2018 June Potential Starting Pitcher xwOBA Regressors
Back from Portugal! Thankfully, technology is amazing and I haven’t missed a baseball beat. Before I left, I listed and discussed the starting pitchers who had posted significantly worse wOBA against marks than their Statcast xwOBA marks. So today I’ll look at the pitchers on the other side of the coin, those who have most outperformed their xwOBA marks, and therefore may be in for some serious regression.
Remember that xwOBA fails to account for home ballpark, defensive support, quality and opposition, and perhaps other factors I’m not able to come up with at the moment. It’s why I stick to the extremes, as even with all factors accounted for, it’s highly likely these guys are still due for the same directional move in wOBA, though perhaps not to the same degree.
| Player | wOBA | xwOBA | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Straily | 0.325 | 0.424 | -0.099 |
| Matt Koch | 0.324 | 0.418 | -0.094 |
| Sean Manaea | 0.267 | 0.353 | -0.086 |
| Francisco Liriano | 0.298 | 0.383 | -0.085 |
| Daniel Mengden | 0.261 | 0.344 | -0.083 |
| Michael Wacha | 0.277 | 0.358 | -0.081 |
| James Shields | 0.281 | 0.352 | -0.071 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | 0.250 | 0.316 | -0.066 |
| Jaime Barria | 0.280 | 0.345 | -0.065 |
| Reynaldo Lopez | 0.288 | 0.353 | -0.065 |
Dan Straily tops the list of the lucky folk, posting a wOBA nearly a full 100 points below his xwOBA. That’s impressive! He has accomplished this feat thanks to a .200 BABIP, which is clearly some magic act given that his LD% sits at an inflated 29.7%. His strikeout and walk rates are disgusting as well, so you’re playing with fire if he’s in your lineup because of that currently shiny ERA. It won’t stay shiny for much longer.
Uh oh, Sean Manaea is not the man I wanted to find here, considering I own him in a bunch of leagues. Despite posting another double digit SwStk%, his strikeout rate has remained below average, and only a stronger walk rate has helped keep his K-BB% in line. A .225 BABIP obviously won’t last, so I’m nervous here. Of course, the time to sell high was many starts ago, either just after his no-hitter or the start after. Since, he’s allowed four runs three times, and six in his latest outing. You always worry about health, but I would wait for another good outing or a pair of good outings before seeking to sell him.
For his career, Francisco Liriano owns essentially a league average BABIP of .298, but this year, it sits at just .220. That’s all you need to know to understand why he has outperformed his xwOBA to such a degree. His skills are nearly identical to last year, but this BABIP is what has pushed his ERA down by nearly two runs. You shouldn’t be tempting fate, even in AL Only leagues, where he should be firmly on your trade block or your bench (better yet, in the free agent pool so he could wreck your competitor’s ratios).
For a second straight season, Daniel Mengden has posted results far better than his skills support. This season, he continues to strikeout few, while displaying elite control, but has gotten by thanks to a low BABIP. You can’t even argue soft contact, as xwOBA literally accounts for that, and his Hard% is an inflated 38.2%, well above the league average. I’m selling him for anything in AL-Only and wouldn’t touch him in shallower.
This hasn’t been the Michael Wacha rebound you may have thought. While a .278 BABIP and 8.7% HR/FB is more in line with his good ERA years, xwOBA suggests that the quality of contact he has allowed are deserving of far worse results. His walk rate is also at a career worst and he’s allowing line drives at an insane 30.8% clip. Now seems like an excellent time to sell high, as he hasn’t allowed more than two runs since his third start of the season.
It’s scary when you appear on this list and your ERA is already inflated at 4.54. I know James Shields is still sitting on free agency in one of my two AL-Only leagues (he’s actually on a team in AL Tout), but there’s bound to be some more of you who own him. Don’t do that to yourself.
That xwOBA mark is still well below average for Jeremy Hellickson, so although he has been fortunate, he has been legitimately good, and much better than his recent disastrous seasons. He’s inducing more grounders than ever, and yet also generating a ton of pop-ups, which is a rare combination. While he’s unlikely to maintain a .245 BABIP, remember that he used to be a low BABIP king, and even posted a .246 mark last year when he was beyond awful. He should handily outperform his rest of season ERA projection and probably earn a bit of NL-Only value.
Jaime Barria has been a surprise positive for AL-Only leaguers over six starts, but the good times aren’t likely to last, since he’s not going to maintain a .247 BABIP all year. Oddly, his SwStk% is a strong 11.8%, yet he has only managed a 19.4% strikeout rate. Perhaps there’s some upside there, which could hold off some ERA regression when his BABIP rises.
Nope, the Reynaldo Lopez breakout is not happening, despite what his 2.93 ERA might lead you to believe. Both his strikeout and walk rates are worse than average and combine for a weak 6.4% K-BB%, and he’s getting by thanks to a .218 BABIP and 8.3% HR/FB, despite pitching in a favorable home run park. He’s a prime sell high guy considering his former prospect status, which gives the impression that he’s enjoying that anticipated breakout.
Mike Podhorzer is the founder of ProjectingX IQ, an advanced fantasy baseball analytics platform that transforms projection data and in-season performance signals into actionable intelligence. He is the 2015 Fantasy Sports Writers Association Baseball Writer of the Year and three-time Tout Wars champion. He is the author of the eBook Projecting X 2.0: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance, which teaches you how to project players yourself. Follow Mike on X@MikePodhorzer and contact him via email.
Agreed on Reynaldo….he’s a good contact pitcher, not a hard thrower type.
Huh? His vFA is 95.9 mph
Wouldn’t touch Mengden in anything shallower than AL-only? Doesn’t that depend on what’s available? In my 12-team league, with large rosters, he’s been much more valuable than the next best thing available on waivers. I fully expect the regression, and if possible sell-high, but his ratios still warrant attention until he falls apart. Much more effective than what else is available is my main point.
This is all about the future, not the past. His current ratios are meaningless, as you don’t use current ERA to predict rest of season ERA. His underlying skills and xwOBA suggest he’s going to carry negative value in 12 team mixed leagues the rest of the way.
Underlying skills? Like having five pitches that he can use whenever he wants with spot on command? What exactly is actually underlying that he does poorly?
You don’t even have to use ERA. His FIP and xFIP suggest that he’s going to be of value in 12-teams and that’s if you’re ignoring his talents and what he actually brings to the table.
What about the fact that his fastball averaged 95 mph last start and is trending upward? The .81 BB/9 rate? The breaking and off-speed stuff seems to profile nicely too.
His biggest flaw is that he barely pitches outside of the zone, despite being in the top-3rd of qualified pitchers in O-swing%. If he keeps pitching like this, yea sure the success can’t continue the way it has. But what makes you so certain he will?
What does he do poorly? Strike out hitters! And allow too many line drives.
Why are you using FIP, which doesn’t normalize HR/FB? SIERA is far superior to both FIP and xFIP for predictive purposes. A SIERA above 4.00, paired with a terrible strikeout rate, means he’s worthless if his ERA rises to match his SIERA.
Are you trying to argue that he has legit .246 BABIP skills? That after just 181.1 career innings, he’s a SIERA outperformer?
I didn’t and don’t ever use any form of FIP when evaluating pitchers. It is too “stupid” of a stat. I was merely attacking your assertion that ERA is the only thing on his line that looks good, because it isn’t (by the way, I mentioned xFIP as well, which does account for HR/FB, as you know… but you conveniently act as though I didn’t). The most basic of peripheral metrics suggest he really hasn’t been quite all that bad. A 4 ERA from a guy who doesn’t walk anyone and has a long innings leash is a rosterable guy in my 12 team, especially leagues with quality starts. Hell, anyone who has a 3.xx ERA or low 4.xx is rosterable in my leagues.
Do I think that he’s a SIERA suppressor? Yea, maybe not quite like what he’s done so far. But he’s leading the fucking league in walk rate man (like does that not make him stand out to you at all??) and averaged 95 mph on his four seamer his last start. He throws two fastballs with pin point command, 2 breakers and a change. He can throw any of them whenever he wants for a strike. That’s not like a common thing. If someone is going to defy statistical norms it’s wouldn’t exactly surprise me if it was him. It would make deterministic sense.
His big problem is that he’s predictable and doesn’t throw outside of the zone.
Hard contact and line drive percentage are both relatively transient. They’re more indicative of past luck than future performance. As in, he was lucky those line drives and hard flies didn’t turn into something worse, but that doesn’t mean he will continue to let up hard contact and line drives. Looking at the way he pitches, I’d guess he corrects whatever is leading to that type of contact within time, even if it means more walks (and probably more k’s and swstr, honestly). This is basic stuff, and it’s really dumb to apply a catch-all statistic to such a strange pitcher anyway. I’m guessing we see more strikeouts too, because usually pitchers don’t gain a tick of velocity and lose strikeouts.
So again, like a 4 ERA dude who logs innings and has a low WHIP is useful in my 12-team. Idk about yours. Innings are really hard to come by today.
what if both of you are right and its actually just the park?? i mean its no coincidence manaea AND mengden are here considering the no hitter was at home and mengden road peripherals are CLEARLY worse
Oakland definitely is a pitcher friendly venue, but that doesn’t mean you can use it to justify any wOBA-xwOBA gap. There’s still a limit that the park factors would suggest the gap should be. Just like Colorado with Coors. You can’t say that Arenado posting an .800 wOBA vs a .400 xwOBA is justified because Coors.
Not many K’s, not many walks, lots of line drives and hard contact – that’s how you describe both Mengden and Josh Tomlin.
Uh. What? Josh Tomlin throws an 89 mph fastball and has NEVER suppressed walks like Mengden is now.
Mengden himself has never suppressed walks like he is right now. Pretty much nobody has. In the last 20 years the only 3 qualified pitcher seasons under his 0.81 BB/9 are 2010 Cliff Lee, 2014 Phil Hughes and 2005 Carols Silva. I’ll let you decide whether that’s sustainable.
The fact is the guy’s inputs (EV, launch angle, Hard%, LD%, etc) don’t match his results.