The Daily Grind: Pointless Proof in a Small Sample

Today I’m going to ask myself a very personal question. Just kidding. I’m not really going to ask myself a personal question. Rather, I’m going to gloat about how having adopted the latest fashionable trends among MLB hitters has improved my own hitting.

AGENDA

1. Small Sample Proof
2. Weather Reports
3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
4. SaberSim Says…
5. TDG Invitational Returns!

1. Small Sample Proof

I play in a decently competitive mens’ league – a point I occasionally reference here in this column. Last season, I missed about a month with a strained hamstring. When I returned, I started using a leg kick and saw some instantly positive results. I rescued my seasonal batting line from abysmal to pretty bad. This year, in addition to the leg kick, I also lowered my hands. The result was a team best batting line. If it works for me, then it’s no surprise it works for the mutant freaks who play professional baseball.

Here are some numbers:

We have a league stats site that tracks team and player performance. Note, I missed a big chunk of this season due to an elbow injury.

And they say people don’t want to hear about your fantasy team. I bet you now wish this section had been about one of my teams! The point in all this is that mechanical changes can be very relevant to player value. I guess we already knew that, huh?

2. Weather Reports

The forecast for Chicago is just a little iffy. We’ll need to look again closer to game time. Make sure to check Colorado too, just in case.

3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse

Main Slate: Max Scherzer is returning from the disabled list. I’m not sure I want to spend $14,100 on DraftKings to roster a recently injured pitcher. Similarly, I’m wary of paying $13,100 for Corey Kluber at Yankees Stadium or $11,500 Luis Severino hosting a potent Indians lineup.

Aaron Nola costs an awful lot too for somebody with two straight duds. Even so, he’s more affordable than the other aces at $10,200, and he’s capable of keeping pace. Nola will face a mostly mediocre Braves offense. Even Freddie Freeman looks mortal these days – he’s admitted to wrist soreness.

Marcus Stroman and Drew Pomeranz are well-priced at $9,200 and $8,800 respectively. Too bad they face each other. Stroman tends to be a steady 18 to 22 DK points while Pomeranz lives in the 13 to 30 point range. I think most observers, including me, will prefer the Pomeranz side of the action. Stroman may be a nice contrarian play.

Jeff Samardzija is visiting the lowly Padres. He’s had one of the weirdest seasons of all pitchers – beautiful peripherals and mediocre results.

In the bargain bin, you’ll find Mike Montgomery ($7,100) versus Trevor Williams ($6,300). They’re both ground ball guys who outperform their peripherals by inducing soft contact and/or limiting hard contact. You’re playing for 11 to 22 points with these guys.

Stack Targets: Andrew Heaney, Jordan Zimmermann, Chris Tillman, Marco Gonzales, Austin Pruitt, Ian Kennedy, Antonio Senzatela, Lucas Sims, Daniel Gossett

4. SaberSim Says…

Scherzer, Kluber, Samardzija, Nola, and Severino are the preferred arms this evening. Top bats include Nolan Arenado, Charlie Blackmon, Miguel Cabrera, Justin Upton, and Nelson Cruz. You can probably mentally sub Mike Trout for Miggy. Cabrera also top the values list along with Jason Heyward, Andrew McCutchen, and Ben Zobrist.

5. The Daily Grind Invitational

Last Friday, schweitz1986 built on his dominating lead. He got away with rostered 0.9 points from Michael Wacha due to big performances from Josh Bell, Freddy Galvis, Rhys Hoskins, and Giancarlo Stanton. Congrats and leaderboard.

I’m experimenting with multiple lineups on DraftKings so we’re going to be playing there much more often. We’ll stick with our new usual 15 owners.