The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 390 – Streaming Your Way to a Title

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September 16, 2016

9/16/16

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Notable Transactions/Rumors/Articles/Game Play

  • Logan Morrison
  • Hanley Ramirez

Strategy Section: Streamers

  • Friday (20:10)
  • Saturday (25:16)
  • Sunday (30:00)

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Approximately 38 minutes of joyous analysis.

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Paul is the Editor of Rotographs and Content Director for OOTP Perfect Team. Follow Paul on Twitter @sporer and on Twitch at sporer.

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Anon
7 years ago

I’m all over Koehler today and Urena tomorrow as streamers. The Phillies actually have a higher wOBA on the road than at home – .301 v .281. In fact on the road is just about the only split (year. 1st half, 2nd half, last 30 days last 14 days, lefties, righties, road, home) you can find for Philly where they aren’t in the bottom 2 or 3 and even on the road they are 24th. Philly is just plain bad. Their team wOBA is .292 which basically Kevin Pillar country. So far in September they have scored 3.21 runs per game but that includes unearned runs and both relievers and starters. Let’s say the ERA of opposing starters over that stretch is 3.30. That’s Carrasco, Verlander and Maeda territory. Yes they’ve faced a few good starters over that strech (Scherzer, Gio and Nova) but they’ve also faced ATL, MIA and a lot of dreck with PIT and made them collectively look like Carrasco/Verlander/Maeda. They’ve been shut out 3 times in Sept and haven’t scored more than 6 runs since Aug 14th.

Tell me you wouldn’t win your league just starting the Phillies’ opposing pitcher every day.

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Mark Davidson
7 years ago
Reply to  Anon

I looked into it. I was as honest as I could be with myself on who was streamable and who wasn’t. This was tricky considering how ownership fluctuates with performance; expectations had some pitchers as streamable options to start the year, but their ownership has increased, and vice versa.

The results? The streamable options did fine, but you wouldn’t win your league with these streamers.

All in all I found 95 possible streamable starts (based on 10 – 12 team leagues) and in those starts, they tallied 3.98 ERA and 1.30 WHIP while striking out 435 batters in 534 IP. There were only 28 W tallied by these starters in those 95 games. Of course, after adding in relievers, the overall numbers would look better.

The other starts, the ones by pitchers who I believed to be owned, went as well as possible. there were 51 of them and they led to 30 W, 1.94 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, 341 K/404 IP.

In total, starting pitchers have produced a 3.10 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP to go along with 776 K in 938 IP over 146 starts.

Other thoughts and things that were interesting:

If you were really set on this plan at the beginning of the year, you could’ve drafted 3 pitchers in the top 7 – 8 rounds; say Scherzer, Fernandez, and Syndergaard because they’re awesome and also benefit from playing the Phillies so much. Then you could’ve streamed the rest of the starts against the phillies and you’d be doing alright. Add in Scherzer’s 30 starts and Fernandez’s and Syndergaard’s 28 a piece, plus the streamers and you’d have:

3.35 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 1132 K in 1086 IP and 72 W in 181 GS

You were right to want to start Koehler against the Phillies tonight. After tonight, he’s racked up 5 starts against them and won 2. He’s thrown 33 IP over those 5 starts and given up just 6 ER, good for a 1.64 ERA, and an 0.94 WHIP. Against the rest of the league he has 24 starts, 7 wins, 102 K in 141 IP, and a 4.57 ERA to go with a 1.54 WHIP.

On the flip side of the coin Bumgarner has thrown 11.333 IP and given up 7 ER. Cueto has thrown 13.667 IP and given up 10 ER. Baseball.

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