The Daily Grind: DFS, Streaming, and More for September 17
by Brad Johnson
September 17, 2016
Agenda
- The Essentials
- Daily DFS
- SaberSim Observations
- Tomorrow’s Targets
Archive for September, 2016
Three Under the Radar Seasons
by Paul Sporer
September 17, 2016
Baseball is a long and glorious season and as we near the finish line, I’m more inclined to push for a longer season* than a shorter one just because I don’t want to let go, but one of the downsides of the six-month grind is that some seasons go unnoticed. A big April can overshadow regression down the road and a bad one can leave the turnaround overlooked. Sometimes a guy just comes up midseason and never really hits the radar despite performing.
*kidding (sorta)
Here are three solid seasons you might’ve missed:
Hernan Perez [MIL, 3B/OF]
Perez didn’t suffer through a bad April because he only played three games that month. The issue with him is that he was just so far removed from anyone’s radar that if you’re not a Brewers fan, I’m not sure how you would’ve noticed him until the numbers reached a level where we all had to give it a look. Perez has been a counting category stud with 13 homers and 30 stolen bases and the most impressive aspect is that he has needed just 371 plate appearances to reach those marks.
The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 390 – Streaming Your Way to a Title
by Paul Sporer
September 16, 2016
9/16/16
The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!
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Notable Transactions/Rumors/Articles/Game Play
- Logan Morrison
- Hanley Ramirez
Strategy Section: Streamers
- Friday (20:10)
- Saturday (25:16)
- Sunday (30:00)
Podcast: Play in new window | Download
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The Secret to Rebuilding Your Fantasy Team (Part 2)
On Wednesday I lamented about how my year-long infatuation with prospect Nick Williams blinded me from seeing offensive value in other places that would likely have put my team in a better position during a rebuild. Today I’ll take the same approach, focusing on the pitching side, and will use Jose Berrios as my prospect scapegoat. Like Williams, I’ve owned Berrios since well before the 2016 season began, and invested fully into the scouting reports of a potential #2 starting pitcher. Better yet, I was convinced Berrios was more “polished” than most prospect pitchers, and that his strong command would quickly smooth out the inevitably bumpy transition through MLB lineups. Fast forward now to mid-September and Berrios has a 9.27 ERA in 44 IP, which includes 28 BB’s and 2.0 HR/9. And yet, I still own him…
Using Ottoneu ownership and average salary data as of September, I limited my filter to all players currently owned for $3 or less, and then hand-selected a few pitchers who (using FIP and P/IP as quick standards for YTD value) appear to have enough future value to be at least as interesting as Jose Berrios once was to me so long (not really) ago.
Field of Streams: Episode 240 – Live With Scott Strandberg One Last Time
Episode 240 – Live With Scott Strandberg One Last Time
In this live broadcast, Dylan Higgins and Brad Johnson are joined by Scott Strandberg in a live recording to discuss A.J. Preller’s suspension, hangover lineups, Miguel Cabrera vs. Corey Kluber, Brandon Phillips being red-hot, the fantasy values of leadoff hitters, Adam Morgan being not as bad as you think lately, Michael Fulmer cooling off, picking on Jose Berrios, the return of the train outside Dylan’s house, Ryan Raburn being surprisingly cold, a Jeff Francoeur pick being “too far,” and The Daily Grind Invitational.
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The Daily Grind: DFS, Streaming, and More for September 16
by Brad Johnson
September 16, 2016
Agenda
- Nickname Seeking Player
- The Daily Grind Invitational and Leaderboard
- Daily DFS
- SaberSim Observations
- Tomorrow’s Targets
- Factor Grid
A Minor Review of 2016: San Diego Padres
Welcome to the annual series that provides both a review of your favorite teams’ 2016 season, as well as a early look toward 2017. It also serves as a helpful guide for keeper and dynasty leagues.
Other reviews:
San Francisco Giants
Colorado Rockies
The Graduate: Ryan Schimpf (2B): Schimpf, 28, spent parts of eight years riding buses in the minors before earning a shot from the Padres in 2016. A life-long Blue Jays prospect until this year, he’s now hit 34 home runs on the year between triple-A and the Majors and is just one homer shy of 20 at the big league level through 74 games. I predicted Schimpf could handle a bit league utility role way back in 2014 and he’s proving that my estimates were conservative. That kind of pop will no doubt earn him another shot at a starting gig in 2017 even if he continues to strike out a lot (30% of the time) and hit just .229 (His OPS is still above .900). Schimpf has tapered off a bit in September but it’s also the first time in his career that he’s played well into the month.
Roto Riteup: September 16, 2016
I almost feel like I should be giving a quick playoff race update in this spot, because even though this is entirely a fantasy blog, it’s hard to focus on much other than the post-season. So, let’s try it:
Relevant Winners: Red Sox, Blue Jays (!), Giants
Relevant Losers: Tigers, Orioles, Yankees, Dodgers, Cardinals
Odds update, per our Standings page:
| Team | W | L | DIV GB | WC GB | DIV | WC | POFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indians | 84 | 62 | – | – | 97.10% | 2.40% | 99.40% |
| Red Sox | 82 | 64 | – | – | 68.10% | 27.10% | 95.20% |
| Rangers | 87 | 60 | – | – | 99.90% | 0.10% | 100.00% |
| Blue Jays | 80 | 66 | 2.0 | – | 19.00% | 53.70% | 72.70% |
| Orioles | 80 | 66 | 2.0 | – | 12.20% | 48.60% | 60.80% |
| Tigers | 78 | 68 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 2.90% | 25.40% | 28.40% |
| Mariners | 78 | 68 | 8.5 | 2.0 | 0.10% | 29.70% | 29.80% |
| Yankees | 77 | 69 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 0.70% | 5.90% | 6.60% |
| Astros | 76 | 70 | 10.5 | 4.0 | 0.00% | 7.00% | 7.00% |
| Royals | 74 | 72 | 10.0 | 6.0 | 0.00% | 0.10% | 0.10% |
| Team | W | L | DIV GB | WC GB | DIV | WC | POFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cubs | 93 | 53 | – | – | 100.00% | 0.00% | 100.00% |
| Nationals | 87 | 59 | – | – | 100.00% | 0.00% | 100.00% |
| Dodgers | 82 | 64 | – | – | 93.70% | 6.10% | 99.90% |
| Giants | 78 | 68 | 4.0 | – | 6.30% | 72.40% | 78.70% |
| Mets | 77 | 69 | 10.0 | – | 0.00% | 75.70% | 75.70% |
| Cardinals | 76 | 70 | 17.0 | 1.0 | 0.00% | 43.30% | 43.30% |
| Marlins | 73 | 73 | 14.0 | 4.0 | 0.00% | 2.00% | 2.00% |
| Pirates | 71 | 74 | 21.5 | 5.5 | 0.00% | 0.40% | 0.40% |
Bullpen Report: September 15, 2016
Tyler Thornburg has pretty much been nails since taking over the ninth-inning role for the Brewers following the trade deadline deals of both Jeremy Jeffress and Will Smith. He’s accumulated the second-most WAR among qualified relievers over the last month (0.6 WAR) thanks in part to a pretty 0.00 ERA (2.71 FIP) and successfully converting five saves in six opportunities. Tonight, Thornburg needed four outs and 33 pitches (18 strikes – eight called, one swinging) to earn his 10th save of the season, but surrendered a hit and a couple of free passes along the way. All is green in Milwaukee for Thornburg.
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Mixing Fantasy & Reality: Hernandez, Arrieta, & Others
• Sorry for the lack of material as I am continually dealing with my basement taking on ground water after a flood last Friday. I sort of have the situation under control, but I see my work being sporadic over the next few weeks as I deal with the situation.
Putting a value on Felix Hernandez
I am not going to sugar coat this, the 30-year-old is performing like he is done as a fantasy option. Kaput. First, his velocity is at a career low with his previously deadly sinker averaging just over 90 mph. The velocity loss has his K/9 (7.4) at a career low. Additionally, the pitch is not sinking as much as it previous did and it is getting hit hard. Posting a career high 1.1 HR might be keeping him away from the strike zone. His Zone% (42%) is at a career low which has pushed his walk rate to 3.9 BB/9 (career high).
Some of Felix’s struggles could be related to a calf injury he spent time on the DL nursing it. Since returning, he has hasn’t performed any better. Sadly, pitchers can age quickly to a lower talent level. Right now that Felix’s talent level is an unplayable pitcher and I would guess he is projected near a 4.50 ERA for next season.