Today’s Prospect Stock Watch looks at an Astros triple-A starter who might be able to help out the big league club’s bewildered bullpen, and two very toolsy athletes.

Rogelio Armenteros, RHP, Astros: Houston has been as aggressive as any organization in snapping up Cuban pitching talent with the likes of Cionel Perez ($2 million) and Elian Rodriguez ($1.9 million) but the best results have come from a hurler that cost just $40,000. Armenteros, 23, isn’t as flashy as the other two arms mentioned above but he has a much greater chance of impacting the big league product — and in the near future. He opened the 2017 season in double-A but has now made nine triple-A starts and he keeps getting better. He’s flirted with no-hitters in his last two appearances with just two hits allowed in 15 innings – along with three walks and 17 Ks.

He’s not overpowering but Armenteros knows how to change speeds and eye levels to keep opponents off-balance. His heater works in the 90-93 mph range and his go-to offering is a changeup. Long-term, he looks like an innings-eating No. 4 starter but, if I were the Astros, I’d consider trying him in the bullpen when rosters expand in September. He might just succeed (along the lines of Joe Musgrove) where the likes of Francisco Liriano and Tyler Clippard have failed.

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Today I’m going to ask myself a very personal question. Just kidding. I’m not really going to ask myself a personal question. Rather, I’m going to gloat about how having adopted the latest fashionable trends among MLB hitters has improved my own hitting.

AGENDA

1. Small Sample Proof
2. Weather Reports
3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
4. SaberSim Says…
5. TDG Invitational Returns!

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Episode 292 – You Can’t “Blah Blah Blah” Fantasy Advice

The latest episode of “Field of Streams” is live!

In this episode, Dylan Higgins and Matthew Dewoskin discuss Dylan continuing to not care about fantasy football, Mattn ot buying on Edwin Jackson, Dylan excusing the church bells outside his house, Luke Weaver not being related to Jered and Jeff, Dylan not being excited about Brock Holt, the return of Greg Bird, the weakest day of the week, Travis Wood’s viability in San Diego, a Blash on Blach matchup, Adam Conley living up to his weird home/road splits, and Clayton Richard going deep.

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Interestingly, it feels like I haven’t heard nearly as much this year about pitchers coming close to a potential innings limit. Actually, I’ve heard nary a peep about such a risk. But maybe it’s just because I don’t read other fantasy or real baseball news sites or fantasy message boards. But whether or not others have discussed it yet or not, there are going to be a smattering of starting pitchers who are shut down before the season ends. Let’s discuss four that may face such an early shut down.

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11 home runs in his first 18 games is amazing, but add in this to the highlight reel for Rhys Hoskins:

Everything’s going @RhysHoskins22’s way right now.

He just started a triple play! https://t.co/RnbAkMzcHv pic.twitter.com/tuHHYlvUlt

— MLB (@MLB) August 27, 2017

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Another messy outing for Greg Holland on Saturday. With a three-run lead in the ninth, he allowed two singles and a home run and was pulled with one out and the Rockies clinging to a one-run lead. Jake McGee was brought in to put out the fire, and he induced a game-ending double play.

After the game, when asked if he would continue to use Holland in save situations, Bud Black said, “Possibly. But maybe not. His next outing might be a closing situation. I can’t answer that right now. We haven’t definitively made that decision.”

On Sunday, again with a three-run lead, Black elected to use McGee to start the ninth, and he delivered a one-two-three inning. This, of course, looks like trouble for Holland and his fantasy owners.

In eight appearances dating back to August 6, Holland has faced 39 batters over 6.1 innings and has allowed 14 earned runs on four homers, 13 hits, and six walks while amassing just four strikeouts. His ERA has jumped from 1.56 to 4.05 over that span, which is a good reminder about the uselessness of past ERA as a predictor of future ERA, especially for relievers who pitch over tiny samples.

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8/25/17

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 18, the best baseball strategy game ever made – available NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms! Go to ootpdevelopments.com to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER18!

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Leading Off: Question of the Day

• Is Rhys Hoskins a legit beast? (1:55)
  • Eno’s piece

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Over the past two years we have had many conversations about batters increasing or decreasing launch angle. Obviously, these conversations have been brought about by our brand new launch angle stats, which only recently became publicly available. However, launch angle remains a difficult concept to fully grasp. What properties determine launch angle? How do batters control it? Can the batter control it?  These are all very valid questions which I think everyone has struggled to answer, including coaching staffs, players, analysts, and fans.

Yesterday Eno Sarris put up an article touching on this topic, in which he explains his journey towards wrapping his head around the phrase “go get the ball”. In doing so he posted two images that were generated using HITfx data, and he briefly mentioned that one may use a bit of math to make a few deductions from this data. Well, that is the topic of this article. I aim to take these images, compare them to the Statcast information we have for launch angle, and reverse engineer the contact point for batters. Read the rest of this entry »

If you think about rookie outfielders who have taken the league by storm in 2017, chances are Aaron Judge and Cody Bellinger immediately jump to mind. Both have been excellent sources of offensive production, posting wOBAs of .419 and .392, respectively. However, if you’re reading this, chances are that the excellence of Judge and Bellinger doesn’t come as a surprise. They have been excellent. Each of us knows they have been excellent.

However, there is a more recent promotion who belongs in a similar tier to Judge and Bellinger, when examining sources of surplus value in Ottoneu, and that player is Rhys Hoskins.

Dave and Carson have both covered Hoskins in the past week, with Dave likening the offensive skillset to that of Daniel Murphy, Matt Carpenter, Justin Turner, Ian Kinsler, or Anthony Rendon. Carson, examining the players in the minor leagues currently showing similar skill sets. Today, I want try to look at the production Hoskins has shown and see if we can potentially get a better idea of his future Ottoneu FG points value. (For those in non-ottoneu leagues, this should still translate relatively well).

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Around 11 months ago, I checked in on a player dominating in a foreign league who appeared likely to return stateside. Eric Thames ripped minor-league pitching, struggled in MLB, and then went on to dominate in KBO for three seasons before finding success back in MLB with the Brewers this season at the age of 30.

Like Thames, Wladimir Balentien ripped minor-league pitching (.283/.351/.535 with 67 homers in 1,271 plate appearances at the Triple-A level, according to Baseball-Reference), struggled in the Majors (.221/.281/.374 with a 72 wRC+, 7.9% BB% and 26.7% K% in 559 plate appearances) and found success overseas. Balentien began playing in NPB for the Yakult Swallows as a 26-year-old in 2011 and has mashed in seven seasons slashing .278/.385/.573 with 211 homers, a 14.7% BB% and 21.4% K% in 2,947 plate appearances, per Baseball-Reference. Read the rest of this entry »