Over the last two weeks I took a look at the top potential rookies for 2017. In most of those cases it wasn’t difficult to see how they might receive significant playing time during the coming season. Today, I’m taking a look at some players that might be MLB-ready in 2017 but lack clear paths to significant playing time.

Amed Rosario, SS, Mets: I first wrote about Rosario in 2014 when I deemed him the sleeper prospect in the system heading into 2015. Jump forward a few years and he’s undeniably the top prospect in their system and right up there as the top shortstop in baseball with Gleyber Torres and Dansby Swanson (who already has big league experience). Just 21, Rosario has shown the ability to be an elite defender at shortstop and should hit for a strong average with gap power (10-15 homers possible in his prime) and enough speed to net 15-20 bags. In New York, the club has shortstop covered by veterans Asdrubal Cabrera and Jose Reyes, both of whom are set to become free agents after the 2017 season — likely opening the door permanently for Rosario. Until then, though, he’ll spend the majority of the coming year at triple-A where he has yet to play after splitting 2016 between high-A and double-A.

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This past Thursday, I spoke at the SABR Analytics conference on my per pitch valuations (pERA).  I originally created them to form an understandable framework for comparing prospect pitching grades and major league results. Some byproducts of the work became useful like the effects of dropping a pitch. Today, I will make available new information I provided at the conference.

For the readers who aren’t familiar with the original work, it can be read in its 2500 word entirety in this previous article. Here is a summary.

• The key is to give each pitch an ERA value (pERA) based on the pitch’s swinging strike and groundball rates. All the values are based on the average values for starting pitcher. Closers will have higher grades because their stuff plays better coming out of the bullpen.
• The pitcher’s control is determined from their walk rate which is separate from the pitch grades.
• Each pitch is placed on the 20-80 scale with 50 being average, 80 great, and 20 horrible.

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This article has happened before, and it will happen again. Every year, fantasy owners pour their resources into players on good teams. It makes perfect sense too. A “good team” scores a lot of runs, prevents runs, or both. That correlates nicely with most of the categories we track in the standard 5×5.

However, good teams also don’t take many risks on unproven talents. They start the season with extra depth, and they acquire more at the trade deadline as needed. Ryan Schimpf and Alex Dickerson wouldn’t have emerged as fringe-roto names if they had been in the Red Sox system. Today, let’s talk about some bad teams.

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The Pod Projections are back! My projections are based on the methodology shared in my eBook Projecting X 2.0, and the process continues to evolve and improve.

2017 Pod Projections Index:
Lance McCullers
David Dahl
Keon Broxton

Last night, I needed some inspiration. Who would be tomorrow’s Pod Projection? So I asked my Twitter followers and received a slew of options. Ultimately, I landed on a player I never considered for this honor and was “voted” on by just one tweeter. Trea Turner was so good last season over just 324 plate appearances that he finished 12th in value among second basemen. He essentially matched Ben Zobrist’s value in only about half the plate appearances!

And while we throw the term sample size around all the time and stress the importance of concepts like regression, fantasy owners are closing their ears and yelling lalalalala, because they love their Trea and there’s nothing you could do about it. He’s being selected 10th overall on average in NFBC drafts and has even apparently gone first overall, while he also holds an ADP of 13.5 in Fantrax drafts. Are fantasy owners nuts or is this not a repeat case of Carlos Correa and overvaluing a small sample?

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Welcome to the RotoGraphs Matchmaker Service. No, I cannot find you a date. However, we could hopefully facilitate the marriage of league owner with leagueless owner. If you are seeking an owner to fill your fantasy league or are the owner hoping to be seeked (how is that not a word?) to join that unfilled league, this is your new home. In the comments, please advertise your league openings or your availability and desire to join a league. To make things easier, it would be helpful to include the details of the league you’re seeking to fill or prefer to join in the following format:

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Chat transcript is below:

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Well, it’s Friday. As we head into the weekend, I wanted to take some time to address some ottoneu thoughts and tactics I’ve been ruminating on over the past week. If you’ve read any of my buying generic series, you likely know that I try to entertain all possibilities and look for value when consensus seems to move in one direction. I’m also constantly on the hunt for ways to operate more efficiently. So these are my current thoughts as I consider the ottoneu landscape. Let’s discuss these in the comments. If I’m missing anything, or these tactics seem off, please let me know.

Might David Price present a buying opportunity?

When we released our starting pitcher rankings a week ago, each of Chad, Justin, and myself had David price between $24-$25 as we head into the 2017 Ottoneu season. This was around the same time that a news of a potential injury broke. According to Jim Bowden, there is concern that Price might need tommy john surgery. If he has tommy john, Price will not be a $25 pitcher. However, Price will be reevaluated today and, according to John Farrell, could play catch again tomorrow.

Well it seems like opinions are all over the map on this one.

Let’s start with what we know. Price injured his elbow, leading many to think Tommy John surgery was necessary. However, even though he has received multiple opinions on his elbow from Dr. James Andrews and Dr. Neal ElAttrach,  it doesn’t appear that he is in any hurry to have surgery, and may be on a quicker recovery time than we realize (based on Farrell’s comments). So what does this mean for Ottoneu?

From the Ottoneu Rules Sec V:
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It’s not wise to put too much stock in spring training performances. Having said that, there are games being played and stats being generated. Some guys are coming back from injuries, others are tinkering with mechanics and many are fighting for roster spots or playing time. With that in mind, a few players were of interest to me when combing over spring training stats. Read the rest of this entry »

We’re getting ready to post our March fantasy rankings. I believe they’ll roll out starting next week. RotoGraphs isn’t the only place to publish my rankings though. Over at RotoBaller, we’re on our fourth round of updates, having started in December.

To accompany the February round, we ran a series of rankings disputes. Players with wide discrepancies like Albert Pujols – 60 picks between the highest and lowest (me) rankers – were debated. The point was to show how different player evaluation approaches can produce different projections and rankings. Instead, I discovered that I usually agreed with the other guy. Our different rankings had nothing to do with the expected stats. The issue was our managerial preferences.

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During the past three weeks, I’ve been reviewing the 12 rookie hitters and 12 rookie pitchers that could make signifiant waves in Major League Baseball — and help your fantasy squad — in 2017. Last week, I took a look at the first six pitchers and today I’ll be reviewing the final six. You can also read Part 1 and Part 2 for the freshman hitters.

Potential Impact Rookie Pitchers for 2017 (part 2 of 2):

Anthony Banda, LHP, Diamondbacks: Arizona will likely trot out a starting rotation made up entirely of pitchers drafted, signed and developed by other organizations. Banda is another import — and was also a lesser known prospect until recently. A former Brewers draft pick, the southpaw has seen his velocity spike in the past year and he now sits far more consistently in the mid-90s. Add in a plus curveball and decent changeup and you have a pretty interesting arm. Banda has the stuff to dominate hitters and develop into a strikeout pitcher. He’s also shown his durability by compiling more than 150 innings in each of the past two seasons and could be set for 175+ innings in 2017. Banda, 23, will likely split the year between triple-A and the Majors but he’ll need an injury — or for another pitcher to stumble — before he gets his first shot at The Show.

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