Today at the Prospect Stock Watch we’re taking a look at the value of three catching prospects from around the minor leagues. One has long been considered a top catching prospect, while the other two have come on quickly and are trying to shake the label of “future back-up backstop.”

Danny Jansen, C, Blue Jays: Drafted out of high school by the Jays in 2013, Jansen showed a lot of promise in rookie ball before injuries basically wiped out his 2015-16 seasons. Healthy again (and playing with glasses), Jansen has re-discovered his stroke and earned a promotion to double-A after just 31 games in high-A ball. He has solid defence and the offensive uptick has Jansen looking like a future first-stringer and eventual replacement for Russell Martin. The 34-year-old incumbent still has two years remaining on his deal after 2017 so Jansen likely won’t see regular at-bats until 2019 (if Martin starts playing more infield) or 2020. In his prime, the catching prospect should hit for a solid average with gap power and make lots of contact.

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Today’s edition comes equipped with an excerpt for certain RotoGraphs delivery devices.

AGENDA

1. It’s Happ-ening
2. Weather Reports
3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
4. Hitters to Use
5. SaberSim Says…
6. TDG Invitational Returns!

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Episode 269 – Horseshoes and hand grenades

The latest episode of “Field of Streams” is live!

In this episode, Dylan Higgins and Matthew Dewoskin discuss just missing with their podcast picks over the weekend, Dylan poorly framing a bad guessing game with Mike Fiers splits, a look at David Paulino, the return of Jeff Locke, considering the Field of Streams Mount Rushmore, not having a clue how to pronounce Dinelson Lamet’s name, checking out Paul DeJong, Francisco Liriano’s hilarious splits, and Dylan once again picking against one team for an entire series.

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Last week, I began my examination of in-season BABIP with a look at how the league was utilizing the defensive shift and individual players were being shifted versus last season. It was a precursor to identifying and discussing where hitters currently stand with regards to my new xBABIP equation, which was developed earlier in the year and accounts for defensive shifts. So let’s dive into the hitters who have overachieved the most, meaning their BABIP marks are significantly higher than their xBABIPs.

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The Roto Riteup would like to know, which is worse:

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Plenty of compelling bullpen activity around the major leagues on a busy Sunday afternoon…

Koda Glover was brought into an existing eighth inning with a 6-4 lead, two outs, and a runner on second. He retired Jed Lowrie to end the inning, then the Nationals proceeded to score five runs in a long top of the ninth. Despite the 11-4 lead and lengthy half inning, Glover came back out for the bottom of the ninth, and he allowed four straight singles and a walk before being replaced by Shawn Kelley with the bases loaded, no outs, and two runs already in. After retiring Rajai Davis on a shallow fly ball, Kelley served up a grand slam to Matt Joyce that made it 11-10 Nationals. Kelley retired the next two batters he faced to secure the victory. When it was all said and done, Glover was charged with five earned runs in 0.1 innings, and Kelley was charged with one earned run in one inning.

Despite today’s craziness, Glover has brought much-needed calm to the Nationals bullpen as of late. He has four saves since May 24, and before today, he had recorded saves in four straight appearances. This was the first time Glover has allowed a run in 10 appearances since he landed on the disabled list with a left hip impingement in late April. Even with today’s meltdown, Glover has a 1.74 FIP and 3.21 xFIP on the season. A 3.21 xFIP is hardly something to scoff at, and it seems as if the Nationals have finally found their ninth-inning man (although it remains probable they’ll target bullpen help before the trading deadline). The home run Kelley gave up was the seventh he’s allowed in 15 innings this season, and overall, he has a 5.40 ERA and 5.37 xFIP. As such, he has been surpassed on the grid by Matt Albers, who boasts a strong 1.29 ERA and 3.14 xFIP in 21 innings this year. Read the rest of this entry »

6/4/17

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 18, the best baseball strategy game ever made – available NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms! Go to ootpdevelopments.com to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER18!

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Strategy Section:

OWNED BUT DO YOU START? (7:20)

• Gio Gonzalez at LAD, TEX
• Jose Quintana at TB, at CLE
• Masahiro Tanaka BOS, BAL
• Robbie Ray SD, MIL

SHALLOW (14:25)

• Adam Wainwright at CIN, PHI (15:02)
• Sean Manaea TOR, at TB (17:05)
• Antonio Senzatela CLE, at CHC (18:40)
• Drew Pomeranz at NYY, DET (18:34)
• JA Happ at OAK, at SEA (18:14)

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Another week, another Grind, another barrage of home runs.

AGENDA

1. A Big Day
2. Weather Reports
3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
4. SaberSim Says…

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We’re back for another week of #2xSP, and I’ve opted not to include Sean Manaea (v. TOR, @TBR) because even through he’s under our 50% regulation (46.2% ESPN), I still don’t feel like he’d be available in that many leagues. If he is in yours, I would pounce all over that, of course.

Here’s how we’re doing so far this season (through half of Week 8):

17-13 record
4.25 ERA
7.8 K/9
2.2 K/BB
1.45 WHIP
16 quality starts

Here are this week’s recs (with team wRC+ for this season in parentheses):

RHP Joe Musgrove – 6.6% ESPN – @KCR (76), v. LAA (92)

Musgrove is expected to come off the disabled list to make this start. If he doesn’t, we’ll default to Jaime Garcia (15.7 percent, v. PHI, v. NYM). If he does, he’s been fairly solid lately — including seven shutout innings against a sturdy O’s offense last time out — with a couple really, really nice matchups this week. The Royals have been dreadful offensively all season, and this is the perfect time to catch the Mike Trout-less Angels, who are also without Cameron Maybin, too.

RHP Dinelson Lamet – 13.8% ESPN – v. ARI (97), v. KCR (76)

We’re gambling here with a guy who has made just two career starts spanning 10 innings, but man have they been good: three earned runs (2.70 ERA), 16-3 K/BB ratio and .211 batting average against. We’d be more skeptical if he hadn’t shut down the Cubs last time out, and these two matchups are pretty solid as well — especially the Royals one. Lamet throws gas (95.4 mph average fastball) and in a very limited sampling, his slider (24.2 percent whiff rate) and changeup (16.1 percent) have been dirty.

RHP Junior Guerra – 17.7% ESPN – v. SF (74), @ARI (97)

Guerra is a layup at this point. He’s somehow still owned in under 20 percent of leagues — of course, the injury plays a huge part in that — but since coming off the disabled list he’s been very good, as he’s at a 1.84 ERA this season with 13 strikeouts and a .151 BAA through 14.2 innings. Like each of the others this week, he’s got one terrific matchup and one that is so-so. He’s basically on the reverse Lamet gamut. We’ll see who handles it better, but my money’s on Guerra, the 32-year-old sophomore. Maybe they’ll both rack up a couple quality starts. Wouldn’t that be nice?

Before getting on with the business of breaking down Friday’s bullpen developments, there was one closer situation worth checking in on from Thursday’s short slate of games. The Angels brought a 2-1 lead into the ninth inning against the Twins, and manager Mike Scioscia entrusted it to Jose Alvarez, rather than Bud Norris. The Twins had Max Kepler, Jorge Polanco and Eddie Rosario coming up — in other words, a pair of lefties sandwiching a switch hitter who is batting .218 against southpaws. As it turned out, Alvarez blew the save and was tagged with the loss, as he stuck around long enough to give up a single to Jason Castro (another lefty) that scored Polanco and Rosario.

Norris came in after the Castro single to face Brian Dozier, so this had the look of a closer platoon. However, Scioscia told reporters he did not bring Norris in to start the ninth inning because of his lingering knee soreness. While Huston Street has had a setback in his rehab stint, experiencing tightness in his right triceps, Cam Bedrosian is expected back next week. Not only are Norris’ days as the Angels’ closer possibly numbered, but it doesn’t appear he will be a reliable source of saves between now and when Bedrosian returns. Read the rest of this entry »