Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – Friday the 13th!!

Paul Sporer: Hi everybody! We’re going to have to be a tight hour today, so let’s get started!

Ms. Happ: Start Reynaldo Lopez tonight?

Paul Sporer: Yep

Boomfizzle: Ohtani runs like a cheetah. It’s a shame he won’t ever be allowed to steal a base.

Paul Sporer: Yeah it’s just an unnecessary risk for their prized pitcher

Schoop of Ice Cream: If the Blue Jays have any intention of bringing up Vlad Jr. this year, why not do it next week, if even just until JD is back? The extra year of service time clock will pass this weekend, and if they’re serious about contending he might be the best bat to fill in at 3rd will Donaldson heals

Paul Sporer: He’s a 19 yr old w/7 games at Double-A. There are no guarantees about his performance. I don’t think rushing him up makes them any greater contenders than they are right now

John: Expected dates for Acuna, Gleyber and Senzel?

Paul Sporer: Y’all, I wanna put the kibosh on these questions early. I have zero clue. I could blindly guess, but what does that do for anyone? The prospect guys don’t know this stuff so someone like me is completely in the dark

The answer is Willie Calhoun: My league has an NA slot where you can stash a minor leaguer. After Acuna (already taken), who would you take as a stash?

Paul Sporer: I’m down with Calhoun or either of the two mentioned in the question above (Gleyber, Senzel)

Jason: Looking to upgrade at starting pitcher. What range of starter do you think I could get for Gregory Polanco and Newcomb. 18 Team H2H points league.

Paul Sporer: It depends on your league. You have to find someone who’d want those two and then try to get one of their good SPs.

Paul Sporer: I’m not trying to cop out of an answer, it’s just not a great Q. A better way for that question is to include some SPs you’re going to target and then I can try and give you an idea of whether or not you’ll land them.

Sporty Spice: Bearclaw the next handcuff to get a job?

Paul Sporer: Addison Reed

Lemm: Thoughts on Teoscar Hernandez’s call-up and playing time? The Jays’ OF is still pretty crowded.

Paul Sporer: I think Grichuk’s struggles and Morales being out will get Teoscar some burn

Dan: Who’s a good SS replacement for Elvis Andrus? I picked up Cozart in the meantime, but is there anyone readily available that could match the steals?

Paul Sporer: You didn’t mention anyone on your wire lol…. Cozart works but I have no idea beyond him

Cody: Hey Paul, I’m in a deep 16 team H2H Cats league. For some reason, we have IP as a category and can start up to 9 SP, so I’ve done my best to grab some lottery tickets as the wire for SP is barren.
How would you rank these pitchers?
Chirinos, Lucchesi, Triggs, Tropeano, Wheeler.

Paul Sporer: Wheeler, Lucchesi, Trop, Chir, Triggs

Ready Player One: That a blip for Fulmer or should I be worried? It was Cleveland.

Paul Sporer: One bad start should never worry you about someone unless they got hurt during it, of course

Kerry: Trade Luis Castillo and Tim Anderson to land Thor in 10-team redraft?  I’ve got Xander, Kingery, and Anderson rotating in my MI slot, so I’ve got the depth to make the deal.

Paul Sporer: Yes, I’m in for that

Chuck: Manuel Margot has been dropped in my 12 team league. Use that young #1 waiver claim on him?

Paul Sporer: Ehhhh… I like Margot, but I’d only do it if you really had a need for some potential speed

SN: Ozzie looking like a straight up stud today

Chance: Is Ozzie Albies the second coming of Jesus?

Paul Sporer: Those were actually in order ^^

Dale: Joe Mauer becoming fantasy relevant?

Paul Sporer: Just so hard to slot him at 1b or CI with no pop. Obviously in OBP lgs, but I think he’s already rostered in those

Tim: Speaking of spooky – what the hell is going on with Bogaerts? Every other day he’s either totally fine or totally boned.

Paul Sporer: I’ve seen mostly positive stuff including him being out of the walking boot

Ted: So what’s the play with Ohtani (batter) in Yahoo? Drafted him on a whim, and I’m obviously starting him when he plays, but is this a sell-high moment? Or just platoon him with someone and be happy with what I get?

Paul Sporer: It depends what you could really get. You’d have to find someone drunk on the hype bc he’s a hassle to manage day to day and limited playing time-wise, but producing big time so far

Billy : Is Ian Desmond done? Even though his GB% was 63% and xwoba under .300 last year, you could put that down to injury but he hasn’t bounced back this year.

Paul Sporer: He gets more than 13 games before I say he hasn’t bounced back yet, but it’s lookin bad

Moltar: McCullers [sad face emoji]

Paul Sporer: Is this for something beyond the blow up? That’s just part of his game right now

The CL: Tell me I was wise to drop Teheran in favor of Yonny Chirinos…?

Paul Sporer: I’m fine with it

Padres: I’m glad I reached a couple rounds for Ozzie Albies, Dude is a Beast!

Paul Sporer: Been really fun watching him so far

Guest: 12-team league, start Roark tonight?  What about Maeda?

Paul Sporer: Yes on both

Ken: When do you start worrying about average in roto leagues? All my guys are starting slow and a few black holes (E5, Jose Ramirez, Story) have me sitting dead last, but don’t want to overreact to this too soon.

Paul Sporer: Around a month. Obviously you can’t let it sink too far, but you also can’t start chopping top 5-6 round picks that early. Worst part is that AVG is harder to find off the wire, but if you’re really falling behind, maybe you play some hot hands with a couple late-round roster spots trying to catch a hot hand or two

Kevin: Yonder Alonso worth hanging onto in an OPS league? Statcast loves him but not having a great start. In a vacuum, would you pick him or Aaron Sanchez?

Paul Sporer: Too early to move on from him in vacuum, but in the case of Alonso v. Sanchez, I’m taking Sanchez

Billy : Colin Moran– over/under 115 wrc+ ROS?

Paul Sporer: I’ll go over, 118

Guest: Traded Junis for Maeda.  Good, lateral, or bad move?

Paul Sporer: Lateral. Probably traded Ks for volume

Philly Phan: Is this the time to sell high on Ohtani (pitcher)?

Paul Sporer: I mean, you certainly can. But it really just depends what that is in your league. If someone is offering a top 4 round player, I’m listening

Larry Biggersby: Was I wrong to hope for an Adam Engel breakout? Was hoping he, Trumbo and Canha could form an OF together some day: Marks and Engel!

Paul Sporer: lol

Lil UZR Brt: Is Reynaldo Lopez worth owning over Montgomery or Gausman?

Paul Sporer: That’s a personal preference trio right there. Pick your favorite 2 of the 3. I think I’d go JorMont, Lopez right now

Kyle: An owner in my 14 team keep 5 players has albies and kingery. Any chance they are keeper worthy at the end of the year and which one would you try and pry from the owner?

Paul Sporer: Both very well could be and I definitely see Albies doing so

tacopocket: what’s  up paul?  is the potential closer stashing picture any clearer?  I have reed and ottavino.  Should i drop either for steckenrider, bearclaw, givens, edwards?   what do you think of neris and who could he lose that job to….hunter?

Paul Sporer: Not too much clearer right now, IMO. I like the duo you have and I’d stick with them. Ottavino is delivering all formats value so far with his Ks

Gibby’s Waddle: I traded Verdugo for Newcomb…. tell me I am a smart man, please?

Paul Sporer: It’s fine

Ozzie: Any love for Tyson Ross?

Paul Sporer: Ya I’m a Ross fan. Obviously insanely risky to stay healthy, but I think he can get back to all formats viability when his slider is cruising

Andy: You buying into the Gregory Polanco re-birth this year?

Paul Sporer: http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/the-all-bum-team/

Paul Sporer: http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/paul-sporers-bold-predictions-for-201…

Erli: thoughts on Max Kepler? an increasing FB rate and better plate discipline so far

Paul Sporer: Ya it’s an interesting start for sure

Sean: Yuli Gurriel is back tonight. Thoughts on him in standard mixed leagues? He’s flown under the radar I think…

Paul Sporer: Ya his price tanked after the injury. Solid batting average source which is tough to get on the cheap. Eager to see how the playing time shuffle works in HOU

Bob Dobalina: Nido worth taking a flier on?

Paul Sporer: Maybe NL Only 2 C

Craig : Worried at all on Castillo (Hrs) and Syndergaard (Blisters)?

Paul Sporer: Not really. I knew the HRs were part of Castillo’s game coming in and they were my primary concern in his profile, though I hope we see him get his great fastball back

tacopocket: the dentist says he’s coming back early….true?

Paul Sporer: I hoooopppeeeee… but I wouldn’t know any better than him

Guest: Albers going to hold the closer job til Knebel is back?

Paul Sporer: Unless he implodes

Jack: I traded rizzo springer and longoria for bregman albies puig and deshields. I like the upside but worried that i turned two 2nd rounders into parts

Paul Sporer: Nah, you’ll be alright. Albies is going to play like a 2nd rounder and Bregman was close to a 2nd rounder himself

Craig : trea turner slow start/low hard hit rate worry you?

Paul Sporer: I need at least 30 games before I really start worrying about much with top level players

Gibby’s Waddle: Moncada is driving me (and likely all other long term owners) nuts … give me hope that things will get better.

Paul Sporer: You had to know a run like this was very much in the probable outcomes. He’s done nothing to show otherwise

Paul Sporer: BTW, he can still breakout and have the season you’re hoping for, but if i had Moncada, this doesn’t have any more worried than my normal concern over his risk. Thus the high-risk/high-reward tag

Joey Lucchesi?: Joey Lucchesi??

Paul Sporer: Apparently he’s lit lol

Andy: How do you feel about Alex Wood?  Worth a decent closer like Cody Allen?  Or stay away due to velo/health concerns?

Paul Sporer: I would not be buying him. He was a big stayaway for me

Sean: A strategy I was pondering: Don’t start any starting pitchers in April! Seriously April performances are unpredictable. Wait for the metrics to stabilize before making roster decisions. You’ll miss out on the pickups of the year…but you won’t have to deal with the busts killing your ratios either!

Paul Sporer: that punts wins and Ks and ruins any chance of winning

Loogy: In a vacuum, Senzel or Gleyber?

Paul Sporer: Think Senzel is more fantasy relevant off the top

Vader: Who’s the next out-of-nowhere closer to emerge?

Paul Sporer: Nate Joooonnnneeesss

Mike M: Jarlin Garcia? Maybe?

Paul Sporer: Ehhh, maybe has super RP/swingman

DRAGONWAGON: Will DJ LeMahieu hit 20 home runs this year?

Dave: Thought Brad Johnson’s note on DJ LeMahieu’s batted ball profile this morning was interesting… buying him as a potential breakout?

Paul Sporer: Always impressed when 2 ppl mention the same guy back to back in the queue

Paul Sporer: I’m keeping a close eye on it. I wish the FB jump was coming out of his GB rate, though. Still not putting in the air more when you looking FB+LD. But some extra punch with the big AVG would be huge

Barfield & Friends: Could Albies be the next Gordon Beckham?

Paul Sporer: You shut your mouth right now!!!!

Barfield & Friends: Alternate strategy: go all-in on April starts. April ERAs are the lowest of the year.

Brett: Cesar Hernandez– does his early aggressiveness on the basepaths lead to a top-10 2B in OBP leagues?

Paul Sporer: I came around on Hernandez this winter and really saw him as a big value who could pop 30 SB

GP: What do I do with Chris Archer? Try to get what I can right now?

Paul Sporer: You just have to ride it out

Connie Mac N’ Cheese: Looking to strengthen my starting pitching, does offering Archer and Margot for Severino make sense?

Paul Sporer: Ya that’d be OK to offer… not sure it’ll get accepted with Margot on the DL

David Peralta: This is my year.

Paul Sporer: That’d be cool!

Golden Girls Is On: I’m wondering if Chris Taylor is worth keeping as at least a Util

Paul Sporer: For now. Gonna have him in a future Sporer Report next week

Austin: Sell high on Gregory Polanco?

Paul Sporer: If you can really get something with like a top 5-6 round value, but I’m cool riding it out

Stew: Anything different about Swanson?

Paul Sporer: Mehhh

Paul Sporer: Discussed him in some detail on the pod – http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/the-sleeper-and-the-bust-episode-538-…

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I gotta roll. I hope you have a great weekend. Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Snapchat (psporer), and Twitch (psporer24) where I’ll be streaming MLB The Show later tonight. I’ll be back next week, though I think we’re going to move off Friday for the chat going forward, TBD on that

Paul Sporer: Also, I’m looking for the hot takes and unpopular opinions you really believe in:

 

Paul Sporer

@sporer

 

Alright y’all, I’m biting @Fantano’s excellent “Let’s Argue” concept for a solo pod. Leave your unpopular opinions… twitter.com/i/web/status/9…

11 Apr 2018

Paul Sporer: Peace.