2018 Bold Hitter League Leaders – A Recap

Gosh, if you thought getting bold predictions right was a tough task, the bold league leaders is even more difficult. Not only do I have to choose a player who would be considered bold to lead the league in the category in question, but the pick has to at least be realistic enough so there’s an actual non-zero chance of the prediction coming true. Let’s see how I did this season on the hitting side. Here are my original thoughts.

American League

Batting Average – Manny Machado

Third time’s a charm, right? This was the third straight season I picked Machado here, and although he didn’t lead the league, he did hit a career best .297 thanks solely to a career low strikeout rate. He also managed to post his best IFFB%, but for a second straight season, struggled to hit line drives at an average clip.

Home Runs – Gregory Bird Miguel Sano

Ha, so I had planned to go with Bird here until his pre-season injury wiped away any chances. Instead, I embarrassed myself equally by going with Sano, who hit all of 13 homers all season. Injuries and a surprise minor league demotion limited him to just 299 plate appearances, but his home run pace was down anyway. Unfortunately, at some point he needs to improve that strikeout rate as he can’t simply rely on an inflated BABIP and mid-to-high 20% HR/FB rate every season.

RBI – Nick Castellanos

My pick here was due to the fact that Castellanos figured to hit cleanup, a prime RBI spot. So naturally, he only hit there during 112 plate appearances, spending the majority of his time batting third, along with some time hitting second. That actually resulted in 12 fewer RBI than 2017! We’ll have to wait another year for that potential Castellanos breakout explosion.

Runs – Ian Kinsler

Wowzer, Kinsler scored just 66 runs, his second lowest mark since his 2006 debut! Because of such offensive ineptitude, he spent just as much time in the bottom half of the lineup as leadoff. At age 36, he might not have a starting job again.

Stolen Bases – Leonys Martin

Nope. Nope. Nope. Of course injuries ruined my pick, as Martin was limited to just 353 plate appearances. But even when he was on the field, he stopped running. He attempted the same number of steals this year as last year in more than double the plate appearances and a significantly higher OBP.

National League

Batting Average – Freddie Freeman

Do you understand how awesome a hitter Freeman is? Always a big line drive guy, he led baseball this year with a career high mark of 32.3%! Ummmm, that’s the highest mark for any qualified hitter going back to 2002. HOLY $HIT. It helped him post a .358 BABIP en route to the second highest average of his career. He ended up finishing third in the league in average, so this was a pretty decent pick, though not overly bold.

Home Runs – Kyle Schwarber

Schwarber cut his strikeout rate and upped his HR/FB rate marginally to a career high. Yet, he failed to reach 30 homers. Why? Because his fly ball rate plunged below 40% for the first time. It helped his BABIP rebound, but it’s no good for his power. Because he’ll never start against lefties, there isn’t much more upside here.

RBI – Marcell Ozuna

Ozuna was coming off a career year and while I didn’t believe in a repeat, he was positioned to hit behind a trio of high OBP guys, giving him massive RBI potential. Sadly, he failed to deliver, registering just 88 RBI, as his offense reverted right back to his pre-2017 levels.

Runs – Christian Yelich

OMG, I missed a rare win by one measly run. Charlie Blackmon scored 119 runs to Yelich’s 118 to lead the league, but this qualifies as a successful call. Boy did Yelich have a season for the ages. Do you realize he just posted a 35% HR/FB rate?! That was highest in baseball…by far. In fact, he was the only qualified hitter to finish above 30%. Who would have ever guessed that?

Stolen Bases – Manuel Margot

So Margot decided he wasn’t going to contribute much in homers or steals this year. I get the power, as I thought last year’s output was a fluke. But where’d the speed go?! Just 21 attempts? Only successful on 11 of those? That’s unacceptable.

***

Surprise, surprise, I went 0 for 10. It’s expected. I had some embarrassingly poor calls, but also a couple of pretty respectable ones.