I just got done entering my catchers for our positional rankings series. After the first dozen players, I noticed the selection turns south quickly. The cliff happens around the 15th guy off the board. I think owners need to have a plan going into a draft or auction on how they want to approach the situation. Here are my ideas this year for different league sizes.

10-Team, 1 Catcher (#1 to #10)

• Buster Posey
• Gary Sanchez
• Jonathan Lucroy
• Russell Martin
• Yasmani Grandal
• Willson Contreras
• Salvador Perez
• Stephen Vogt
• Yadier Molina
• Brian McCann

I am fine with any of the above being my catcher.

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As much fun as it is to take over an existing team and rebuild it, there’s no better fantasy baseball experience than a first-year ottoneu auction. Spending seven or so hours assembling a 40 man roster takes preparation, focus, and flexibility, but it’s also an exhilarating experience filled with triumph and surprises. I just wrapped up a two night first-year auction earlier this week (my first auction of the season!), and I wanted to review some of the average auction prices based on that league and two other first year leagues that have already drafted (ottoneu FGPts format).

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Yesterday, I used my Way Too Early rankings and our RotoGraphs outfield rankings to discuss my five biggest deviations from consensus. The comments were just a tad grumpy about my decision to focus on the Mitch Hanigers and Lonnie Chisenhalls of the world. Let it be said that I’m a man of the people. Here are five more deviations from consensus – this time focused on stars*.

*Loosely defined…

To me, these are the interesting players to discuss. I’m so tired of writing about Andrew McCutchen (spoiler, I’ll be writing about McCutchen). I’m going to let somebody else draft McCutchen this year. I’m not inclined to take the risk. My ranking reflects that decision. I can elaborate, but it’ll be tedious. You ready?

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Let’s now follow up yesterday’s 2017 BABIP decliners list by looking back at who the new xBABIP would have convinced us to avoid heading into the 2016 season. Like I did when validating xBABIP using the surgers, I’ll compare how the would-have-been 2016 list performed versus their 2015 xBABIP and 2016 Steamer projections.

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2/14/17

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer
• @enosarris
• @jasoncollette
• @almelchiorBB
• @paulkastava

LABR Draft

Jason and I talk through our first handful of rounds for Monday night’s LABR Mixed Draft. The results of which you can find by clicking here.

We shifted to the chat after that and you can find the transcript here.

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We’re preempting the promised report on the first half of our NFBC slow draft to offer some information that, for a change, you might find useful. Stats, Inc. keeps track of Average Draft Position in NFBC drafts, starting with the earliest drafts in late 2016 and updating as the preseason heats up. We’ve been tracking the tracker—following the movement in ADPs– and have seen some interesting things.

When we studied this recently, there had been 46 NFBC drafts (there have now been 57; the trends we report below have mostly continued, and none of them, with one exception noted below, has reversed itself). The NFBC ADP at that time of course reflected the average of all those drafts. We knew what the ADP after 34 drafts had been, and we calculated the separate ADP of the next 12. We figured—accurately, it appears—that the all-drafts ADP would mask some interesting developments. Read the rest of this entry »

2/14/17

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer
• @enosarris
• @jasoncollette
• @almelchiorBB
• @paulkastava

LABR Planning

Jason and I discuss our gameplan for Monday night’s LABR Mixed Draft. The results of which you can find by clicking here.

• General Ideas
• First Round
• Outfield
• Catcher
• First Base
• Third Base
• Shortstop
• Second Base
• Pitching

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The San Francisco Giants of recent history have mystified the baseball world. Three unexpected World Series championships in five seasons will have that effect on people. In the mid-2000s, Giants fans endured teams that were Barry Bonds or bust. When Pablo Sandoval was named an All-Star in 2011, he became the first homegrown Giants position player to be so honored since Matt Williams in 1996.

All that has changed. Call it what you wish: Devil Magic, Pixie Dust, or Just Plain Luck. Any way you slice it, the modern Giants have churned out above-average position players at an above-average rate. Sandoval, Buster Posey, Brandon Crawford, Brandon Belt, Joe Panik, and Matt Duffy have all made their mark on the big leagues since 2009, and most have been unexpected contributors to unexpected title runs. Read the rest of this entry »

Usually after out-of-nowhere 30 home run seasons, the thought is to sell high. Fantasy baseball, and dynasty specifically given the nature of the competitors in the league likely being more adept than the average league, is not played in a vacuum. The other players have as much access to advanced statistics and trends as you do, so the price of a player is often up for debate.
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In case you somehow missed it, our RotoGraphs February rankings series has begun with outfielders. I’m here today to discuss my five biggest deviations from the consensus. I’ve disqualified a few players like Avisail Garcia, who I’ve been saying is terrible for the last half decade. Unsurprisingly, I still won’t be picking him.

These five players should be more relevant. I listed my rank, the RotoGraphs consensus, and my Way Too Early Outfielders ranking.

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