March Composite Rankings – First Base
Our staff composite rankings are back! We’re kicking things off with Catcher and we’ll be rolling out a new position each day over the next week-plus. I will still be doing my commentary by position rankings to give a quick little thought, but those will be separate posts.
We’re using Yahoo! eligibility requirements which is 5 starts or 10 appearances. These rankings assume the standard 5×5 categories and a re-draft league. If we forgot someone, please let us know in the comments and we’ll make sure he’s added for the updates. If you have questions for a specific ranker on something he did, let us know in the comments. We can also be reached via Twitter:
There will be differences, sharp differences, within the rankings. The rankers have different philosophies when it comes to ranking, some of which you’re no doubt familiar with through previous iterations. Of course the idea that we’d all think the same would be silly because then what would be the point of including multiple rankers?! Think someone should be higher or lower? Make a case. Let us know why you think that. The chart is sortable. If a ranker didn’t rank someone that the others did, he was given that ranker’s last rank +1.
You can also check out my 1B rankings with commentary here.
Key:
- AVG– just the average of the seven ranking sets
- Adj. AVG– the average minus the high and low rankings
- SPLIT– the difference between the high and low rankings
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| NAME | Paul S | Mike | Jeff | Justin | AVG | Adj. AVG | Split | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paul Goldschmidt | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0 |
| 2 | Freddie Freeman | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1 |
| 3 | Joey Votto | 2 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 3 |
| 4 | Anthony Rizzo | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 1 |
| 5 | Jose Abreu | 5 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5.3 | 5.0 | 1 |
| 6 | Edwin Encarnacion | 7 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 7.3 | 7.0 | 3 |
| 7 | Rhys Hoskins | 9 | 4 | 7 | 9 | 7.3 | 8.0 | 5 |
| 8 | Cody Bellinger | 6 | 10 | 6 | 8 | 7.5 | 7.0 | 4 |
| 9 | Wil Myers | 8 | 11 | 11 | 7 | 9.3 | 9.5 | 4 |
| 10 | Eric Hosmer | 11 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 9.3 | 9.0 | 3 |
| 11 | Miguel Cabrera | 10 | 15 | 10 | 12 | 11.8 | 11.0 | 5 |
| 12 | Justin Smoak | 12 | 13 | 16 | 14 | 13.8 | 13.5 | 4 |
| 13 | Miguel Sano | 16 | 12 | 14 | 16 | 14.5 | 15.0 | 4 |
| 14 | Ian Desmond | 13 | 21 | 13 | 13 | 15.0 | 13.0 | 8 |
| 15 | Joey Gallo | 15 | 9 | 22 | 15 | 15.3 | 15.0 | 13 |
| 16 | Matt Carpenter | 22 | 16 | 15 | 11 | 16.0 | 15.5 | 11 |
| 17 | Carlos Santana | 17 | 18 | 25 | 17 | 19.3 | 17.5 | 8 |
| 18 | Ryan Zimmerman | 19 | 20 | 17 | 23 | 19.8 | 19.5 | 6 |
| 19 | Gregory Bird | 18 | 14 | 26 | 29 | 21.8 | 22.0 | 15 |
| 20 | Josh Bell | 20 | 25 | 23 | 21 | 22.3 | 22.0 | 5 |
| 21 | Jay Bruce | 26 | 17 | 30 | 18 | 22.8 | 22.0 | 13 |
| 22 | Yulieski Gurriel | 30 | 31 | 12 | 20 | 23.3 | 25.0 | 19 |
| 23 | Matt Olson | 14 | 27 | 34 | 19 | 23.5 | 23.0 | 20 |
| 24 | Yonder Alonso | 24 | 28 | 18 | 27 | 24.3 | 25.5 | 10 |
| 25 | Justin Bour | 25 | 34 | 21 | 22 | 25.5 | 23.5 | 13 |
| 26 | Trey Mancini | 29 | 32 | 20 | 28 | 27.3 | 28.5 | 12 |
| 27 | Ryan McMahon | 21 | 38 | 19 | 34 | 28.0 | 27.5 | 19 |
| 28 | Logan Morrison | 28 | 19 | 35 | 31 | 28.3 | 29.5 | 16 |
| 29 | Eric Thames | 31 | 22 | 36 | 26 | 28.8 | 28.5 | 14 |
| 30 | Kendrys Morales | 32 | 29 | 32 | 25 | 29.5 | 30.5 | 7 |
| 31 | Hanley Ramirez | 33 | 23 | 40 | 24 | 30.0 | 28.5 | 17 |
| 32 | Brandon Belt | 35 | 24 | 28 | 35 | 30.5 | 31.5 | 11 |
| 33 | Chris Davis | 36 | 26 | 39 | 30 | 32.8 | 33.0 | 13 |
| 34 | C.J. Cron | 34 | 33 | 33 | 32 | 33.0 | 33.0 | 2 |
| 35 | Joe Mauer | 40 | 35 | 24 | 36 | 33.8 | 35.5 | 16 |
| 36 | Marwin Gonzalez | 23 | 44 | 27 | 43 | 34.3 | 35.0 | 21 |
| 37 | Albert Pujols | 39 | 30 | 31 | 37 | 34.3 | 34.0 | 9 |
| 38 | Jose Martinez | 27 | 48 | 38 | 33 | 36.5 | 35.5 | 21 |
| 39 | Lucas Duda | 37 | 39 | 41 | 41 | 39.5 | 40.0 | 4 |
| 40 | Ryon Healy | 41 | 41 | 37 | 39 | 39.5 | 40.0 | 4 |
| 41 | Neil Walker | 43 | 47 | 29 | 51 | 42.5 | 45.0 | 22 |
| 42 | Mitch Moreland | 44 | 45 | 45 | 40 | 43.5 | 44.5 | 5 |
| 43 | Matt Davidson | 45 | 36 | 47 | 51 | 44.8 | 46.0 | 15 |
| 44 | Jedd Gyorko | 46 | 37 | 51 | 45 | 44.8 | 45.5 | 14 |
| 45 | Gerardo Parra | 47 | 40 | 51 | 42 | 45.0 | 44.5 | 11 |
| 46 | Chase Headley | 48 | 46 | 44 | 44 | 45.5 | 45.0 | 4 |
| 47 | Matt Adams | 38 | 57 | 51 | 38 | 46.0 | 44.5 | 19 |
| 48 | Luis Valbuena | 51 | 43 | 46 | 46 | 46.5 | 46.0 | 8 |
| 49 | Derek Dietrich | 42 | 42 | 51 | 51 | 46.5 | 46.5 | 9 |
| 50 | Wilmer Flores | 49 | 53 | 42 | 48 | 48.0 | 48.5 | 11 |
Wow Pod with Hoskins over Votto…
Sporer- would you have Votto #1 in leagues with Avg and OBP?
There are within like 50 cents of each other. It’s because I’m the high man on Hoskins’ batting average, so that is boosting his value compared to everyone else.
Curious what the value drop off is like between Rizzo/Votto and Abreu… that seems like a natural faultline given that nobody has Abreu above any of the five guys ahead of him.
I have Abreu just below Votto, the dropoff for me is after him to EE, about a $3 drop there.
Pod having GALLO over Bellinger is even more interesting! Pod, what do you prefer about Gallo that gets him ahead of Cody? Seems like they have similar skillsets, with Bellinger a lot more likely to hit .250-.270.
Jeff really likes Yuli Gurriel huh?
This is digging deep but if Christian Walker had a roster spot somewhere would he make this list? Seems like a potential beast no one is talking about because he’s blocked.
Walker probably deserves a shot somewhere because his AAA numbers with the Orioles were decent and the guy is 27 now, but I wouldn’t go calling him a “potential beast” based on his AAA numbers last year in Reno.There is a long list of guys putting up huge numbers in Reno and not doing much in the majors.
Unfortunately, he isn’t getting that shot with the DBacks.
Fair but the 10.3 % BB% and 17.6 % K rate have to intrigue them.
It’s Reno. It definitely was a good season, but every year there are 1 or 2 guys that put together monster years in Reno. Not only is your home ballpark at altitude (4,500′) but 2/3 of your away games are at altitude as well. The 3 prior years when he was at sea level his K%/BB% was more like 25% and 8.5% and his ISO was more like .170.
I’m not saying he wouldn’t do well in the majors and like I posted, he definitely deserves a shot (and has definitely been a victim of teams getting to bury guys in the minors forever), but beast? I don’t think so.
Why so low on Bellinger, Pod?
This was actually my bad, as I had him valued as an OFer, and didn’t change his position to 1B. As an OFer, he’s losing value because of the steals, since they are more abundant in OF vs 1B. As a first baseman, his value jumps, and he’d slot in 7th ahead of EE, which is right where everyone else has him.
Whoops – posted my comment before seeing this. Apologies!
So> AL only 5×5 league with $260 budget and 8 keepers allowed per team, creating price inflation. Question: I can keep Abreu at $32 which is a full valuation, although dependent upon time he comes up in the auction, his range could be $28-36. He clearly is a step+ above other 1b in AL…..and his batting average is a huge portfolio factor, in my mind.
Strategically, does his positional seperation transcend a purely mathematical analysis…. ? In other words, is he a guy you just want to keep as a cornerstone player?
Others might disagree, but in a keeper league, I only care about his projected value vs his keeper salary. Run a valuation on his projection and compare that value to his $32 value. I can’t imagine he’s a good deal, so it wouldn’t make sense to keep a player unless at a discount. It’s all about accumulating as much value at the auction as possible, being mindful of category balance, and by keeping a player at or above value, you’re hampering your ability to do that.
I think the key is this: keeping an expensive player at value only makes sense if the keeper situation is such that you will not be able to spend all of your money at auction in a cost effective manner. Yes, it is about accumulating the most value at auction—but not by leaving money on the table. On the other hand, if you will not be able to spend all of your money efficiently at auction while not keeping Abreu at $32, it probably means that inflation is high enough in your league that Abreu is actually worth more than $32. So, there probably is not much actual disagreement here. That is assuming that Pod compares projected *inflated* value with keeper salary rather than projected *uninflated* value, in which case I would disagree with Pod.
This is right.
Well said, cb.
I’m someone who disagrees with Pod. Surplus value over contract cost for mid-tier players and below is only useful if there are elite players available for you to win with the savings at auction. In other words, a certain number of elite players are necessary in your starting lineup, whereas surplus spread across your lineup and bench is less helpful. Another way to think about it is that an $11 player you keep for $1 is less impactful than a $40 player you keep for $32, even though the surplus is greater. Why? Because $40 players are themselves a scarce resource. The dollar value of your roster has to successfully convert into useful performance during the season, and getting $40 out of just 150 games is huge.
Also, in my league (which has more keeper spots), the fact that a number of young stars are already owned puts a cost premium on available stars at auction. It can be worthwhile to lock down a star close to market value, even if it means giving up greater surplus from one of the little guys, because stars are more likely to go for above their actual value than below it.
CALEBW:
Thanks for the response, it helped frame things up for me. In these “Only” leagues, performance reliability and scarcity play a more important factor in success than people realize. When I look at Abreu, I see a guy that provides huge performance reliability, as well as deserves a big performance scarcity premium on Batting Average. Put another way, while there may be 3-5 1b that arguably can provide similar HR, none (except E5) can claim year-in, year-out reliability like Abreu and none (including E5) can come close to similar Batting Average. In fact, as a position, batting average for 1b is a material team drag in AL only. This year my league is adding one more team to a total of 12 teams. 1b is one of the more shallow positions, for excellence. In the end, I think this discussion revolves around some of the comparative performance discussion promulgated by the Black Book. While I hate to spend more than a $20 handle on any player, in this case it feels like the right thing to do…….
Breaking news: experts in agreement on C.J. Cron!
Ian Desmond at #14 seems awfully optimistic based on his 2017 and Steamer/ZiPS projections. I think I want most of the next 10+ guys before I’d take him.
I’m kind of with you on that one. Desmond was a LOT more interesting when he had SS eligibility.
And now the Rockies have a bajillion outfielders and McMahon at first, so Desmond’s playing time is now very much up in the air.
Based on a 2017 where he was hurt? That’s an outlier with a legit reason as to why he didnt hit for power. He still .274 with 15 SBs in 95 games. He should be ranked higher if anything. You can always find power in season at 1B but you wont find speed outside of Goldy and Myers at 1B.
It’s not like he has significant comp. Parra just had hand surgery last month. Cargo has been on a steady decline for years. Tapia, Dahl and McMahon are all unproven and may start the season in AAA. Not to mention that all of these guys are lefties. They will be fighting each other for playing time more then they will Desmond.
I will happily take a proven 20/20 guy who hits .270-.280 who also has the Coors field upside on his power numbers.
No not based on 2017, based on his Steamer and ZiPS projections and if FG has taught us one thing the projections are better at this than we are. ZiPS sees a repeat of his awful 2015, at least Steamer would make him somewhat valuable (.342 wOBA, Gurriel level). I guess in a batting average league he looks better, but I dont play in any of those.
Paulie, Jeff. Matt Olson showdown. Or dance-off. Your choice. Go!
Can you all do the SP rankings by 3/17? They are the most helpful to me in drafts. I will buy a membership! Thanks!
I think Chris Davis is a great late round gamble. Doubt anyone would be that shocked if he had another big season. Bellinger worries me a bit more than most at his current price .
Of the 13 guys above Olson, there is maybe 2 I would take over him if all were available
“Think someone should be higher or lower? Make a case.”
Okay: I think Freeman should be significantly lower. My case: I don’t want to pay through the nose at auction for him, and this does not help. So please artificially lower his ranking to help me. Thx.
Can I make an auction calculator request? Is there any way to get the calc to output raw category totals rather than the mScores? I know someone told me how to do this myself last year, but I’m not that smart.
Gyorko is way too low on this list. Over the last 2 seasons Gyorko has hit 32 HRs per 600 PAs. His playing time looks locked in with Matt Carpenter only being healthy enough to play 1B if he does play. He is a great late round flyer considering he also has 2B and 3B eligibility.
Agreed. He broke out with his batting average and OBP in addition to his usual power last season (and his defense, not that it matters for fantasy rankings), so he was always ticketed to be the starting third baseman unless the Cards had actually traded for Donaldson or Machado. He’s a better hitter with a better track record in line for much more playing time than Jose Martinez, so I have no idea how he actually gets ranked behind a bench player on his own team!
This is slightly off topic, but it’s a question I’m genuinely curious about. I’ve always done my valuations for players with multiple positions using the hierarchy C >SS > 2B > 3B > 1B > OF. But in the auction calculator and in a couple other posts, I’ve seen OF ranked above 1B. This would seem to alter the valuations for a number of players. I know you can change the order on the calculator, but what are the reasons for ranking 1B and OF one way or the other?
If you need 3 OF, often that increases scarcity. Like, if there are seven $20+ first basemen, there would have to be 21 outfielders worth $20+ at parity. (Assuming similar talent distribution curves within each position.) But obv. it depends on the year-to-year talent pool.
Kinda was expecting Olson to be higher on this list. Was also surprised hat Bird was higher than Olson. Do not get that.
Rankings on the right still linking to 2017