Brad Johnson’s Bold Predictions – A Review

It’s ’bout that time, eh chaps? The regular season is over which means we can review the nonsense we said prior to the 2018 campaign. I am, of course, referring to our Bold Predictions.

I participated in two rounds of predictions: preseason and midseason. I put together the latter list during the All Star Break (ASB) because it was painful apparent that I completely whiffed on all 10 initial predictions. Sure, let’s rub my face in it.

1. Trout hits at least 50 home runs
2. Pre-Injury Freeman returns
3. Joseph hits 20 home runs
4. Fowler pulls a Pham
5. DeShields scorches Earth
6. Arrieta for Cy
7. Johnson records 15 saves
8. Hum Hum Humidor
9. McCullers busts loose
10. BMac wins 12 games

The point of Bold Predictions is two-fold. Identify unexpected things that may happen. Highlight actionable fantasy advice. I guess I meant three-fold. It’s also a fun post for us.

Numbers 1, 7, and 8 were the most successful from an advice standpoint. Jim Johnson only recorded two saves, but he did have his chance atop the Angels pecking order. Mike Trout could have reached 50 homers sans injury. The humidor is estimated to have reduced offense by about 30 percent. Unfortunately, I tied my prediction to some… strong… expectations for the Diamondbacks pitching staff.

This part sucked. 0-for-10. Fortunately, I emphatically aced my midseason update. Check it out.

1. Manny Machado isn’t the top performing traded player

By WAR, Tommy Pham (2.5) narrowly edged out Machado (2.4) for the title of best traded player. Despite taking over 100 fewer plate appearances with his new club. And honestly, we need to talk about another guy. Who had Luke Voit in the pool? Although “only” worth 1.9 WAR in 148 plate appearances with the Yankees, I’m going to go ahead and crown him the top performing traded player on the strength of his .333/.405/.689 batting line and 14 home runs.

1-for-1

2. Matt Olson Matt Olsons

No, Matt Olson didn’t Matt Olson. In fact, there was no appreciable change between the first and second halves of his season. Shucks.

1-for-2

3. Michael Conforto is a second half top 50 fantasy earner

Boom. At the time, I received daily inquiries as to when it would be appropriate to cut Conforto. My response: “steady…” Conforto limped to a .216/.344/.366 batting line in the first half of the season. He followed up with a full .273/.356/.539 rebound, complete with 15 home runs, 43 runs, and 52 RBI.

2-for-3

4. Regression hits Jesus Aguilar like a Mack truck

The All Star enter the second half of the season staring off the cliff of regression. Sure enough, he fell. Was he pushed? Did he take the leap of his own volition? We’ll never know. We do know he hit only .245/.324/.436 after the ASB with just 11 of his 35 home runs. I hope you didn’t buy high.

3-for-4

5. Ketel Marte has his breakout

Although I maybe envisioned slightly more, Marte’s second half was undeniably a breakout. He hit .296/.377/.464 after the ASB. Aside from batting average, he continued producing fantasy stats at roughly the same rate as the first half of the season.

4-for-5

6. Denard Span, improbably, is the next breakout hitter with more walks than strikeouts

Ah! 19 walks, 30 strikeouts. Disqualified. Span looked like he had a chance to furnish me with another victory before completely wilting in September (69 wRC+, 10 walks, 19 strikeouts). Still this was useful advice to act upon if you used him in July and August.

4-for-6

7. Kirby Yates is the top closer currently without the job

Actually, that would be Jose Leclerc. He finished the season as the fifth best seated closer according to me. That’s based purely on talent rather than fantasy totals. Again, if you acted upon this advice, you benefited by acquiring a solid asset on the cheap. That’s a victory of sorts.

4-for-7

8. Lucas Giolito is the second half most improved pitcher – and 12 team streamable

I don’t have an easy way to quantify this, but I’m comfortable saying he was NOT the most improved pitcher. However, aside from a couple disasterpieces, he was undeniably improved. We just needed to drop the “most” qualification. He was also definitely a streamable pitcher. Eight of his final 14 starts were of the “quality” variety. Another pseudo-victory.

4-for-8

9. Jon Gray is the most usefully improved pitcher – and 10 team ownable

Gray had this one all sewn up for me until mid-September rolled around (9.60 ERA in four starts). Between his return from the minors and his late-season swoon, Gray posted a 3.17 ERA and 1.01 WHIP, albeit with all kinds of warning bells and whistles. He still fit the criteria right up until he imploded.

4-for-9

10. Felix Pena busts loose

I called Pena “Zack Godley with better command.” I think it was Alex Chamberlain who noted that Pena’s slider profile was reminiscent of Patrick Corbin. Regardless of which Diamondbacks starter is the better comparison, Pena pitched well enough in the second half to join The Glob next draft season. In 66.1 second half innings, he posted a 4.48 ERA (blech), 1.07 WHIP (ok!), and 7.19 K/9. He still has some issues with allowing too much hard contact.