The season numbers aren’t great but we’ve picked up some steam over the last few weeks and hopefully will finish strong. As always, if you have any suggestions or tips, please feel free to mention them in the comments section, and thank you for reading.

Here’s how we’re doing so far this season (through most of Week 21)

38-40 record
4.84 ERA
7.7 K/9
2.4 K/BB
1.42 WHIP
41 quality starts

Here are this week’s recs (with team wRC+ for this season in parentheses):

RHP Marco Estrada – 47.8% ESPN – v. BAL (100), @MIN (100)

He’s either been really good or really bad of late, but over his last nine starts has a respectable 3.98 ERA and .709 OPS against in 54.1 innings. He won’t get much offensive support, but he also feels relatively stable among pitchers who are owned under 50% — a tough lot to crack at this point of the year. If you prefer, go with one of the guys at the bottom.

LHP Eduardo Rodriguez – 34.6% ESPN – v. OAK (101), @TBR (98)

I’m just gambling on the talent here. Rodriguez has fanned more than a batter per inning this season (9.7 K/9), and his ERA (a so-so 4.33) is supported by a better FIP (4.04). His second half has not been particularly pretty (5.22 ERA), but he’s still got 53 strikeouts and just 16 walks in 50 innings, and both of these matchups are OK, though not great.

RHP Kyle Gibson – 18% ESPN – v. SD (85), v. TOR (90)

A move on the rubber has helped Gibson be absolutely terrific over the last month-and-a-half. Since then — he told me he made the change after the start in Houston on July 16 — he’s posted a 3.19 ERA, .682 OPS against and 38-11 K/BB ratio in 48 innings. Not only is he inducing grounders at a solid rate — like always — but he’s also got an 11% swinging-strike rate over that stretch. Grounders plus a swing-and-miss slider against two awful offenses? Sign me up.

Last men out: Hyun-jin Ryu (@SF, @WAS), Brandon Woodruff (v. PIT, @MIA)

Quicker chat today, but we’ll crush a marathoner next week

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Dillon Peters

• The 24-year-old, 5’9 lefty throws straight to home (no weird angles) from ¾ arm slot. I watched his last start from September 6th when he faced the Nationals.

• Fastball: 88-92 mph and it usually had a late dip. A few other times it had as much rise as a normal four-seamer. Looking at the pitch information, it seems to be just one pitch considering the spin axis. One possible explanation is that he lost fastball velocity as the game went on.

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This will be the last ottoneu most wanted report of the season, but there are still some hot unowned targets out there for contenders and rebuilding teams alike. Let’s take a look at the most added players over the past week:

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On Wednesday night, Tyler Lyons earned his second save of the season, seemingly cementing his position as the Cardinals’ primary option at closer. Yet right around the time Lyons was sewing up a 3-1 win against the Padres in San Diego, Juan Nicasio was en route to join the team, and ultimately, the mix of ninth-inning options.. The Cardinals acquired Nicasio from the Phillies in exchange for minor league second baseman Eliezer Alvarez.

As for Nicasio’s role with his second new team in the span of a week — as the Phillies claimed him off waivers from the Pirates — Mike Matheny told the St. Louis Post-Dispatch he would add the righty to the late-inning mix. Matheny added he could turn to Nicasio for the occasional save.
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Last night, I went to watch Tyler Glasnow versus Yonny Chirinos. The home town Bulls won 2-0. Glasnow’s stuff looked as impressive as ever, but he still lacks command and control. I’d say he has 35 grade control and 25 grade command. Chirinos had 60 grade control and 30 grade command. He has an unusually open stride which probably affects his ability to generate velocity.

AGENDA

1. Can You Believe It?
2. Weather Reports
3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
4. SaberSim Says…
5. TDG Invitational Returns!

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Episode 295 – That’s A Big Squint, My Friend

The latest episode of “Field of Streams” is live!

In this episode, Dylan Higgins and Matthew Dewoskin discuss the White Sox racing the Giants, a generous amount of quality streaming options on Friday, Wilmer Flores being done for the year, guessing Brett Anderson’s age, Andrew Heaney’s “impressive” homer total, Edwin Jackson somehow being “the safe option,” Homer Bailey’s risky downside, trying to trust Jake Junis, Max Fried’s early struggles, picking on the Mets again, and another Matt softball update.

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A.J. Preller made a lot of moves early in his tenure as Padres general manager but his two best acquisitions came from a seemingly-thrown-in prospect during a trade with the White Sox and the ’17 draft. San Diego has one of the better systems in the game.

The Graduate: Manuel Margot, OF: Margot (1.8 WAR) and pitcher Dinelson Lamet (1.4) have had the biggest rookie impacts on the Padres in 2017. Both players will likely enter 2018 with question marks, though. Lamet’s (mostly) two-pitch repertoire will need to continue to challenge hitters to keep him from eventually shifting to the bullpen. Margot will try and squeeze more value out of his bat after having the majority of his strength come from his outfield defence. Still, there are promising signs from Margot – including a 22.5% line-drive rate and reasonable 19.5% strikeout rate. If he can find a way to get on base more consistently and improve his base running (He’s just 13-for-19), the 22-year-old outfielder center-fielder could become a threat at the top of the order for San Diego.

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9/7/17

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 18, the best baseball strategy game ever made – available NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms! Go to ootpdevelopments.com to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER18!

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Leading Off: Question of the Day

• What do you expect out of Victor Robles rest of season? (2:00)

Notable Transactions/Rumors/Articles/Game Play

• Is Jose Ramirez a first-rounder in 2018? (8:00)
• Is Charlie Blackmon an early first-rounder in 2018? (15:50)
• Where does Luis Castillo slot among SP for 2018? (25:00)

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Predicting bat speed using the publicly available Statcast data is easier said than done. For much of the past few years there was a section on Baseball Savant which displayed a bat speed number of each player, but without much explanation for how it may be calculated. I haven’t inquired for an explanation, but I feel rather comfortable saying it was probably a derived stat using a formula published by Alan Nathan.

This formula takes the pitch speed and batted ball speed, and manipulates them using laboratory tested values for the various relevant coefficients–basically the bounciness of the ball and the bounciness of the bat. If you assume values for those coefficients, you can get a rough estimate for bat speed by plugging in the pitch speed and batted ball speed.

I don’t have proof that this is how bat speed was being estimated by Baseball Savant, but I feel it is the most likely explanation for the numbers.

Two weeks ago I proposed a formula for estimating future exit velocity using past exit velocity and launch angles. This method is far from perfect, and there is a whole lot more research that can be conducted into this area.

Over the past week I have been thinking about what performance changes may or may not be predictable from one season to another. Part of the variance that we see from season to season are large dips or climbs in offensive production, which often in retrospect we might be able to explain. Maybe there were signs that pointed towards decline, but we overlooked them for one reason or another. Maybe we didn’t know what the signs meant until further research had been conducted.

No doubt, these mistakes are often due to a lack of information. In some cases it may be bat speed. We don’t really know how much of a role bat speed plays between seasons or during the course of a career. We don’t know how injury plays a role with bat speed, nor do we understand the aging curve. Read the rest of this entry »