Archive for September, 2016

Mixing Fantasy & Reality: Snell & Reyes

Quick Look: Blake Snell

I was fairly high on Snell coming into the season, but not as high as others because I didn’t manage to get him in any league. Snell is 18 starts into his pro career with mixed results. He has a decent ERA at 3.65 and a 9.8 K/9. The bad is that he is walking 5.2 BB/9 which is the worst in the league (min 80 IP).

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Field of Streams: Episode 245 – Live With Brad Johnson: Early Edition

Episode 245 – Live With Brad Johnson: Early Edition

In this live broadcast, Dylan Higgins and Brad Johnson do a live recording to discuss Steve Clevenger being a dummy, the Orioles’ fun gift to David Ortiz, not worrying about Gary Sanchez’s struggles with lefties, Miller Park being awesome for left-handed batters, where Trea Turner goes in drafts next year, the new youth in the Padres outfield, the enigmatic Drew Pomeranz, the volatile James Paxton, Doug Fister having a good matchup, and a Rich Hill vs. Tyler Anderson showdown on Sunday.

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A Minor Review of 2016: Los Angeles Dodgers

Welcome to the annual series that provides both a review of your favorite teams’ 2016 season, as well as a early look toward 2017. It also serves as a helpful guide for keeper and dynasty leagues.

Previous Reviews:
San Francisco Giants
Colorado Rockies
San Diego Padres
Arizona Diamondbacks

Los Angeles Dodgers

The Graduate: Corey Seager (SS): I spent all of last season trying to acquire Corey Seager in my FanGraphs Ottoneu league but I was thwarted at every turn. I had no doubt the young infielder was going to be a star — and very quickly. After all, there aren’t many rookies that can become a .300-average, 25-homer threat at the age 22, or threaten to make Seattle’s Kyle Seager look like the lesser of two siblings. Corey has a chance to win some MVP awards and could eventually top 30 homers (and maybe even threaten 40) while continuing to produce a strong average. There aren’t many holes in his game but he could stand to improve against southpaws and it remains to be seen if he can stick at shortstop long term.

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Roto Riteup: September 23, 2016

Walking out of the office on Friday like:

Have a good weekend, everyone.

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Top 24 Starting Pitchers for 2017

Let me just state out front that this isn’t just subject to change, but that it will change. I don’t think that fact makes it useless to roll out an early top 24. This gives us a baseline and hopefully fosters some discussion that will impact that changes sure to come over the fall and winter. Heck, I might have an update in early November after marinating on the entirety of the 2016 season for a month or so.

Here are my top 24 with a quick comment on each:

  1. Clayton Kershaw: He sits fifth on ESPN’s Player Rater among starters despite just 135 innings because he’s insane.
  1. Max Scherzer: Had a 4.05 ERA and big home run issue through two months of season, but he’s rallied with a 2.10 ERA in his last 20 starts and now rates as the best fantasy pitcher for the season. He allowed 15 HRs in those first 11 starts, but just 11 in the last 20 along with a filthy 169 strikeouts in 137.3 innings.

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#2xSP: 9.26-10.2

Alright, we’re back for the final edition of #2xSP for this season. Like most years, we’ve had some ups and downs, but it’s been markedly better than last year, and I’m not only pleased with how season four went with regards to season three, but I’m also excited for next year.

If you have some ideas to implement for next season, feel free to leave them in the comments section.

Here’s what we’re working with so far this season:

44-45 record
3.93 ERA
8.2 K/9
2.9 K/BB
1.33 WHIP
61 quality starts

Here are this week’s recs (with team wRC+ for this season in parentheses):

RHP Chad Kuhl – 12.7% ESPN – v. CHC (106), @STL (104)

I don’t love the matchups, but Kuhl has been pretty solid this season and I didn’t love a lot of the other pitchers going on Monday and Tuesday. This isn’t the first time Kuhl has faced the Cubs and Cardinals in succession, as he did so between two starts on Aug. 30 and Sept. 5. He pitched fine against the Cubs — three earned in five innings — but the Cardinals tousled him up a bit for three earned runs in just two innings. Still, his success this season hasn’t been over that small of a sampling. Over his last nine starts, he’s got a 3.10 ERA, .641 OPS against (.218 BAA) and solid 37-12 K/BB ratio in 49.1 innings. He gets plenty of grounders (46.3 percent), doesn’t walk too many batters (2.4 BB/9) and has a slider with a 17.8 percent whiff rate. Maybe it’s the foundation of something? Read the rest of this entry »


MASH Report: DL Trends and Re-Injury Rates

Today’s MASH edition is brought to you by some questions I hand listening to Ringer’s The MLB Show podcast featuring Ben Lindbergh and guest Stan Conte (former head Dodgers’ trainer). I would recommend listening to the entire podcast as there is quite a bit of information on injuries. From the podcast, a couple of pieces of information were mentioned by Conte I just wanted to verify them.

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Paul Sporer Rotographs Chat – September 22nd, 2016

Chat will start around 2 PM!

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2016’s Increases in Batted Ball Distances, HR%, and SLG

It has been well documented that there have been more home runs this seasons compared to the past few years. It is particularly interesting because guys we may not necessarily associate with home runs have received a large bump, while the higher end power hitters haven’t had any noticeable increase. Daniel Murphy, Asdrubal Cabrera, Jose Altuve, and Brad Miller have hit 20-30 homers this year, guys like Robinson Cano and Brian Dozier are getting huge boosts to already good power production, and others like Anthony Rizzo and Manny Machado don’t seem to have any significant change at all.

There are a ton of variables involved here, pretty much everything under the sun could be brought up as an explanation.  You could point to the individuals and claim some players happened to have bad seasons last year, or good seasons this year. Maybe certain guys have corrected flaws in their swing or pitch selection.

Even when accounting for all of that, we’re seeing a real change in production this season, something that goes beyond small blips or statistical noise. Many researchers have shown, using various methods, that exit velocity has gone up this season. I’m sure you’ve already read the arguments, and if you haven’t here is a link. I’m more interested in why certain players may be benefiting while others are not. So, yes, on the aggregate, we know exit velocity is up, but how is it affecting batted ball distance, and are the changes helping some sorts of players more than others? Read the rest of this entry »


The Daily Grind: DFS, Streaming, and More for September 22

Agenda

  1. The Daily Grind Invitational and Leaderboard
  2. Daily DFS
  3. SaberSim Observations
  4. Tomorrow’s Targets
  5. Factor Grid

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