Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 3/13/2018

The transcript is up. I wasn’t grumpy.

3:58

Brad Johnson: Ahoy there. Let’s get rolling.

3:58

jd: Are Corey Seagers injury concerns creating a huge value opportunity with his ADP around 40? He seems to be healthy and was raking before his injuries surfaced in 2017. Is there much a of a difference between seager and correa (ADP around 14) to justify this gap?

3:59

Brad Johnson: Valuing “injuries” is one of the highest risk/reward propositions in fantasy sports. I’m often eager to bet on players with perceived health issues.

4:00

Brad Johnson: Typically, the ADP penalty exceeds the actual risk of the injury. In the case of Seager, I’m not sure that’s true.

4:01

Brad Johnson: It’s not a good sign that the elbow is STILL an issue after an entire offseason.

4:01

Brad Johnson: I’m not comfortable expecting more than a repeat of his 2017 numbers, and those firmly belong around pick 35. I usually see him go pick 30 or earlier.

4:02

Big Tuna: How confident are you in Conforto after hearing he may play in a game next week?

4:02

Brad Johnson: Half grade increase from “hands off” to “would buy at favorable rate”

4:03

Brad Johnson: That’s so far behind where he’s actually going to be picked/valued though. I’m all but guaranteed to have 0 shares this year.

4:03

Brad Johnson: I don’t know what to do with his injury. We don’t have precedents to work with.

4:03

Big Tuna: Which closer are you most worried about losing his job? Familia?

4:03

Brad Johnson: Definitely not Familia. He’s one of my preferred value picks along with Morrow.

4:04

Brad Johnson: I’m not “most” worried about Hector Neris, but I’m pretty confident he’s a setup/middle reliever by the end of the season.

4:05

Brad Johnson: The most worrisome are guys who are presumed closers rather than named guys – Soria, Claudio, Bedrosian/Parker, etc. Rodney too I suppose.

4:05

Brad Johnson: Sean Doolittle has recurring shoulder issues and is qualitatively similar to Ryan Madson

4:06

Brad Johnson: Could name half the closers if you’d like…

4:06

Cronut Burger: What’s the earliest we can expect to see Eloy get called up?

4:06

Brad Johnson: I wouldn’t look for fantasy production from Eloy this season. Might get something like 2017 Calhoun.

4:06

Brad Johnson: Sometime after the Super 2 cutoff most likely.

4:06

rpo: Have to make a final keeper call this week- Berrios or Godley (same price)- who would you choose?

4:07

Brad Johnson: I’m choosing Godley, but I’ve been driving that bandwagon for a long time

4:07

Brad Johnson: I think we’ll continue to see inconsistency out of Berrios – flashes of brilliance mixed with bad fastball days

4:07

southcoast: Who is Wilmer Font?  Why so valuable on the FG auction calculator?

4:07

Brad Johnson: Ask Jeff Sullivan. Seriously, he’s written extensively about Font.

4:08

VAMPARINA: I traded Carrasco for Cole and Stroman in a keeper league with QS instead of W.  Am I dumb?

4:08

Brad Johnson: Nope, that’s a valid dice role. All 3 (prior to Stroman injury) had roughly equal chances to have the best season of the group

4:09

Brad Johnson: Carrasco is very good, but nobody should mistake him for a reliable asset. He has a minus fastball these days and a long history of health issues.

4:09

Tony: Thoughts on Willie Calhoun being demoted? Is it his shoddiness defensively, a way to keep him cheap, or both?

4:09

Brad Johnson: They’re looking to start Drew Robinson or Ryan Rua. My read is that the demotion is about 2 things.

4:10

Brad Johnson: 1. Maybe they get the extra year of club control. I doubt they’ll go out of their way to get it. Calhoun isn’t young enough for that to matter much. He’s already a DH. He’s probably a non-tender by the time he’s 28 or 29.

4:11

Brad Johnson: 2. The Rangers have constantly said positive things about Robinson. But he still doesn’t look like more than a 3.5 OFer. Keeping Calhoun out of the way is a decent excuse to get an extended look at Robinson to decide if he can develop more or is developed enough to be a useful piece.

4:12

Brad Johnson: That’s the narrative I would be touting if I was a Rangers beat writer.

4:12

ChiSox: Who wins the closer’s gig for the White Sox?

4:13

Brad Johnson: 75% Soria. It’s just easier to go with the vet on a fixed contract. Jones is definitely worth owning until we hear for certain. Ignore Minaya. You don’t want him even if he’s closing.

4:13

Mario Mendoza: Why no love for Jeimer? I’m seeing a hitting profile not all that unlike Bregman or Andujar

4:14

Brad Johnson: He probably deserves more love. The modest power and lack of speed make him kind of like a poor man’s Ben Zobrist though. And that’s already a poor man’s profile of some flavor.

4:14

Brad Johnson: What’s Zobrist the poor man of these days?

4:14

Big Tuna: Are there any spec closers you’re taking a flyer on late in drafts in the hopes they win a job? Bearclaw? Minter? Kela?

4:15

Brad Johnson: I wrote an article about Brad Boxberger and Yoshihisa Hirano. DBacks have some good reasons to keep Bradley out of closer duty.

4:15

Brad Johnson: I’m told there are cookies in the kitchen. Excuse me.

4:16

Brad Johnson: They weren’t for me 🙁

4:16

Ryan: You feel good about Ken Giles this year? Would Devenski be next in line if Giles falters?

4:17

Brad Johnson: Yes, with the caveat that Giles always seems to have a bad month per season. And the Astros are not very patient about it.

4:17

Brad Johnson: No telling who’s next in line at this point. Dev should be in the mix though.

4:18

Matt: Yo. No cookies unless they’re digital cookies. This is chat time. WTF, mate?!

4:18

todd: How big of an impact will Arizona new park factors have on Arizona pitchers?  Is Ray a legit ace now?

4:19

Brad Johnson: Ray was an ace without the humidor. I don’t have any special insight. I’m seeing some bold claims from some seemingly robust methods. I’m still skeptical the effect will be as massive as estimated.

4:19

Brad Johnson: Andrew Perpetua has a lot on the topic.

4:19

Guest: Who has more value this year….Howie Kendrick or Tim Beckham?

4:19

Brad Johnson: Beckham seems destined to play more. Kendrick is still a better player.

4:19

Brad Johnson: I think

4:20

Brad Johnson: Admittedly, Beckham is hard to evaluate – I did his player page.

4:20

Daniel Castro: Love and kisses from your favorite prospect! Mwah.

4:20

Brad Johnson: Where’s my shirt?

4:20

Brad Johnson: 🙁

4:20

Ballpark Frank: Who would you rather have this year Gardner or Hicks?

4:21

Brad Johnson: Hicks for now. That’s a risky outfield to invest in if you’re counting on playing time

4:21

RK: I get the lack of precedent conern on his shoulder, but if he’s back, he’s going to be a top 10 OF…that’s way worth the risk of where he’s going -100 picks IMO.  He’s been 9th already from 15′-17′ https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=of&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=90…

4:21

Brad Johnson: Strong assumptions…

4:22

Brad Johnson: Using smallish sample wRC+ isn’t convincing me to ignore regression.

4:22

Brad Johnson: So we have to consider the following…

4:23

Brad Johnson: 1. Normal regression – his production to date is 10-25% above what we should expect

4:23

Brad Johnson: 2. Injury rust/digression – his production is negatively affected by the injury in the form of lessened talent, shaky mechanics, fatigue, etc.

4:23

Humidor Me: If the humidor does have a huge effect, isn’t it likely that they scrap it or dial it down so it is not so extreme?

4:24

Brad Johnson: Not in-season. They can’t set it however they like. The league is heavily involved in that process. More likely, they just like Chase play like a pitcher’s park

4:24

Bobby Cox: Who do you like among the young Braves starters this year and beyond?  Folty and Newcomb have looked good in spring training so far but Gohara is hurt.  Fried on the bubble?  Prospect guys love Wright, Soroka and Anderson.

4:25

Brad Johnson: I haven’t been watching their guys this spring. Soroka is definitely interesting though. They’re kinda like the more physically talented version of the Phillies staff – a lot of throw ’em at the wall guys. Some will stick. Hard to guess who.

4:26

Jason: Better lottery ticket: M. Brantley or R. McMahon

4:26

Brad Johnson: Gimme Brantley. Roster comp matters though.

4:26

FaRt: Who has a bigger season this year, Domingo, Mazara, Bux or Souza?

4:27

Brad Johnson: I’ll go Buxton. The stolen base floor is very valuable. Jeff Z claims a SB is worth 2 HR. Buxton, if healthy, is an easy 30 SB guy with 20 HR ability tacked on for good measure.

4:27

Brad Johnson: So 80 HR per Jeff’s math? Souza’s the only guy who can touch that.

4:28

Brad Johnson: And only if Buxton starts really flailing again

4:28

Sandy Ravage: Bannister says Deshields will be the everyday CF and lead off. Is it crazy to think he could steal 50+ bases?

4:28

Brad Johnson: Nope. Should be a borderline top 100 pick.

4:28

Brad Johnson: Can justify pushing top 75

4:29

Brad Johnson: Honestly, I’d be picking him in the 40s if I didn’t think I could sleep on him

4:29

Brad Johnson: That’ll change

4:29

Big Tuna: You still buying shares of Calhoun after the demotion? When do you think he’s up?

4:29

Brad Johnson: Yes, I doubt he’s down for more than a month.

4:29

Nick: What is the ceiling for Ozzie Albies this year?

4:29

Brad Johnson: What he did last year over a full season

4:29

Guest: 12-team HtH (5 OFs) I have no SPs or OFs.  Do I go Archer or Buxton with my rd 5 pick?

4:30

Brad Johnson: Buxton is my pick.

4:30

Jimmy: Do you know when the SP consensus rankings are coming out?

4:30

Brad Johnson: After the other positions? Probably next week. I’ve bowed out of rankings this year. I hate ’em.

4:30

Big Tuna: Re closers: What makes Familia a favorite “buy low” for you?

4:31

Brad Johnson: When he returned last year, everything that made him a borderline elite closer in previous years was present. Command was shakier than normal, but can bet on that being rust.

4:31

Brad Johnson: Now stop asking interesting questions Tuna so I can answer other people.

4:32

Brad Johnson: I usually don’t notice if I’m responding to the same person repeatedly until after I do it.

4:32

Kerry: Any reason to hold Gregerson in shallow formats?

4:32

Brad Johnson: He might close? Might as well find out. The oblique injury seems to be a “soft” grade 1 strain.

4:33

RK: 2016 was regression in the sample no?  I get there is risk but no way it’s past pick 100 risk IMO

4:33

Brad Johnson: I assume this was re: The Shields

4:34

Brad Johnson: He’s going to quickly go from easy value target to requiring a bold “reach” above the ADP

4:34

Big Tuna: I have the 3rd pick in an OPS league and am hearing that the guys at #2 wants to take Arenado. Do I jump on Altuve at #3 even in OPS settings?

4:34

Brad Johnson: Yes.

4:34

Brad Johnson: I did that one because it was so easy to answer.

4:34

Charles Johnson: Who is the $1 Catcher with the highest upside?

4:36

Brad Johnson: I like Kurt Suzuki and Andrew Knapp as my reachy catchers. Suzuki joined the air ball revolution is a sustainable-looking way.

4:37

Brad Johnson: Knapp has that hard ground ball contact profile we see work for speedsters but not plodders. But Yonder Alonso learned how to hit fly balls. Maybe Knapp can too. He’s outplaying Cameron Rupp for the second catcher spot in Philly.

4:38

Brad Johnson: Notably, Alfaro is unlikely to play more than 60%, especially once it becomes apparent that he’s Joey Gallo with less power and way too many GBs.

4:38

Brad Johnson: Knapp could be starting by May

4:38

Brad Johnson: We’re talking very deep leagues of course. In a shallower format, Chirinos or Martin should be free.

4:39

Jon: Are you warm or cold on McMahon? Recent article suggested he’s trying to win a spot, which is down from his assumed starting. Plus CarGo now. Too much $ for Desmond to sit much?

4:39

Brad Johnson: luke warm. They want to evaluate him, but there isn’t a job at the moment. Unless they ditch Desmond

4:39

Lars: You buying the DeShields helium?

4:39

Brad Johnson: Yea, he’s a legit 2 category monster.

4:40

Brad Johnson: batting average won’t hurt either. AL leadoffs even have decent RBI totals, and he can pop upwards of 10 HR.

4:40

Ace Robbie Ray: 40% hard hit, 85% LOB, 1:1 FB/GB…3.7 fip last year is the same as 2016 (4.9 era/1.5 whip).  How will he avoid being the biggest bust of 2018?

4:40

Brad Johnson: By missing a billion bats.

4:40

CW: Thoughts on Greinke and velo? Trying to trade for him in a keeper league, the guy wants Blackmon back. Already have Strasburg on my P staff.

4:41

Brad Johnson: We’ve been here before with Greinke. I almost feel like he’s trolling us now. Although I’m comfortable buying, it should be at a discount given the news. He’s like 60% of a Blackmon.

4:41

Matt: How you feelin’ ’bout Lamet this season? Can he man the back of a rotation?

4:42

Brad Johnson: Oh man, maximum volatility. He’s legit trying to figure out how to start. I’ve always assumed he’d move into the bullpen as an ace reliever.

4:42

Brad Johnson: Keeps cycling through new pitches though. Maybe he finds something to neutralized LHHs

4:42

Jason C.: Albies, Happ, or Moncada in an OPS+ TB keep forever?

4:42

Brad Johnson: yes, all of them.

4:43

Miles from somewhere: Trade my Votto $24 for Bregman $12 and Benintendi $12?

4:43

Brad Johnson: Eh… not my favorite win-now move but if you can keep those guys cheaply for a long time, I’d do it.

4:43

Brad Johnson: Votto will find a cliff before too long.

4:43

HappyFunBall: DeShields as a 4th OF or fill my catcher spot with the last available useful player (Gattis) at pick 97 ?  Or door #3 … probably some random pitcher?

4:43

Brad Johnson: DeShields would be my pick.

4:43

To the mallex: Is mallex smith the poor man’s billy Hamilton?

4:44

Brad Johnson: More or less.

4:44

Brad Johnson: Hold! Noah Syndergaard is trending…

4:44

Brad Johnson: Oh, he’s just the OD starter

4:44

Brad Johnson: whew

4:44

Brad Johnson: I panic anytime a Met I own is trending on twitter

4:44

Brad Johnson: 250% chance it’s an injury

4:44

Stumpy: Is a $1 Brad Hand a better keeper than $1 Alex Wood or $17 Degrom?

4:45

Brad Johnson: Yes, Wood. No, deGrom.

4:45

Dick Bradley: I’m seriously tempted to move Blackmon for Lindor. Wise move?

4:45

Brad Johnson: Keeper league? Sure. Blackmon’s the better player for 2018

4:45

Ian Desmond: Does Car Go put my job at risk?

4:45

Brad Johnson: Ish

4:46

Brad Johnson: Only if you suck

4:46

RK: that was regarding conforto not shields

4:46

Brad Johnson: re: a previous discussion

4:46

Dever Fever: Some lineup projections show devers hitting 4th. Would be great for counting stats. Think he is going too early, late, or pretty on par with where his ADP should be? Thanks!

4:47

Brad Johnson: He’s a tad tricky

4:47

Brad Johnson: I kinda want to comp him to Nomar Mazara even though they’re dissimilar in many ways

4:47

Brad Johnson: He’s a power hitter who probably won’t hit for enough power the next few seasons

4:48

LetHerEat: How many HR will Jose Ramirez hit this season?

4:48

Brad Johnson: 18?

4:48

Brad Johnson: 22?

4:48

LetHerEat: why would i pick Jose Ramirez over George Springer?

4:48

Brad Johnson: Better category balance, position flexibility

4:48

Mc: 12th and final keeper, dynasty:Sano or Rivero ?

4:48

Brad Johnson: Sano

4:49

Brad Johnson: Love Rivero but if it’s a dynasty you can’t bet on a RP retaining value into the future.

4:49

Top Wings: If stroman misses extend time, is that still a good deal for VAMPIRINA?

4:49

Brad Johnson: Deal was mentioned near the beginning of the chat – believe it was Carrasco for Stroman/Cole. Yes. I think it’s still reasonable.

4:50

Brad Johnson: I seem to recall the standard I was asked to judge was “is this crazy”

4:50

Brad Johnson: it was not

4:50

LAD: Puk on your long term keeper radar?

4:50

Brad Johnson: Sure.

4:50

Brad Johnson: 15-year-old Miguel Tejada Jr is on my long term radar too

4:51

Brad Johnson: prospects are assets. It’s easier to collect profiles rather than specific players

4:51

Nick: Jake in Philly…. Should I celebrate or mourn?

4:51

Brad Johnson: I wrote an entire article about this yesterday 🙁

4:51

Sonny: How are you feeling about Xander in 2018, regardless of ADP?

4:51

Brad Johnson: Pretty damned good.

4:51

Brad Johnson: Great early-round buy low

4:52

Adolfo: Would you rather have a $21 Robbie Ray, or a $31 JD Martinez?

4:52

Brad Johnson: JDM me

4:52

Derek: What pick # would you target the follow players that are starting on the DL:  Reyes, Conforto, Salazar.

4:52

Brad Johnson: That’s not how I think about picking these guys. It’s a matter of them being the best player on the board for my roster.

4:53

Brad Johnson: That could be pretty early or never depending on the format and how the draft is progressing

4:53

Moltar: Plawecki is the $1 catcher with the highest upside. If he maintains his gains from last season and stays healthy, he’ll get the starting job in Queens and be a pretty decent value. Just don’t ask about the downside!

4:53

Brad Johnson: If we’re ignoring downside, I have a long list of guys better than Plawecki

4:54

Another Jon: Taking a flyer on Harvey this year?

4:54

Brad Johnson: Sure. Very late. Like around Daniel Mengden but after Brandon McCarthy

4:54

Matt: What are your thoughts on being able to trade for the futures on current player’s first born in dynasty leagues? Thinking I can get a good deal if I buy into Trout’s first born. Preferably before birth, value is probably better.

4:55

Brad Johnson: My deepest league digs pretty deeply into the amateur well. I… do not have the patience to develop those players.

4:55

LAD: Is snark a prerequisite for baseball bloggers or do most guys despise chatting with readers?

4:56

Brad Johnson: You don’t have your BA in Snark? Why are you allowed on the internet? I was always told we had to graduate or no internet for us

4:56

Brad Johnson: I actually don’t recall being snarky today 🙂

4:56

Brian: ARI closer, how many saves you see for box, archie, and hirano?

4:57

Brad Johnson: Let’s say 40 for the team, 18, 11, 11 is my current estimate.

4:57

Brad Johnson: respectively

4:57

Brad Johnson: that’s bad math

4:57

Brad Johnson: fixed

4:57

Brian: Last keeper:  Inciarte or JP Crawford in an OBP?

4:57

Brad Johnson: Inciarte

4:58

Matt: Due to your profession, its likely that you have immersed yourself in the sport enough to dilute your team-fandom a bit. For the rest of us bubble-livers, how do you balance rival hatred?

4:58

Brad Johnson: Story time!

4:58

Brad Johnson: I grew up a Phillies fan

4:58

Brad Johnson: when they won the World Series in 2008, I was attending a liberal arts college in Minnesota. Few of my friends cared about baseball so I mostly watched the games by myself.

4:59

Brad Johnson: When they won that split-game 5, I was getting ready to go to work. Didn’t so much as pump my fist. It was then I realized I had lost my team allegiance.

5:00

Brad Johnson: Was a really weird moment in my life.

5:00

Brad Johnson: Surreal

5:01

Brad Johnson: Anyway, hating your rivals probably supplies at least half of your joie de vivre. So just lean into it.

5:01

Brian: Goldie worth Acuna and Bregman in a keeper, or too much

5:01

Brad Johnson: Seems fine to me without knowing more

5:01

Mr Brickma: Will you be owning any Phillies SP shares after Nola/Arrieta?

5:02

Brad Johnson: Probably not. Just because I tend to shore up my hitters around that portion of the draft.

5:03

Piraates: Which non-taillon pirates starter would you roster in nl only?

5:03

Brad Johnson: All of them

5:03

Brad Johnson: I like Williams. Kuhl has some potential as a cheapy. Glasnow could breakout. Might already have done.

5:03

Brad Johnson: Nova is fine volume

5:03

Brian: OBP keeper:  Judge or Machado?

5:04

Brad Johnson: I’m supposed to say Machado. I totally buy Judge though.

5:04

frankzapato: Hi Brad – I traded Trout ($40), Bauer ($7) and Richards ($7) for Lindor ($11), Happ ($7) and Schwarber ($13) in a $300 dynasty where $150 of salaries can be kept.  Am I an idiot to trade trout?

5:04

Brad Johnson: I would not have done that, but it’s a better value than I can get for him in slightly deeper formats.

5:05

Moltar: I for one enjoy complaining about your attitude in this free baseball advice forum on this free website which I can choose to view or not

5:05

Piraates: Nicer campus: Carleton or macalester college?

5:06

Brad Johnson: Depends on what you want from a campus. If you like a view of farm lands in the background, Carleton is for you. I think I liked the feel of Mac a lot more.

5:06

Brad Johnson: I’m not biased.

5:06

SparkyMcguffy: Who do I get for holds late in the draft?

5:06

Brad Johnson: Ryan Madson

5:06

Brad Johnson: Steve Cishek

5:06

Brad Johnson: Super boring, good relievers

5:06

Brian: how many starts you see peacock and salazar getting?

5:06

Brad Johnson: I’ll say 6 to 9 for Peacock and 20+ for Salazar

5:06

Hans: I get the DeShields enthusiasm, but you’re really gonna push top 50 chips against a guy will meager power and probably can’t hit?  Might as well grab Mallex Smith at the end for free.  Same guy, no?

5:07

Brad Johnson: No. Mallex may struggle to scrape 200 PA. DeShields basically has 650 in the bag if he performs as projected or better. And better is probably his actual median.

5:07

Brad Johnson: We take Dee Gordon top 30

5:08

Brad Johnson: DeShields is pretty similar with less track record

5:08

Brad Johnson: better rounded too

5:08

frankzapato: Springer/Strasburg or Correa/Nola?

5:08

Brad Johnson: Strasburg

5:08

Brad Johnson: close to a push

5:09

DeTime for DeShields?: Just caught up on the Deshields talk – I’m right there with you.  Seems re: my earlier Q that you would prefer keeping a $4 Deshields to a $4 Godley?  To put it a different way, between 2 guys you love in Godley and Deshields, who goes for more $$$ at auction?

5:09

Brad Johnson: DeShields

5:09

jd: Piggybacking an earlier questions: Thoughts on musgrove as an SP this season?

5:09

Brad Johnson: With the injury, I’m calling him a reliever. He already needed to shoulder his way into the rotation. No injury pun intended.

5:09

E: With Zona’s new humidor, will I be able to store my cigars there?

5:09

Brad Johnson: If you own the team…

5:10

tacopocket: got a few players who get a significant bump in an OBP league instead of Average?

5:10

Brad Johnson: Here’s a leaderboard of OBP. Find the guys with low batting average

5:10

Brad Johnson: (I see the snark that time)

5:12

Brad Johnson: Rizzo, Carp, EE, Suarez, Yonder, Santana, Thames, Morrison, Souza to name a few

5:12

Brad Johnson: not so sure about those last 2

5:12

Janet: who would you rather have for the next 5 years in an OBP league Buxton or Sano?

5:12

Brad Johnson: Buxton

5:12

Brad Johnson: I hesitated, but I’ll still take the SBs

5:12

Vegan Man!: Taillon or Matt Olson in a 14 team dynasty points league? Thanks!

5:12

Brad Johnson: Leaning Olson

5:12

JD Martin: I want to see a world where Dan Vogelbach is more than just a large adult son

5:13

Brad Johnson: I want to see the Mariners trade for and start Tommy Joseph

5:13

Brian: you think jorge polanco can continue his 2nd half breakout? he has at least 15/15 in him right

5:13

Brad Johnson: That’s a possible outcome, yes

5:13

JD15: Carleton campus more spread out and green. Im also not biased. Shouts out the MIAC

5:13

Brad Johnson: “Spread out” does not interact well with “Minnesota winter.”

5:14

Brad Johnson: I liked not going outside for months at a time because everything is linked by tunnels

5:14

Jazzhole: You were down on Glasnow last year. What’s changed?

5:14

Brad Johnson: I still have serious reservations about his short term value. Offseasons can restore some hope about issues like command.

5:14

Brian: Greeks or Romans?

5:14

Brad Johnson: The Romans have better TV

5:15

Brad Johnson: i.e. Rome

5:15

Justin: Calhoun, Andujar, Torres? 12 team h2h keep 23 forever. Am I right to think Andujar is the first one to cut if I need depth for this year?

5:15

Brad Johnson: Yes

5:15

Brad Johnson: I do like Andujar though

5:15

Brad Johnson: Kind of a shame nobody signed Walker

5:16

Larry: Hearing all this DeShields talk and I just traded him for Gerrit Cole in 10-team mixed.  Did I screw up???

5:16

Brad Johnson: You can’t screw up in 10 team mixed

5:16

Jason C.: Yairo Munoz

5:16

Brad Johnson: St. Louis Cardinals

5:16

Dever Fever: Do you have any guys that consistently are targeting in drafts? Not necessarily studs just guys you seem to value more than others for one reason or another

5:16

Brad Johnson: So here’s what happens. I have a few guys who flood my keeper/dynasty rosters

5:17

Brad Johnson: Nearly all of my teams are keeper/dynasty

5:17

Brad Johnson: when it comes time to do my few re-drafts, I pointedly select different players

5:17

Brad Johnson: Diversifying the portfolio

5:18

Brad Johnson: I have way too many shares of Taylor, Godley, Paxton, Morton, Yonder, Story, Blackmon, and a few others

5:18

Brad Johnson: One guy I’ll consistently target is Aaron Sanchez because he’s like 100 picks below where he should go.

5:18

Brian: Let’s talk positive about Josh Hader!  Shouldn’t he get a chance to start?

5:18

Brad Johnson: Nope.

5:19

Brad Johnson: I see him as very similar to Sean Doolittle

5:19

Brad Johnson: I want him in late-inning relief

5:19

Brad Johnson: I’m going to start wrapping up.

5:19

Puppy Dog Pals: What do you do if a guy in your league is always making terrible trade offers?

5:20

Brad Johnson: heckle him

5:20

Doc McStuffins: Can I make a profit on Castellanos at $12?

5:20

Brad Johnson: It’s possible

5:20

Phillies Outfield Situation: Any thoughts on how PT is divided between Nick Williams and Altherr?  Either one attractive long-term?

5:21

Brad Johnson: 70/30 initially. Hot hand to be involved. I like the idea of using Altherr against good pitchers and Williams against bad pitchers

5:21

Brad Johnson: Not sure they’re taking my advice though

5:21

E: “You can’t screw up in 10 team mixed” Are these type of leagues below you or something?

5:22

Brad Johnson: I know I should say “no” here but the players on the waiver wire are so good that the draft is almost irrelevant.

5:23

Brad Johnson: It’s entirely about managing, streaming decisions, and luck.

5:23

Brad Johnson: Which is basically true of most leagues now that I think of it

5:23

Ken: Say you head into a keeper auction with significantly more money in your purse than the other teams – what’s your favorite way to lean on that advantage?

5:24

Brad Johnson: Buy all the good players

5:24

Kevin: But Hader can be a multi inning dominant reliever, yes?

5:24

Brad Johnson: Yea. A one-time through the order guy

5:24

Brad Johnson: Let’s call that an OTTO. Has anyone coined that yet?

5:25

Brad Johnson: Seems super obvious

5:25

Brad Johnson: Definitely going to be a common role

5:25

Matt: You on board the Jordan Montgomery train? I’m the conductor, coal shoveller and drink-car bartender. Am I over indexed?

5:25

Brad Johnson: Very much on board. Would love for him to discard that sinker though…

5:25

Dillon: Man, why are you always so cranky?

5:26

Brad Johnson: Ha. I’ve been enjoying myself. I think you need to try reading my comments with a different mental filter. It’s all banter

5:26

Brad Johnson: On that note, good game folks. I’ll see most of you next week.

5:27

Vegan Man!: Is Ozuna and Luke Weaver too much for Corey Seager in a 14 team dynasty points league?

5:27

Brad Johnson: No, it is not

5:27

Drewfus: Is Brian Dozier just as valuable as Jose Ramirez in an OPS league?

5:27

Brad Johnson: Still prefer JoRam by a bit

5:27

Matt: Who do I talk to about getting my investment back? I know I didn’t pay for this, but I’d at least like that 86 minutes of my life back. Would that be Szymborski?

5:27

Brad Johnson: yes

5:28

Brad Johnson: That’s @DSzymborki

5:28

Justin: Thanks for answering my question. I appreciate it. The league is down on rookies so its hard to trade them. Hate cutting Andujar.

5:28

Brad Johnson: Congrats, you found the only league that doesn’t overvalue youth

We hoped you liked reading Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 3/13/2018 by Brad Johnson!

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carter
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carter

Correct me if I am wrong, but didn’t the Mets say they are going to do a committee bullpen?