Yep, that’s right. It’s bold predictions season. Unless you’re a newbie, you already know how this game is played. I predict 10 things I think are plausible but unlikely to happen. I’ll be aiming for a 20 to 30 percent success rate. You comment about how I wasn’t bold.

Last year, I did an informal experiment. I found I was more accurate when making negative predictions. Thus, to increase the difficulty level, here are 10 positive predictions.

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The 2018 Pod Projections are now available! For the first time, the package includes NFBC ADP, along with all historical Pod-developed xMetrics. My projections are based on the methodology shared in my eBook Projecting X 2.0, and the process continues to evolve and improve (thanks Statcast!).

2018 Pod Projections Index:
Shohei Ohtani
Tommy Pham
Whit Merrifield

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Our staff composite rankings are back! We’re onto shortstop and we’ll be rolling out a new position each day over the next week-plus. I will still be doing my commentary by position rankings to give a quick little thought, but those will be separate posts.

We’re using Yahoo! eligibility requirements which is 5 starts or 10 appearances. These rankings assume the standard 5×5 categories and a re-draft league. If we forgot someone, please let us know in the comments and we’ll make sure he’s added for the updates. If you have questions for a specific ranker on something he did, let us know in the comments. We can also be reached via Twitter:

• Paul Sporer
• Jeff Zimmerman
• Mike Podhorzer
• Justin Mason

There will be differences, sharp differences, within the rankings. The rankers have different philosophies when it comes to ranking, some of which you’re no doubt familiar with through previous iterations. Of course the idea that we’d all think the same would be silly because then what would be the point of including multiple rankers?! Think someone should be higher or lower? Make a case. Let us know why you think that. The chart is sortable. If a ranker didn’t rank someone that the others did, he was given that ranker’s last rank +1.

Key:

• AVG– just the average of the seven ranking sets
• Adj. AVG– the average minus the high and low rankings
• SPLIT– the difference between the high and low rankings

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With ottoneu auctions in full swing, and just over two weeks before the season begins, I wanted to take a look at how I plan out my rosters both before/during an auction and heading into the season. I use a mix of the typical ottoneu auction results and the number of players I feel put me in the best position to meet games and innings caps in my “rubric”. Without further ado, here’s my breakdown:

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On Monday, CBS Sports’ Chris Towers took to Twitter to put a bit of a scare into Aaron Judge’s hype-men and -women, posting the following set of images:

*whispers* less than most people are pretending pic.twitter.com/fUsNuMfRTn

— ADP Boy (@CTowersCBS) March 12, 2018

Frankly, I loved it. This word is overused, but, alas: it certainly “triggered” some of his followers. Folks were quick to defend Judge, shielding him from the likenesses he shares with Chris Davis that might, in some version of the near future, manifest in a similar player trajectory. Granted, much of praise for Judge was warranted; an additional 8 percentage points of walks elevates his floor a bit higher than Davis’. Fact of the matter, though, is Judge’s power has few modern comps — namely, Davis, Giancarlo Stanton, Ryan Howard. And I’ve compared Stanton to Howard more than once, so the four of them share the same curiously constructed boat.

What caught my attention, though, aside from the similarities between Judge and Davis that are far more striking than most are willing to admit, is, perhaps surprisingly, the doubles column. In Davis’ monster 2014 campaign, he hit 17 more extra-base hits than Judge did in 2017. Seventeen! That’s no small number. And it got me thinking: a ratio of 52 home runs to 24 doubles is actually kind of alarming. They (whoever “they” are) say a season with lots of doubles but fewer home runs than expected portends more power in the following season. Testing that wisdom, conventional or not, is outside the scope of this post. What I’d rather test is the inverse: does a season with lots of home runs but few doubles (or, generally, other extra-base hits) portend less power?

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On Monday, we launched Fantasy Baseball Week on The Hardball Times, and I started things off by researching whether last season’s breakouts were solid investments the following year. Spoiler alert: they are actually terrible investments. Of course, that’s as a group. That means that not every breakout from the previous season is going to fall flat the following year. So let’s discuss some of the big breakouts from last season and try to figure out whether they end up as part of the poor investment bust group or hold onto their gains.

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We posted our 2B rankings today and I posted my commentary rankings of the position about a month ago. There are some differences between the two and I could’ve probably made even more as I really agonized over some of the slotting. It just speaks to the depth of second base. I can definitely see myself getting my middle infielder from 2B, too. Let’s take a closer look.

The Top

Jose Altuve obviously stands alone as the top dog and there’s no real need to delve too deeply into that. He’s entirely deserving on his slotting and has a very viable case for the top pick ahead of Mike Trout.

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The transcript is up. I wasn’t grumpy.

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Our staff composite rankings are back! We’re onto the middle infield with the keystone, a position I find to be remarkably deep. I will still be doing my commentary by position rankings to give a quick little thought, but those will be separate posts.

We’re using Yahoo! eligibility requirements which is 5 starts or 10 appearances. These rankings assume the standard 5×5 categories and a re-draft league. If we forgot someone, please let us know in the comments and we’ll make sure he’s added for the updates. If you have questions for a specific ranker on something he did, let us know in the comments. We can also be reached via Twitter:

• Paul Sporer
• Jeff Zimmerman
• Mike Podhorzer
• Justin Mason

There will be differences, sharp differences, within the rankings. The rankers have different philosophies when it comes to ranking, some of which you’re no doubt familiar with through previous iterations. Of course the idea that we’d all think the same would be silly because then what would be the point of including multiple rankers?! Think someone should be higher or lower? Make a case. Let us know why you think that. The chart is sortable. If a ranker didn’t rank someone that the others did, he was given that ranker’s last rank +1.

You can also check out my 2B rankings with commentary here and a closer look at the position here.

Key:

• AVG– just the average of the seven ranking sets
• Adj. AVG– the average minus the high and low rankings
• SPLIT– the difference between the high and low rankings

—

Read the rest of this entry »

The 2018 Pod Projections are now available! For the first time, the package includes NFBC ADP, along with all historical Pod-developed xMetrics. My projections are based on the methodology shared in my eBook Projecting X 2.0, and the process continues to evolve and improve (thanks Statcast!).

2018 Pod Projections Index:
Shohei Ohtani
Tommy Pham

Read the rest of this entry »