The Daily Grind: DJ Flies

One guy ruled ’em all yesterday, and I’m going to write some stuff about him. No, not Jose Berrios.

AGENDA

1. TDG Invitational
2. Weather Reports
3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
4. SaberSim Says…
5. DJ Flies

1. The Daily Grind Invitational

Wow. I had five hitters zero out yesterday. New record worst… Only one of them, Tyler Wade, was a scrub. Where you at Jose Abreu, Treat Urner, Brett Gardner, and J.D. Martinez? Anywho, bgwig500 didn’t suffer from the same woes. He was the only user to lay claim to DJ LeMahieu’s 42 point performance. That combined with Jose Berrios was practically enough to win. Leaderboard.

After yesterday’s miniature contest, a 13 game slate is most welcome. See you on DraftKings.

PS – New users who deposit with my referral link get $20 bonus cash. I also get $20. It’s a win-win.

2. Weather Reports

The Midwest is threatened by storms. Chicago, Cleveland, and Detroit have a low risk of rain. Minnesota looks like a rain/snow out. Kansas also has possible storms all day. Check back later.

3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse

Main Slate: Big slate, gobs of mid-tier pitching. The top men available are Gerrit Cole ($12,100), Zack Greinke ($11,300), and Kenta Maeda ($10,000). Cole is well worth the price of admission opposite a declining Cole Hamels ($9,100). I’m hands off for Greinke at this price. It’s just too much for a good pitcher who’s lost three mph on his fastball. Maeda might be worth a dice roll though. Did I mention Greinke is visiting Maeda?

The next two priciest pitchers are also opposite one another. Mike Clevinger ($9,500) is hosting Marcus Stroman ($9,300). I’ll pass on Stroman. Clevinger has some value as a volatility play.

Eduardo Rodriguez ($8,500) will be very popular tonight. He’s affordable, strikes out more than a batter per inning, and is opposed by the Chris Tillman dumpster fire. The Orioles offense is also strikeout prone. It all adds up.

Andrew Triggs ($7,700) has looked great in the early going. Short outings could be his downfall. I also kind of like his opponent, Mike Leake ($6,400) to perform similarly for $1,300 less.

If the Twins and White Sox play, the weather conditions should heavily favor Lance Lynn’s ($7,500) fastball heavy approach. It worked last week. Opposite is Reynaldo Lopez ($7,200) a hyped pitcher I expect to regress.

Jordan Montgomery ($7,100) draws a busted Tigers lineup. The cold weather could mess with his command of a deep repertoire.

Andrew Heaney returns to the land of the living. And he costs just $5,900. He tossed 6.1 innings in a rehab outing so he shouldn’t be too constrained.

Stack Targets: Tillman, Dillon Peters, Jason Hammel, Jake Faria, Ty Blach, Mike Fiers, Kyle Freeland

Of the stackables, Hammel and Faria are probably most likely to turn in a surprisingly strong outing and thus ruin your hopes and dreams.

4. SaberSim Says…

Cole, ERod, Tanner Roark, Greinke, and Clevinger are the top rated pitchers. I kind of worry about Roark against the Rockies. They have enough fly ball hitters and oppo-contact guys to punish him. Top values include Faria, Tyson Ross, Chad Kuhl, and Steven Matz. The big names reside atop the hitter list – Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Judge, Mike Trout, Brian Dozier, and Trea Turner. Most of the top values are Twins, but they probably won’t play.

5. DJ Flies

Something is different about DJ LeMahieu. Can you guess? He’s popped four home runs in 64 plate appearances. His career best power total is 11 big flies in 635 plate appearances. In the Statcast era, he’s one of the worst regulars at barreling up the baseball. His combination of oppo-slappy hitting and possibly elite plate discipline has carried his career.

It’s important to exercise caution when viewing the following stats. You know, small samples.

If that’s too small to read on your screen, it’s just his batted ball data. To this point, he’s traded line drives for fly balls. It would be preferable to also trade some grounders for line drives. The biggest change is in his pulled and oppo contact. He’s always been an opposite field hitter, so much so that some teams put on a unique oppo-shift for him.

More pulled, fly ball contact from LeMahieu is a very good thing. Although his stat sheet reads like a 5’8” Marco Scutaro clone, LeMahieu is usually one of the biggest guys on the field. So far, he’s hitting well without giving up his elite contact and plate discipline (2.5% SwStr%, 12.5% K%, 10.9% BB%).

He’s already well on his way to replicating or bettering his superb 2016 campaign. I’m leaning towards buying high. For DFS purposes, he’s going to find his way into an awful lot of my lineups.