantrax listed second.

Franchy Cordero, OF, Padres (9/27): To be honest, I worried that by the time I wrote this, Cordero would be too popular to include in this week’s column. He is an industry favorite, probably in no small part because of the splash he made on Statcast leaderboards during his brief time up with the Padres last season. Both his barrels per batted ball event ratio (14.3 percent) and exit velocity on flies and liners (97.3 mph) placed Cordero in the top 20 for hitters with at least 30 batted balls.
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The season is less than two weeks old, but the ottoneu waiver wire is as busy as ever. The sample sizes of early performances are microscopic, but if you want to snag the next breakout or “popup” performer the early bird gets the worm. In what will be a recurring feature again this year, let’s look at the ottoneu most added (and cut) players in the early going.

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