Archive for March, 2018

The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 531 – Trust Your RotoGut!

3/12/18

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 19, the best baseball strategy game ever made – available NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms! Go to ootpdevelopments.com to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER19!

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Notable Transactions/Rumors/Articles/Game Play

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Spring Training Notes (3/12/18) Diaz, Bush, Montgomery, & South Side Closer

Indians

The Indians have no desire to raise Yandy Diaz’s launch angle.

But the chanting for Diaz to put a few degrees of lift into his swing is not coming from manager Terry Francona and the Indians.

“The best way to mess him up is to try to get him to pull the ball in the air,” Francona told reporters in Goodyear, Ariz. “He won’t be the hitter he is. We know that.”

Diaz’s body builder’s physique is trapped inside the swing of a No.2 hitter. In Cuba, where he learned to play, he usually hit second. His right-handed swing is grooved to hit the hole between first and second base to advance the runner on first.

But no matter how hard Diaz hits the ball, the infield shift has largely neutralized his swing. Last season Diaz hit .263 (41-for-156) with no homers and 13 RBI. Nine of his hits went for extra bases.

Well great. No improvement here.

Rangers

Matt Bush is headed back to the bullpen after attempting starting.

Instead, Bush will be used as a reliever who will serve as a “bridge” in the middle innings and can pitch one-plus innings. Bush has been used strictly as a reliever in his first two seasons with the Rangers.

“We just feel that Matt is way too important to us in the bullpen,” manager Jeff Banister said. “Just his set of pitches, how he pitches, so we feel like that’s the best move for him as well as us as a team trying to structure the bullpen the best way we possibly can going forward.”

Bush may still be a nice pickup as a cheap middle reliever with a 100 IP workload.

White Sox

The White Sox are going to keep everyone guessing who’s going to be their opening-day closer.

Even with the experienced pair of Soria and Jones in tow, Renteria didn’t want to limit his closing options. He mentioned returning White Sox Juan Minaya, Gregory Infante and Danny Farquhar as players who saw high-leverage time last season. Chicago also has non-roster options such as Bruce Rondon, Jeanmar Gomez, Robbie Ross Jr. and has Luis Avilan — also acquired in the Soria trade — as options on the back end.

“I don’t want to tie myself down and say we won’t ultimately have a Minaya closing out a ballgame or an Infante or a Farquhar or whoever it might be in a particular situation, but I do know that those two young men have experience and have done it,” Renteria said. “Nate’s coming back healthy, capable of doing a lot of different things. Fortunately for us, our flexibility has improved. Through either experience, we’re gaining from the guys we have that fell into that role last year and the two men that are with us in Joakim and Nate.

I’m only going to target either Nate Jones or Joakim Soria. They’re projected for the best stats (about 10 K/9 and 3.50 ERA). I’ll prefer Jones and his 0.00 ERA with Soria posting one at 18.00 ERA. I’m betting on the White Sox playing the hot hand.

Yankees

Unless he completely falls apart, Jordan Montgomery will be given a Yankees rotation spot to start the season.

Coming off a campaign in which he paced all American League rookies in starts, strikeouts and innings pitched, Jordan Montgomery has all but secured his place in the rotation, manager Aaron Boone said.

Montgomery, whose next start will come on Sunday against the Marlins, has limited opponents to one run on five hits in 8 2/3 Grapefruit League innings (1.04 ERA). Boone said on Friday that he sees the fifth rotation spot as belonging to Montgomery.

“I viewed him as very much a front-runner for that spot,” Boone said. “We e really excited about not only the year he put together last year, but where we think he can continue to go. When I look at him, I look at him as one of our starters.”

He’s now a wild card heading into the season and these readings have me moving him down in my rankings.


Catcher Rankings with Commentary

I’m still continuing my commentary rankings even as we start releasing our Composite Rankings. These Average Draft Positions come from our projection pages. Each colored bar represents the start of a new tier.

Commentary Rankings:

Composite Rankings:

Let me know how you’re attacking C in the comments below. I’m open to taking Sanchez in the second round, but not specifically targeting him. From there, I’m likely to wait until the mid-100s or later to get my first catcher. I could double up with a Gattis/Ramos or wait for my second and get a Grandal/Iannetta. I did make some changes in these rankings compared to my initial run of the Composite C rankings, moving Lucroy up a spot and Iannetta up a few. Reminder: these are for a standard 5×5 league. Generally thinking of a 15-team league, but things wouldn’t change all that much for 10- or 12-teamers.

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2018 Sophomores: Expect Improvements Over 2017

Followers of Aaron Judge and Cody Bellinger may now have unrealistic expectations for freshman performances. It’s not supposed to be quite so easy to acclimatize to the big leagues. And we can see proof of this from the same 2017 campaign — which saw a number of prospects struggle with the move to The Show. Today, we’re going to look at a few rookies from 2017 that should be better than they showed last year as we move into 2018 and beyond.

Jose Osuna, 1B/OF, Pirates: Osuna spent the majority of 2017 in the majors and appeared in 110 games but he managed just 227 at-bats. The rookie was put in the difficult position of pinch hitting in roughly half of his appearances and he hit just .120/.154/.200 in that role. If you look at the numbers he produced when playing the field, he displayed well above average power and a solid ability to hit for average. He just needs to be more patient. And, if he’s going to take advantage of the new juiced ball era, Osuna is going to have to make swing adjustments to hit more balls in the air. The Pirates seem intent on finding a way to keep the sophomore on the roster in 2018 as he’s seen time at third base this spring to go along with his ability to play first base and both corner outfield positions. However, it will be difficult for him to find regular playing time with the current roster, including the presence of veteran David Freese who will be without a position if rookie Colin Moran wins the third base gig.

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Jake Arrieta Lands Middle Case Scenario

Narratives are the life blood of sportswriters. And so, it’s easy to summarize Jake Arrieta with a series of narratives. Scott Boras overreached, leading to a complicated three-year, $75 million deal rather than the $200 million target. The target was never realistic because Arrieta has declining peripherals. Pitchers tend to mysteriously disappear overnight in their early to mid-30s. Not all pitchers. Many. Most?

These are all familiar narratives regarding Arrieta’s surprisingly long stint in free agency. After signing on March 11 to join an awkwardly positioned Phillies roster, we now have a number of new tales to add to his storybook.

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March Composite Rankings – First Base

Our staff composite rankings are back! We’re kicking things off with Catcher and we’ll be rolling out a new position each day over the next week-plus. I will still be doing my commentary by position rankings to give a quick little thought, but those will be separate posts.

We’re using Yahoo! eligibility requirements which is 5 starts or 10 appearances. These rankings assume the standard 5×5 categories and a re-draft league. If we forgot someone, please let us know in the comments and we’ll make sure he’s added for the updates. If you have questions for a specific ranker on something he did, let us know in the comments. We can also be reached via Twitter:

There will be differences, sharp differences, within the rankings. The rankers have different philosophies when it comes to ranking, some of which you’re no doubt familiar with through previous iterations. Of course the idea that we’d all think the same would be silly because then what would be the point of including multiple rankers?! Think someone should be higher or lower? Make a case. Let us know why you think that. The chart is sortable. If a ranker didn’t rank someone that the others did, he was given that ranker’s last rank +1.

You can also check out my 1B rankings with commentary here.

Key:

  • AVG– just the average of the seven ranking sets
  • Adj. AVG– the average minus the high and low rankings
  • SPLIT– the difference between the high and low rankings

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Pitcher Spotlight: Jeff Samardzija’s Home Run Problem

By most metrics, Jeff Samardzija had himself a career year in 2017. His strikeout rate hinted a 25% clip, he featured a minuscule 3.8% walk rate, and his 1.14 WHIP was the second best mark of his career.

What did have to show for it? An obtuse 4.42 ERA that seems unjust for such strong peripherals, fueled by a ghastly 1.30 HR/9 mark and a 13.8% HR/FB rate.

Can Samardzija lower his home run rate? If he does, can we assume that Samardzija will keep near the same strikeout and walk rates and hint at his 3.63 SIERA? Was there something in his approach that suggested he should allow six extra tates or should we just cough it up to “juiced balls” and the state of the game?

This is where it gets fun.

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Spring Training Notes (3/9/18): Archer’s Change, Astros at First, Brewers Leadoff

3/8/18

Brewers vs Diamondbacks

In the game, Christian Yelich led off with Lorenzo Cain batting second. In the three games when both have been in the lineup, Yelich has led off in each one. This lineup position will be a small hit to Yelich’s value. While he’ll get 30 extra at-bats during the season, he’ll start off the game with no RBI chances. Also, hitting after the pitcher limiting his opportunities even more.

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Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – March 9th, 2018

Transcript is below!

2:23

Paul Sporer: Hey y’all! We’re getting closer and closer to the regular season!

2:23

Larry: Bauer at 47 for you? What’s your hesitation?

2:26

Paul Sporer: He’s in the glob so he can reasonably go as high as the 30s, but I’m just not super sold on him. Let’s get a sub-4.00 ERA season

2:26

Spring’s Sprung?: I asked Jeff this question earlier. Curious your take as well: Any pitchers stand out to you so far in spring as potential breakout guys? Last year we saw Morton and Jordan Montgomery. Anyone like that this year?  (He said Wade Miley)

2:27

Paul Sporer: I haven’t seen anything jump out just yet

2:27

Greg: You buying Luis Severino’s breakout?

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The Marlins Are The Collusion

Over on Twitter.com, Phillies prospect guy Matt Winkleman had an interesting thought. Behold.

Indeed, the Marlins could have had a very fun offseason. Jeets would be feted as the savior of Miami. If team failed to get off the ground, he could have sold all the same assets at a mid-season mark up.

By now, you may notice this isn’t about fantasy baseball. Strictly speaking, it’s a fantasy about baseball. Kinda adjacent, right? Sure.

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