Given how abysmally he had pitched over the last two-and-a-half weeks, it seemed clear that Bud Norris was going to lose his job as the Angels’ closer. Given how Mike Scioscia had been using his relievers, it seemed nearly as clear that Blake Parker was going to replace him. Parker had been pitching frequently in the eighth inning, usually in close games. Erstwhile closer Cam Bedrosian had recently been relegated to the middle innings, and when he pitched the eighth inning on Tuesday, setting up Keynan Middleton’s first career save, it was because Scioscia was trying to manage Parker’s workload (as mentioned in Wednesday’s Bullpen Report).

So naturally, when Scioscia replaced Tyler Skaggs in the seventh inning of Thursday’s game against the Mariners and needed to call on someone to preserve a 3-0 lead, he brought Parker out. And when he needed a closer in the bottom of the ninth, he used Bedrosian, who incidentally provided a perfect inning.
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The season numbers aren’t great but we’ve picked up some steam over the last few weeks and hopefully will finish strong. As always, if you have any suggestions or tips, please feel free to mention them in the comments section, and thank you for reading.

Here’s how we’re doing so far this season (through half of Week 17)

29-32 record
4.75 ERA
7.6 K/9
2.4 K/BB
1.43 WHIP
35 quality starts

Here are this week’s recs (with team wRC+ for this season in parentheses):

RHP Jerad Eickhoff – 14.9% ESPN – @SD (85), @SF (82)

Oh man, this is a great week for Eickhoff. The talented righty who has had a bit of a rough season gets two of the bottom-three offenses in the game. Of course, he plays for the fourth-worst, but we can’t get too tied up in that, can we? Since his ERA peaked at 5.22 a couple months ago, Eickhoff has been really, really good, too: 3.10 ERA, 38-17 K/BB ratio in 40.2 innings and a .240/.324/.380 line against. I’ll always bet on talent like this. Read the rest of this entry »

Quickly identifying legitimate breakout hitters is tough. Is the hot streak just that, a streak or is something more? With pitchers, it is easier to find the breakout’s cause. New pitch. Added velocity. Improved control. These traits can be seen in a single start after facing 25+ batters. A hitter has only about five plate appearances a game to display a new skill. It’s a different world with them. Today, I am going to try to find a simple process with a few key stats to focus on.

With hitters, their data contains so much noise, especially once the ball is put into play. To get rid of some of this noise, I started to find with the following stats:

• Power: Hard%, HR/FB
• Plate Discipline: BB%, K%, O-Swing%, Contact%
• Batted Ball Distribution: Pull%, Flyball%

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Chat transcript is below!

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My favorite part of this year’s World Baseball Classic, aside from the baseball, obviously, was the television broadcasts’ frequent reference to players’ swing speeds. I was floored, even if only because I didn’t know (but should’ve known) we had the technology capable of measuring it. Regarding Major League Baseball and Statcast’s adoption of such a metric, a little birdy told me I shouldn’t hold my breath. Disappointed, I moved on.

Then yesterday, while fooling around in Baseball Savant’s Statcast database trying to diagnose the misalignment of Miguel Cabrera’s outcomes with his peripherals, I noticed the database query’s “sort by” function offered an option to sort by “estimated swing speed.” A quick Google search indicates to me the Statcast and MLB Advanced Media team(s) has (have) yet to formally announce this; sprint speed has been the more exciting recent development, apparently.

Not to me! I quickly got to work querying the data. I also quickly learned downloading the raw data files that underpin the swing speed summaries previously linked do not include swing speed, which is unhelpful. In other words, swing speed is not communicated to us from Baseball Savant’s organs on a play-by-play basis. I imagine this is by design. So, I was resigned to running a single query that summarized swing speed data at a high level: the average swing speed for every hitter with at least 100 at-bats in a given season, from 2015 through 2017.

Here’s what I found.

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It’s once again time for a macro level view of the ottoneu landscape, and as of the end of July the teams involved in championship races are well known. Let’s take a look at the top performing teams and leagues:

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Episode 287 – Homer Hunting With Matt Olson

The latest episode of “Field of Streams” is live!

In this episode, Dylan Higgins and Matthew Dewoskin discuss the weird streaming year so far, a podcast schedule adjustment, not trusting Paul Blackburn, prospects that never delivered on their potential, Reynaldo Lopez’s White Sox debut, Matt’s new segment name, the mediocrity of Matthew Boyd, a new nickname for Curtis Granderson, Matt picking against his own pitcher again, Nicky Delmonico and Garrett Cooper, Melky Cabrera’s return to Chicago, and the custom jerseys of Players Weekend.

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Today’s Prospect Stock Watch takes a look at the Reds’ top prospect, a Rockies third baseman without a home and a military hero who’s going to make his MLB debut on Saturday.

Nick Senzel, 3B, Reds: Cincinnati is starting to build a pretty impressive system but the cream of the crop continues to be 2016 second overall draft pick Senzel. He’s split the 2017 season between high-A and double-A with a combined .320 average and .947 OPS. He has just 11 homers in 106 games but the 38 doubles hint at more over-the-fence pop to come as he matures as a hitter. Senzel also runs unusually well for a third baseman and has good athleticism – both of which make him a very well-rounded player who could threaten to have a 20-20 season early in his MLB career if so motivated. He should also be an above-average fielder at the hot corner. Cincinnati’s home park has turned Eugenio Suarez into a productive player for the Reds but his days of being the starter at third base should come to an end sometime in 2018 when Senzel descends upon the position.

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We’re in the dog days of the season now. Every little edge you can get with a player can be a major difference. You have to manage to your standings, not just the most talented players. It’d be great to find another Tommy Pham or Chris Taylor, but there is plenty of luck involved with something like that. Instead, let’s find some skilled players who could help us in a category or two and maybe it’ll all come together for a two month stretch of their peak which has them playing like one of those out-of-nowhere superstars.

Marcus Semien (OAK, SS)

Semien has been a solid power-speed shortstop the last couple seasons, especially if you can plan around his poor batting average (averaged 21 HR, 10 SB, .247 AVG in 2015-16). He hasn’t had a real shot to improve upon those numbers this year as a bruised wrist popped up in mid-April and left him sidelined for 74 games. He’s been back since early-July and after ramping up over a few games, he has really heated up over his last 20: .306/.366/.459, 3 HR, 2 SB in 93 PA. He’s making great contact during the run with a tiny 6% soft contact rate and keeping the strikeout rate palatable at 21% (compared to 24% for his career). A shortstop with guaranteed playing time and diverse fantasy skills could be a beast for extended stretches. In June and July of last year, he only hit .238 but popped 12 HR with 7 SB.

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I wanted to go with “No Column for Old Enns,” but I decided the pun was too tortured for the headline. However, it’s just tortured enough for the first sentence.

AGENDA

1. So Here’s the Deal
2. Weather Reports
3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
4. SaberSim Says…
5. TDG Invitational

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