Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – March 3rd, 2017
by Paul Sporer
March 3, 2017
Chat transcript is below!
Archive for March, 2017
Mixing Fantasy & Reality: Price and Gray
David Price is visiting every renowned elbow surgeon in the country getting an opinion on his elbow. Currently, the news has improved from definite Tommy John surgery to maybe not.
Price will receive opinions from both Andrews and ElAttrache in Indianapolis tomorrow, tweets Britton. (The renowned surgeons are both there for this week’s NFL combine.) Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald tweets that Farrell said the initial MRI revealed some swelling and fluid buildup but offered “inconclusive” results overall. Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe tweets that Price himself is optimistic that the injury isn’t serious.
Price’s injury is this year’s second reminder (Alex Reyes) of the fragile nature of pitchers. I believe experienced owners don’t pay for pitchers because they lost a high-priced arm in the past. The memory is too strong and they don’t want to experience the situation again. A pitcher’s price must be discounted enough so the owner can stomach a lost season.
2017 Ottoneu FGpts Rankings: SP/RP
We’ve been rolling through our ottoneu FanGraphs points league rankings. This year the rankings will include values from myself, Justin Vibber, and Chad Young. We are presenting our individual dollar values, the average of all three individuals, plus the ranking of that average. In addition the tables below include Ottoneu eligibility (5 games started/10 games played in the prior year). Players are ranked at their most valuable position, and the hierarchy we are using is C/SS/2B/3B/OF/1B (with 3B and OF being a coin toss in terms of replacement level, we chose to include 3B/OF eligibles at 3B).
Prior Rankings: C/1B/3B, 2B/SS, OF
Key:
Split – Difference from highest to lowest $ value
Otto.– Average price across Ottoneu FGpts leagues
AVG. – Average $ value from the four of us
(+/-) – Difference between Ottoneu average price and our average $ value
Joc Pederson – Inexplicably Underrated
Maybe it’s shiny-new-toy syndrome. Perhaps it’s the poor batting average (.246 last year and .224 through 1,099 plate appearances in the Majors). It could also be a sizable platoon split that’s resulted in limited opportunities to date against southpaws. Whatever the reason or reasons, Joc Pederson’s ADP in NFBC drafts is just outside of pick 200 (201.95), and he’s barely cracking the top-50 outfielders selected (47th).
At his current cost, the soon-to-be 25-year-old outfielder has to merely repeat his 2016 production to deliver on his ADP after ranking as the 44th most valuable outfielder last year. It seems crazy that his ADP doesn’t bake in any potential improvement, and there are reasons beyond his youth to buy into major gains being made by the center fielder in 2017. Read the rest of this entry »
Proper Etiquette – Know Your Rivals
by Brad Johnson
March 3, 2017
On Tuesday, I wrote about a trade offer a buddy of mine received in a dynasty league. He was offered Nolan Arenado and Dallas Keuchel for Andrew Benintendi, Miguel Sano, Rafael Devers, Josh Bell, and a 2018 draft pick. The comments devolved into a discussion of trade negotiation etiquette. Gross, right?
To be clear, I’m a believer in the old adage “you catch more flies with honey than vinegar.” At least as it applies to getting what you want from other people. If you ever happen to have a fly infestation in your house or apartment, I highly recommend putting a funnel over a cup of vinegar. You will catch ALL of the flies. You could smear a thick layer of honey over an entire counter and not catch one fly. Whoever made up that saying didn’t know anything about flies.
The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 433 – Phillies Phinally Phormidable?
by Paul Sporer
March 2, 2017
3/2/17
The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!
Follow us on Twitter
Leading Off: Question of the Day
- How do you utilize Spring Training for fantasy gain? (1:15)
Notable Transactions/Rumors/Articles/Game Play
- David Price scratched w/elbow (5:20)
- Hanley Ramirez out of WBC bc of shoulder
- Andrew Cashner shut down w/bicep injury (16:00)
- Nats could release Derek Norris
Podcast: Play in new window | Download
Subscribe: RSS
ADP to Replacement Player Projected Stats Spreadsheet
Necessity is the mother of invention. –Plato
I wanted to know how owners were valuing Michael Brantley’s playing time. Currently, at NFBC, he is going 233rd overall in NFBC drafts. Over a full season, he is projected to be more productive than the two outfielders going right before him, Carlos Beltran and Randal Grichuk. Owners, via calculations or their gut, are significantly downgrading a full season Brantley. But by how much? I needed to find the league replacement value.
I could go through all the whole league setting and final the values like I did for my Tout Wars league. While I recommend this detailed procedure for any league an owner takes seriously. I was just looking for a quick answer and stumbled upon one while looking over my Fantrax league.
Our friends at FanTrax.com have their players listed with projected stats and ADP. Having both downloadable made a projection sheet quickly come together.
Backup Backstops
I feel like every year we’re out here saying Travis d’Arnaud has had a lost season. He has injured a different part of his body each time, too. That is probably the most gut wrenching part. This isn’t a guy who suffered some chronic issue, like a bad back or a bum knee. Instead, he suffered a broken wrist from a hit by pitch, and a broken foot from a foul ball, and a hyper extended elbow from a collision at the plate. Every year it is something different. In 2016, he had four problems:
Deep League Draft Targets – Second Base
Welcome to this third installment of Deep League Draft Targets, an exploration of each position’s middle and late tier players. Where mediocrity abounds, value is found. Where one man’s trash is another man’s backup left-handed platoon option.
In previous editions, we covered first base, touching on Fangraphs-favorites, Tommy Joseph and Justin Bour. The week before, Tyler Flowers, Mike Zunino, and Andrew Susac, called for our attention behind the dish. Today, we move onto second base, a position that in past seasons drew the ire of many a fantasy owner but that the roto community has lately characterized as “groin-grabbingly deep.” But is it really?
Non-Closers Who Could Keep the Job If They Got It
No term annoys a sabermetrically-inclined fantasy player more than Proven Closer. As far as baseball has come in the last decade, I still won’t feel confident that Shawn Kelley, for example, will be given an opportunity to close until the ball is in his hands in his first ninth inning this season. That said, I think the casual rebuttal of Anyone Can Close misses the mark in the opposite direction. Any reliever might perform well in high-leverage situations, but a traditional closer faces an extra challenge that most setup men do not: he has to regularly face batters from both sides of the plate.
For most pitchers, it is more difficult to get opposite-handed hitters out than same-handed hitters. Since 2010, relievers who have faced at least 100 batters from both sides of the plate have averaged a platoon split of 44 points of wOBA, and that sample is biased toward relievers teams are comfortable using against batters from both sides. Many relievers, and not just LOOGYs, rarely face hitters on the opposite side of the plate because of the challenge.