11/22/16
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OK, don’t get me wrong, I enjoyed writing about second basemen, but that sucker ran 2500 words. That’s kinda nuts, especially for a November first run that only covered 15 players. Anyway, I’m back and this time with third base, but we’re going to change up the format a bit. Instead of diving in on all 15, we’ll look at the top 10 and then group a bunch more. You’ll see, it’s going to be awesome, don’t worry.
Third base is interesting. It’s really stacked up top with as many as four first rounders and then another handful sure to go within the first 5-6 rounds.
Nolan Arenado | Rockies – I’m not sure you can go wrong between Arenado and Bryant, but I lean Arenado. He has back-to-back 40+ HR-130+ RBI seasons while also doubling his walk rate and shaving a bit off of his strikeout rate this past season. His road OPS the last two seasons is .834, easily the team’s best and well above the .676 mark that the Rockies have posted as a team on the road. There’s no denying he benefits heavily from Coors, but he doesn’t lose all of it on the road which is what takes him from very good player to top-of-the-heap superstar.
Last offseason, Jeff Sullivan noted the dramatic changes George Springer made to his contact and pull rates and how that transformation appeared to make the Astros’ right fielder a safer bet going forward. He also noted that, given the inconsistency between the results of Springer’s first two years in the majors, it was still hard to know what to expect in Season No. 3.
The suspense is over. The 2016 season is in the books, yet it’s not entirely clear what sort of performer Springer will be in 2017. We can certainly look more confidently to Springer to provide plenty of plate appearances. Not only did he serve ably as the Astros’ leadoff hitter for most of the season, but unlike in his first two seasons, Springer stayed healthy, appearing in all 162 games and starting all but one.
Imagine your prototypical outfielder. What does he look like? What did he look like in 2010? The numbers say he’s changed a bit. Where he might have been Jermaine Dye or a late-career Moises Alou back then, today’s outfielder looks a little bit more like Ian Desmond or Tyler Naquin. That probably has ramifications on what you expect, generally, from your outfield.
This is the sixth edition of a continuing series. If you missed the previous rounds, catchers, first basemen, second basemen, third basemen, and shortstops can be found via the links. Yesterday, we evaluated what outfielders did in 2016. Today, we’ll take a first stab at ranking them for 2017.
As a reminder, these rankings represent my first reactions rather than a truly rigorous approach. I’ve used an absolutely objective technique called mental math to compile the lists. I’m assuming a standard 5×5 format.
The purpose of this exercise is two-fold: to get an early start on 2017 rankings and to crowdsource missing or misranked players. That’s where you come in. Let your thoughts and feelings be known in the comments. As we’ve done in previous editions, we’ll break this into digestible chunks.
Outfield is a very large position. I’ll be focusing written analysis on the players who most interest me. There’s a very high likelihood some players have slipped through the cracks – either because I only ranked them at another position or missed them entirely.
I swore when I started at RotoGraphs that I’d never write any self-serving articles about my fantasy teams. But I also swore that I’d start bringing in lunch to work, that I’d never pay more than $10 for a bottle of beer, or force my child to root for the A’s while growing up in Seattle. Today, I’m having pho for lunch after paying an unpalatable amount yesterday for a merely palatable beer. And this is my one-year old son’s room.
But 2016 marked my first foray into the world of Ottoneu and, as such, this is my first Ottoneu off-season. Admittedly, a little intimated after a decade of playing only roto and head-to-head leagues on the standard sites, a few friends of mine took the plunge and created an Ottoneu 4×4 league. I can’t really tell you why we decided to go roto instead of the full FanGraphs points experience but it doesn’t really matter. I’m hooked. So, when the opportunity came to adopt a second team, this time in the FanGraphs Staff Two league, I jumped at it. And I’ve got some work to do.
It’s outfield week! Let’s begin by recapping how my rankings compared to the consensus by reviewing my outfield Pod’s Picks and Pans.
Trevor Plouffe has elected for free agency which means Miguel Sano is slated to be the Twins starting third baseman. Sano has positive defense metrics for third base, unlike the outfield where he has been a subpar defender. This move has really opened up the playing time Sano which will help with his uninspiring fantasy value.
Sano’s game can be summed up as “trying to hit the ball hard”. When the 23-year-old makes contact, he can really hit it hard has seen by his career 23% HR/FB rate, .240 ISO, and .354 BABIP (good for a slow guy).
Welcome to the annual series that provides both a review of your favorite teams’ 2016 season, as well as a early look toward 2017. It also serves as a helpful guide for keeper and dynasty leagues.
The Graduate: Blake Snell (LHP): Control has been Snell’s nemesis throughout his career — save for 2015 — and it came back to haunt him during his MLB debut in 2016. His 3.54 ERA was impressive — and speaks to his raw potential — when you consider his walk rate of more than five batters per nine innings. He’ll also need to better leverage his 6-4 frame to generate more ground balls after being an extreme-fly-ball pitcher in the AL East. Still, Snell succeeds by missing a lot of bats and his struck out almost 10 batters per nine innings in his freshman season. With improved command of his low-to-mis-90s fastball and slider, the young hurler could eventually develop four average or better offerings (He also has a curveball and changeup).
Mike Trout was the MVP of baseball this year. He had to fend off a good season from Mookie Betts, but there was no questioning that Trout was amazing. Flip to the fantasy world and it was Betts who triumphed over Trout. With an extra 49 plate appearances and slightly better 5×5 numbers, Betts did just enough to score $3 higher than our favorite fish. Of course, if you happen to play in an OBP league, Trout’s .441 OBP destroyed Betts’ .363 OBP. Real baseball is an OBP league.
In case you’re just tuning into this series for the first time, I recommend going back in time and starting from the beginning. Luckily, you won’t need a time machine. The post on catchers has notes on important methodological changes. You can also go straight into the calculator to tweak values for your league.
For these articles, I’m going to assume a 12 team, 5×5, standard deep roster with a pitching cap of 1475 innings (most leagues are 1450 or 1500, I split the difference). I set the batter split at 65% because that produces what I consider to be the most realistic position adjustments.