Prospect Stock Watch: Jansen, Kelly, Stubbs

Today at the Prospect Stock Watch we’re taking a look at the value of three catching prospects from around the minor leagues. One has long been considered a top catching prospect, while the other two have come on quickly and are trying to shake the label of “future back-up backstop.”

Danny Jansen, C, Blue Jays: Drafted out of high school by the Jays in 2013, Jansen showed a lot of promise in rookie ball before injuries basically wiped out his 2015-16 seasons. Healthy again (and playing with glasses), Jansen has re-discovered his stroke and earned a promotion to double-A after just 31 games in high-A ball. He has solid defence and the offensive uptick has Jansen looking like a future first-stringer and eventual replacement for Russell Martin. The 34-year-old incumbent still has two years remaining on his deal after 2017 so Jansen likely won’t see regular at-bats until 2019 (if Martin starts playing more infield) or 2020. In his prime, the catching prospect should hit for a solid average with gap power and make lots of contact.

Carson Kelly, C, Cardinals: Yadier Molina — a mainstay in St. Louis for 14 years — signed a three-year extension in the offseason but it seems unlikely that the 34-year-old catcher will be catching the lion’s share of the games by the end. Coinciding beautifully with veteran’s slow demise, Kelly is having a breakout season with the bat at triple-A. He started to hit more consistently for average last year while splitting time between double-A and triple-A but he’s added more pop this season. After hitting 23 extra base hits last year in 96 games (six homers), Kelly already has 16 extra base hits (seven homers) in 39 games. His line drive rate is an excellent 25.6% and he’s walking more than ever, too. The catching prospect isn’t going to get everyday at-bats at the big league level this year or probably next — unless Molina gets hurt — so you’ll have to be patient with this talented prospect.

Garrett Stubbs, C, Astros: Of the three catchers listed in here, Stubbs perhaps has the biggest question mark surrounding future offensive potential. He wasn’t a great hitter in college but he was solid in his first two pro seasons before scuffling a bit at the double-A level in 2017. Still, he’s showing athleticism on defence and on the base paths (He’s a strong base runner for a catcher and is 29-for-35 in attempts over the past 2+ seasons). Stubbs is also showing an excellent eye with a BB-K rate of 18-17 in 37 games. He’s probably not going to hit for a great average in The Show and the gap power is inconsistent. However, both his defence and leadership are so strong that he’ll have a long big league career as a second-stringer. If the offence becomes more consistent, he’ll be a regular for the Astros once Brian McCann hangs ‘em up.





Marc Hulet has been writing at FanGraphs since 2008. His work focuses on prospects and fantasy. Follow him on Twitter @marchulet.

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wallin2199
6 years ago

Thoughts on Zack Collins staying behind the dish? I’ve read he’s made some mechanical adjustments that have improved his pop time.