Earlier this year I developed two closely related stats which I called OUTs and bbFIP. I’m reasonably proud of these two stats, as I feel they do a pretty good job capturing the skill of each player. They account for the numbers of weakly and strongly hit balls, balls that have high home run rates, strikeouts and walks.
In other words, it accounts for every aspect of bat generated offense, ignoring base running ability. However running speed is used to judge whether batted balls are weakly or strongly hit for each individual batter. For example, a batted balls by Billy Hamilton may be near automatic singles, whereas they would be almost guaranteed outs if hit by Albert Pujols.
The formula is constructed as follows:
Where W = weak contact (xOBA ≤ .245), S = strong contact (xOBA ≥ .634), and sHR = strong home runs (xHR% ≥ .55).
You can convert this OUTs score to an ERA scalar by multiplying by -11 and adding a constant (~5.4). This will give you what I call bbFIP, a version of FIP that is superior to standard FIP both in season and between seasons. You can also find an offense’s average OUTs score by weighting each batter by their number of plate appearances, and then translate that number to the ERA scalar to figure out how many runs you might expect them to score through the course of a season.
There are a few things to keep in mind:
- Lower numbers are better. I tried to build this concept into the name, so it is easier to remember. It is called OUTs, outs are bad, whoever has the least of them is the best.
- The average score is about 0.1. This season it is closer to .09.
- The standard deviation is about 0.1.
As the 2017 regular season is coming to a close and we begin to gear up towards the 2018 season, I have a few preliminary OUTs and xOBA projections. These projections haven’t yet baked in the aging curve, so maybe ‘projection’ is the wrong word to use here. Either way, I have selected what I refer to as the ‘significantly above average’ projections in terms of OUTs. In other words, anyone who has a score less than 0. I’ve also supplied Z-Scores, xOBA, and xOBA Z-Scores. Read the rest of this entry »